New Zealand Police

I’ve been following the New Zealand firearm “buyback” with some amusement as I ran estimates on the compliance rate based on NZ Police turn-in reports and NZ government guesstimates of the number of affected firearms. (It’s a measly 16.5% as of November 24.)

News of the “buyback” privacy breach has added extra humor value. Sorry, Kiwi gun owners who were complying; I’m sure you weren’t laughing.

But privacy issues aside, I am. And not merely at the gross incompetence displayed. I’m encouraged by the additional proof of non-compliance.

Government estimates of the number of newly banned firearms range from an early 173,000 to, finally, 240,000. I’ve been rolling with the final 240K figure.

At the end of November, 21,655 people had been paid for 36,045 firearms. That works out to an average 1.66 firearms per person.

Reports have it that people turning their firearms had to pre-register online through the breached web site. A total of 38,000 people registered and now have their personal and financial data endangered.

There are only 17 days left in the amnesty period, so you’d expect that pretty much everyone who had any intention of complying would have registered by now.

Only 38,000. Let’s assume that the 1:1.66 ratio holds true. That would account for 63,080 firearms or 26.3% compliance.

I had been projecting 19.8% assuming no sudden, last-minute rush, and turn-in rates holding steady. But I also figured some folks would get cold feet in the final weeks and decide to turn in their property, especially registered Cat-E “military-style semiautomatic” owners since the government does know who they are (but 60% of even those aren’t complying yet).

I had speculated that the New Zealand government would stop reporting turn-in numbers out of sheer embarrassment. Then they’d dust off early lowball estimates and simply declare the amnesty a success.

Now this breach fiasco just gives them a better opportunity to do so.

No shortage of semi-automatic guns as New Zealand rearms after March 15

Appears the Kiwis are following ‘the spirit’ of their gubbermint’s new gun laws.

Thousands of semi-automatic firearms are being imported to New Zealand so gun owners can re-arm after weapons used in the March 15 Christchurch terror attack were banned.

Gun dealers have responded quickly to sweeping law changes which banned most semi-automatic firearms in April, and have been granted licences to import nearly 7000 semi-automatic rifles which remained permitted.

The number of import permits, issued by police, show firearms owners are keen to replace guns headed to the smelter with .22 calibre semi-automatic “bunny guns”.

The influx comes as Parliament considers further firearm regulations and a December 20 deadline for a gun buyback scheme looms.

Police have so far collected 32,000 firearms from gun owners, of which 21,000 are military-style semi-automatic (MSSA) rifles.

Only 4000 of these were part of the 14,000 guns that already formally had to be registered with police prior to the April law change.

The smaller-calibre .22 rifles, which can legally hold up to 10 bullets and can resemble military-style firearms, escaped the clampdown as they are considered safer than larger calibre weapons and useful for killing farm pests…….

Critics say the firearms still pose a risk to the community. A Stuff investigation, The Homicide Project, showed that of 144 gun homicide incidents since 2004, two thirds involved .22 calibre rifles and shotguns.

Massey University senior lecturer Hera Cook, a member of lobby group Gun Control NZ, said New Zealand should have further restricted access of the .22 guns to farmers and other specific occupations — as Australia did.