{"id":54344,"date":"2020-04-27T12:31:38","date_gmt":"2020-04-27T17:31:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/?page_id=54344"},"modified":"2020-07-04T13:17:30","modified_gmt":"2020-07-04T18:17:30","slug":"the-reality-of-american-violence","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/?page_id=54344","title":{"rendered":"The Reality of American Violence"},"content":{"rendered":"

There is a powerful and pervasive narrative about violence in America that goes something like this:<\/a><\/p>\n

The United States has lots of guns, permissive gun laws, and lots of gun violence. Other countries have fewer guns, more restrictive gun laws, and far less gun violence. Therefore, if the United States wants to achieve lower levels of violence, it should enact stringent gun control policies.<\/em><\/p>\n

It\u2019s easy to see how this simple, straightforward narrative could be compelling. But it\u2019s wrong.<\/strong> A more thorough examination of the narrative reveals it to be\u00a0simplistic<\/em>\u00a0rather than simple.<\/p>\n

If we study American violence more closely, we cannot escape two conclusions: 1) The connection between American violence and guns\/gun policy is tenuous and superficial. 2) The fundamental sociological drivers of American violence are complex, poorly understood, and deserving of the scrutiny that has instead been diverted to guns.<\/p>\n

Let us consider a few basic facts about American violence that will help us to arrive at those conclusions.<\/p>\n

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  1. Compared to most of Europe, the United States\u00a0is<\/em>\u00a0relatively violent \u2014 but that remains true even if you completely eliminate U.S. gun violence from the equation.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Broadly speaking, it\u2019s true that the United States is more violent than Europe. In 2017, most of the countries that comprise the European Union had homicide rates of around\u00a01 per 100,000<\/a>. In the same year, the U.S. homicide rate was just over\u00a05 per 100,000<\/a>. And it\u2019s true that guns are used in most American homicides. So, if the United States were to adopt European-style gun control, these murders wouldn\u2019t happen and Americans would enjoy European-style homicide rates \u2014 right?<\/p>\n

    In fact, the reality is much more complicated. Let\u2019s start with the observation that, in 2017,\u00a0the United States\u2019 non-firearm homicide rate was about double the total homicide rates (including firearm homicides) of most European Union countries<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em>In other words, even if we completely remove America\u2019s gun violence from the equation \u2014 an utterly unrealistic hypothetical, no matter what gun policies the U.S. adopts \u2014 we see the United States is\u00a0still\u00a0<\/em>significantly more violent than Europe. The United States\u2019 gun violence is a symptom of underlying sociological factors that drive other forms of violence as well \u2014 guns and permissive gun policy are not themselves an independent \u201ccause\u201d of violence. The fact that American criminals clearly prefer guns over other weapons, and are able to get them, should not be mistaken for the notion that guns, of their own accord, somehow \u201cbeget\u201d criminals.<\/p>\n

    So it\u2019s probably fair to say that, compared to Europe, the United States does have a\u00a0violence<\/em>\u00a0problem \u2014 but this violence problem is clearly not\u00a0<\/em>reducible to \u201cguns\u201d or \u201cgun control.\u201d<\/p>\n

    That observation does not eliminate the possibility that gun control could at least\u00a0help\u00a0<\/em>to ameliorate violence in the United States. However, elsewhere in this piece, we\u2019ll see that there\u2019s little reason to think that\u2019s the case.<\/p>\n

    2. The United States is violent compared to Europe \u2014 but, by our own historical standards, we\u2019re actually very peaceful, and we\u2019re continuing to become more peaceful.<\/strong><\/p>\n

    It\u2019s intellectually lazy to seize upon \u201cguns\u201d to explain the United States\u2019 relative violence. On the other hand, effectively accounting for all of the sociological differences between the U.S. and other countries that could explain the disparate rates of violence that we observe is extremely difficult.<\/p>\n

    Fortunately, other countries are not the only possible basis of comparison. We can also compare the United States to itself at different periods in time. In doing so, we can control for many observed and unobserved variables. Such an analysis paints an interesting picture of the relationship between firearms and violence in the United States.<\/p>\n

    Below is a graph of the United States\u2019 homicide rates since 1950. As you can see, homicide rates have been falling for decades and are near historic lows.<\/p>\n

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    https:\/\/humanprogress.org\/statline?p=1311&yf=1950&yl=2018<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    What does that decline in violence have to do with Americans\u2019 relationship with guns? Well, during the decline:<\/p>\n