I was going to say…’battle‘?

BLUF
As of August 2022, three independent election forecasters rated the general election as Solid Republican or Safe Republican, according to Ballotpedia.
If Missouri’s open senate seat is to flip to the Democratic party, it would take an upset by Trudy Busch Valentine on Election Day

The battle for Missouri’s vacant Senate seat
Polls and a look at prior elections would suggest this race is already settled before Election Day.

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — Barring an election night surprise, there appears to be a well-defined path from the Missouri Attorney General’s office to U.S. Senate.

The current Attorney General, Republican Eric Schmitt, is leading by double digits in most polls ahead of his Democratic opponent, Trudy Busch Valentine, a nurse and heiress to the Anheuser-Busch brewery fortune.

His commanding lead comes just four years after the former Attorney General, Republican Josh Hawley, beat the incumbent two-term Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Missouri, for a spot on Capitol Hill.

Hawley was the first Missouri Attorney General to ascend directly to the U.S. Senate since then-AG John Danforth, also a Republican, was elected to the Senate in 1976. Other big names in Missouri politics have also used the AG’s office as a stepping stone to the U.S. Senate, like Republican John Ashcroft and Democrat Thomas Eagleton, but both held other offices before becoming a senator.

That path may be trodden again on Nov. 8, partly due to the retirement of two-term Republican Sen. Roy Blunt. His surprise announcement in March of last year that he wouldn’t seek re-election left a wide-open field of candidates vying for his job. A crowded and often-times nasty Republican primary brought Schmitt to the top of the field for his party.

Sen. Roy BluntU.S. Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri will not run for reelection in 2022
Trudy Busch Valentine announced her candidacy less than five months before the August primary and beat out the populist candidate and prolific fundraiser Lucas Kunce for the nomination.

This race is one of many that will determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, but a democrat win would certainly surprise many political observers. Missouri hasn’t sent a democrat to Senate in 10 years, when Sen. McCaskill won her re-election bid in 2012, easily beating Republican Todd Akin, who was ahead in the polls until his infamous “legitimate rape” comments.

All about “ERIC”:
Eric Schmitt, Missouri’s attorney general since 2019, is aiming to keep the senate seat vacated by Roy Blunt in the Republican party.

Schmitt beat multiple high-profile GOP opponents in the primary, including former Missouri governor Eric Greitens, after former President Donald Trump simply endorsed “ERIC.”

Schmitt was born and raised in St. Louis County. He graduated from DeSmet Jesuit High School, receiving his B.A. from Truman State University. He received his J.D. from St. Louis University.

Schmitt says he was inspired to enter public service to be a voice for his son, Stephen, who was born with a rare genetic condition (tuberous sclerosis) causing tumors on his organs. Stephen also has epilepsy, is on the autism spectrum, and is non-verbal.

During the senate campaign, Schmitt has maintained that double-digit lead in the polls.

Schmitt has faced scrutiny from his opponent Trudy Busch Valentine for a 2013 vote in the state senate to allow Missouri farmland to be sold to a Chinese company.

The two have also sparred over skipped debates.

Schmitt’s track record includes multiple lawsuits against the federal government.

He says his opponent doesn’t understand the struggles of Missouri voters.

“It’s a 50-50 senate. These are not little questions, these are big questions about the future of our country and I am running against an opponent, again, who’s completely out of touch,” he said at a recent campaign event with Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

Schmitt previously served as the 46th Treasurer of the State of Missouri.

Trudy the heiress:
Trudy Busch Valentine is a political newcomer, having never run for public office before. Busch Valentine also grew up in the St. Louis area. She’s the daughter of August “Gussie” Busch Jr., who helped grow the Anheuser-Busch company into the world’s largest brewery. He also owned the St. Louis Cardinals from 1953 until his death.

Although Busch Valentine has never run for office before, she has been active in Democratic political circles. She’s held fundraisers for Democrats in the past and has contributed more than $100,000 to Democratic campaigns since 2015.

She decided to wade into the political arena further to bridge divisive politics. “It seems we have lost our ability to be understanding and compassionate for each other. We have so much more that unites us than divides us,” she said in a video announcing her candidacy.

She’s spent most of her professional career working as a nurse and has relied on those experiences during the campaign.

Examining inflation:
Schmitt has spent much of the campaign criticizing the Biden Administration for skyrocketing inflation, saying it’s been caused by “reckless spending.” He says the first step to stop inflation is to open domestic energy production.

Busch Valentine’s website also notes that families “can’t keep up with skyrocketing inflation.” Her plan to fight inflation includes investing in the economy, “where the very wealthy pay their fair share.”

Busch Valentine v. Schmitt on abortion:
Busch Valentine has relied on her experience as a nurse to craft her stance on abortion. She believes a politician has “no place in criminalizing and limiting health care that doctors can provide.” She has pledged to work in the Senate to restore and protect the right to an abortion.

Moments after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Schmitt issued an opinion that triggered Missouri’s near-total ban on abortion. In a statement after signing that opinion, Schmitt said, “I will continue to fight to protect all life, born and unborn.”

Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt signs Missouri abortion ban into effect.With Supreme Court ruling Friday, Missouri ‘trigger law’ on abortion now in place
Senate candidates on the Second Amendment:
Schmitt says he is a “constant and reliable defender of the Second Amendment.”

He has earned an A+ rating from the National Rifle Association, not supporting “gun-grabbing red flag laws.”

Busch Valentine has said she respects the second amendment, and “believes that law-abiding Americans have the right to own guns for hunting, sport and self-defense.” However, she has said military-style weapons don’t belong on our streets or in our communities.

Her website says she will support safety reforms like background checks and red flag laws.

The candidates on law enforcement:
Busch Valentine says she will support “robust funding for law enforcement and first responders to crack down on violent crime.”

She has also pledged to invest in funding treatment courts across the country to lower recidivism.

Schmitt created the Safer Streets Initiative to promote cooperation between the Missouri Attorney General’s office and federal prosecutors to address violent crime.

He has also taken several steps to encourage the current administration to prevent human trafficking and stop illegal drugs at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Endorsements:
Schmitt has received an official endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Outgoing Sen. Roy Blunt and current Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley have endorsed Schmitt along with several former GOP Missouri senators like Kit Bond, John Ashcroft, and Jim Talent. The Missouri State Council of Firefighters and Missouri Fraternal Order of Police have also supported Schmitt with endorsements.

Former Kansas City Mayor Sly James along with former Missouri Sen. Jean Carnahan have endorsed Trudy Busch Valentine, along with U.S. Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver of Kansas City. The National Education Association and the AFL-CIO have endorsed Busch Valentine.

Looking ahead:
As of August 2022, three independent election forecasters rated the general election as Solid Republican or Safe Republican, according to Ballotpedia.

If Missouri’s open senate seat is to flip to the Democratic party, it would take an upset by Trudy Busch Valentine on Election Day.