{"id":73138,"date":"2021-10-12T12:17:01","date_gmt":"2021-10-12T17:17:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/?p=73138"},"modified":"2021-10-12T12:18:00","modified_gmt":"2021-10-12T17:18:00","slug":"73138","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/?p=73138","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

the vaccinated superspread hypothesis<\/a>
\nassessing the riddle of more recovered, more vaccinated, and more dying despite a lower CFR variant<\/em><\/p>\n

there has been a strange riddle in the covid data of late.<\/p>\n

we have a lower CFR variant of the disease that has become predominant.\u00a0delta has roughly 1\/3 the case fatality rate of prior variants\u00a0<\/a>(like alpha)<\/p>\n

far more people have acquired immunity from having had and recovered from covid. this immunity is long lasting and extremely effective. (much more so than vaccines<\/a>)<\/p>\n

high risk cohorts were significantly reduced last year. there is less \u201cdry tinder\u201d now.<\/p>\n

we have FAR more people vaccinated now. it\u2019s 50-90% in many places and in many high risk groups. last year it was zero.<\/p>\n

and yet in many of the high vaccine uptake places, we\u2019re seeing\u00a0deaths from covid<\/a>\u00a0(and\u00a0excess mortality<\/a>) rise to levels ABOVE last year.<\/p>\n

this has led many to posit that vaccines not only don\u2019t work, but that they make you worse.<\/p>\n

but on an individual level, this does not appear to be true. (though there is quite a lot of evidence that\u00a0vaccines induce higher risk in the two weeks post administration<\/a>\u00a0and that this is being accounted for dishonestly, added to the \u201cunvaccinated\u201d butcher\u2019s bill, and artificially enhancing reported VE.<\/p>\n

BUT, even if we control for this,\u00a0vaccines are showing efficacy in preventing deaths among the vaccinated<\/a>. it\u2019s more like 50% than the 90%+ being claimed, but VE against death in the 50%\u2019s should still be showing BIG community effects with so many people in the high risk groups vaccinated.<\/p>\n

but, on a societal level, it\u2019s not<\/a>. we\u2019re seeing breakouts to new seasonal highs vs last year and\u00a0epidemics in covid death rapidly following vaccination<\/a>\u00a0campaigns. (MORE<\/a>)<\/p>\n

all else equal even without vaccines, we\u2019d expect to see attenuation in covid deaths for the reasons laid out above. instead we see acceleration.<\/strong><\/p>\n

the case rate in covid would need to be 3X last year to drive equivalent deaths and higher than that to show excess. but, it\u2019s nothing like that, especially once you control for testing levels.<\/p>\n

this is showing up in excess deaths as well as covid deaths, so the signal looks real.<\/p>\n

the data has caused a lot of hand wringing and confusion.<\/p>\n

grab a seat, because i have an idea to inject into the debate, i sincerely hope that i am wrong, and i suspect a fair few folks are not going to like hearing it, but it\u2019s the best fit i can find for the data.<\/p>\n

so here we go:<\/p>\n

\n
the current surge in covid deaths is caused by the vaccinated.<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

the covid vaccines are extremely leaky<\/a>\u00a0and may well accelerate contracting and carrying covid.<\/p>\n

they allow for very high viral loads to go unnoticed and generate a new and severe asymptomatic spread vector to where\u00a0none existed before<\/a>.<\/p>\n

the high viral loads lead to greater contagion. they may lead to\u00a0greater severity<\/a>\u00a0(but this data is iffy and contested)<\/p>\n

vaccine campaigns cause superspread events because vaccination leads to a\u00a02 week window of 40-100% more covid risk<\/a>\u00a0that then\u00a0gets counted as \u201cunvaccinated\u201d because the definitions are bad.<\/a><\/p>\n

this combination makes those vaccinated with one dose or more into superspread bombs.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

you get a surge of spread that gets misallocated (and used to inflate VE) and then you get the later breakthrough cases (because the vaccines\u00a0do not stop infection<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0just mitigate severity<\/a>)<\/p>\n

these BT cases have massively high VL in often asymptomatic superspreaders that pass on high loading doses to the unvaccinated and greatly worsen the overall pandemic.<\/p>\n

this further inflates apparent VE by subjecting the unvaccinated to a more profligate and severe disease vector than they would have been had no vaccination campaign ever been undertaken.<\/p>\n

it moves the whole system to a a different valence.<\/p>\n

perversely, if the vaccinated comprise a spread vector that accelerates deaths in the unvaccinated, that would make it look like vaccines work.<\/strong><\/p>\n

ouch.\u00a0<\/strong>(told you you weren\u2019t going to like it)<\/p>\n

in the longer run, this would also\u00a0select for hotter, deadlier strains because that\u2019s what leaky vaccines do<\/a>. (more\u00a0HERE<\/a>) this would really make life worse for everyone.<\/p>\n

i want to stress, this is a hypothesis and a work in progress. it\u2019s just the best fit to the facts i can find right now and i REALLY hope it\u2019s wrong because if it\u2019s right, this vaccination campaign is probably the worst health blunder in human history and the epidemiology and politics of that will get stunningly, surreally bad.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

but if this hypothesis proves out, then calling this an \u201cepidemic of the unvaccinated\u201d is 180 degrees wrong.<\/p>\n

it would mean that the unvaxxed are being assaulted by the vaccinated because this vaccine program was incredibly ill conceived and the vaccines are not suited to task and that it, quite literally, was the vaccination programs themselves that have re-intensified what should have been a waning pandemic.<\/p>\n

if this validates, it\u2019s not the unvaxxed threatening the vaxxed, it\u2019s the vaccinated threatening everyone.<\/p>\n

OK. that\u2019s a lot to claim and there are a lot of hotlinks and cites above, but let\u2019s add some more data to flesh this out.<\/strong><\/p>\n

we\u2019ve seen the spikes in\u00a0a great many places<\/a>. they tend to follow vaccination pushes.<\/p>\n

we know that vaccines are non-sterilizing and do not stop infection.<\/p>\n

we also know that fully vaccinated doctors were carrying\u00a0VL\u2019s 251X those of prior variants.<\/a><\/p>\n

and many of them were asymptomatic. what this study did not assess was \u201cdid this vary between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated?\u201d we could not tell if it was a property of delta or of inoculation status.<\/p>\n

but\u00a0this study\u00a0<\/a>sheds some light and that light looks to support the idea of this new and potent asymptomatic spread vector where\u00a0none existed before<\/a>.<\/p>\n

here is the key finding: look at asymptomatic. i\u2019m eyeballing, but did use a tool to do it, so it looks like a 3-4 Ct variance for vaxxed vs unvaxxed. each cycle is a doubling. so that\u2019s a 8-16X variance in viral load. that\u2019s the evidence we\u2019ve been looking for and we ought to be doing A LOT more studies like this one to see if this proves out.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

some have criticized this study for not expressing overall prevalence of cases in vaxxed vs unvaxxd, but the UK variants of concern data does this for us and show the vaxxed actually running at higher infection rates when we\u00a0adjust for cohort size.<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

so i find the \u201cwell, the vaccines would be prophylactic on spread\u201d argument fraught. the data does not support it.<\/p>\n

others have countered with data like this from the FT (who have been frankly terrible on data all covid and seem to make up half of what they publish) but let\u2019s take it at face value.<\/p>\n

first off, it\u2019s easy to see the rigging of the reporting. you can see the lag while they wait for the enhanced vulnerability right after dosing to clear.\u00a0this is more bunker reporting<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n
\"Image\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

meanwhile, societally, we see this.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

and we see this below despite a 2\/3 lower CFR variant, more natural immunity accumulation, depleted high risk cohorts, and a high vaccination rate. (data will be messy this week for yom kippur but next week should be useful)<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

the idea that this data is evidence that \u201cvaccines are working at a societal level\u201d seems increasingly iffy. but the fact that they do seem to show some efficacy (even fully loaded with the high risk period) on the individual level yet seemingly accomplish the opposite societal scale needs to be explained.<\/p>\n

it looks to me like \u201cthe vaccinated become a superspread vector and re-kindle and re-intensify the pandemic\u201d fits all this data and it\u2019s very possible that “your vaccine does not only not protect me, it may put me at greater risk.\u201d<\/p>\n

and you can see spreads like this all over.<\/p>\n

look at the US aggregate data. see the weird shelves that break the gompertz pattern starting in mid feb?<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

because that break in pattern lines up with this with just the sort of small lag you\u2019d expect.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

and now we\u2019re seeing this as we look to be accelerating on all cause deaths despite all the vaccination and all the prior immunity, risk culling, and improvement in treatment and despite a far less deadly variant.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

it\u2019s even clearer in places that are already on the downside of seasonal surge and in vulnerable age groups (interestingly enough, with 85%+ vaccination rates).<\/p>\n

this is DEEPLY counter to expectation if vaccines are working on a societal level or even from a world with no vaccines at all.<\/p>\n

\n
\"Image\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

so, that\u2019s the hypothesis.<\/p>\n

i realize it\u2019s provocative and not what people want to hear.<\/p>\n

but i can find no better theory that fits all the facts. so, i send it forth into the world because maybe one of you can (and i really would like to be wrong here).<\/p>\n

have at it. tear into it. find some contradictory data or a better explanation.<\/strong><\/p>\n

let\u2019s do some science.<\/strong><\/p>\n

but your science must account for higher deaths despite more immunity and more vaccination from a variant with 1\/3 the CFR that is nothing like 3X as prevalent.<\/em><\/p>\n

it must explain surges in deaths following surges in vaccination.<\/em><\/p>\n

it must explain apparent ~50% VE to the individual on deaths, but negative VE to the society as a whole around mass vaccination.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

and for the love of francis bacon, please no appeals to authority. that\u2019s laughably absent here.<\/p>\n

the fact that we can even be seriously entertaining this issue underlines the reasons that vaccines, especially totally new modalities never before used in humans and with a laundry list of past safety and efficacy issues, undergo 6-10 years of study not 3-6 months of\u00a0truncated and slanted review<\/a>\u00a0before being rolled out.<\/p>\n

this has been a wild aberration in terms of practice and abrogation in terms of safeguards.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

and they clearly got A LOT of this wrong.<\/p>\n

remember the claims that the vaccine WOULD be sterilizing and stop infection and thus provide the backbone of herd immunity? they sure missed on that one.<\/p>\n

\n
\"Image\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

it\u2019s remarkable that having literally predicted 95%-100% mitigation in cases and gotten \u201ccannot distinguish from 0%\u201d that none of these \u201cexperts\u201d or \u201cauthorities\u201d have changed their policies or prescriptions.<\/p>\n

hard to see that as \u201cplaying on the level\u201d or \u201cchanging you mind as new evidence emerged.\u201d<\/p>\n

but that\u2019s where we need to play if we want to get at the truth, even if it\u2019s not a truth we want to hear.<\/p>\n

vamanos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

the vaccinated superspread hypothesis assessing the riddle of more recovered, more vaccinated, and more dying despite a lower CFR variant there has been a strange riddle in the covid data of late. we have a lower CFR variant of the disease that has become predominant.\u00a0delta has roughly 1\/3 the case fatality rate of prior variants\u00a0(like … Continue reading “”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-73138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-health-medicine","category-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=73138"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73138\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":73139,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73138\/revisions\/73139"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=73138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=73138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=73138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}