{"id":74966,"date":"2021-12-02T12:34:30","date_gmt":"2021-12-02T18:34:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/?p=74966"},"modified":"2021-12-02T12:34:30","modified_gmt":"2021-12-02T18:34:30","slug":"74966","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/?p=74966","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

Comment O’ The Day
\nI\u2019m not actually sure that a nation of people who own nothing will be as easy to control as the powers that be seem to believe.<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Own Nothing and Love It<\/a>
\nAn unholy alliance of planners, financiers, and leftists wants everyone to live in mass social housing developments.<\/em><\/p>\n

From the ancient world to modern times, the class of small property owners have constituted the\u00a0sine qua non<\/em>\u00a0of democratic self-government. But today this class is under attack by what\u00a0Aristotle<\/a>\u00a0described as an\u00a0oligarchia,\u00a0<\/em>an unelected power elite that controls the political economy for its own purposes. In contrast, the rise of small holders were critical to the re-emergence and growth of democracy first in the Netherlands, followed by North America, Australia, and much of Europe.<\/p>\n

Today the current class of small holders face a threat from two powerful hegemonies, tech and financial interests, and increasingly intrusive bureaucracies. Both favor policies that would force higher population densities, which would likely raise\u00a0housing costs<\/a>\u00a0and lead to lifetime renting for middle income households who would otherwise own their own homes. These forces\u2014one long associated with the right, and the other the left\u2014share a common agenda, though for different reasons.<\/p>\n

Financial interests would reap a steady profit stream by creating a \u201crentership society<\/a>,\u201d where\u00a0potential owne<\/a>rs are transformed into tenants, guaranteeing\u00a0the benefits<\/a>\u00a0of increasing land values. Today\u00a0pension funds and Wall Street firms<\/a>\u00a0are buying up single family homes, often at prices too high for the average buyer. For their part, the planning clerisy believes that dense urbanism is socially, economically, and environmentally superior; some even favor a return to public housing, which not long ago lost was rejected as a massively failed experiment.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Density Delusions<\/strong><\/p>\n

For much of the recent past, density advocates insisted that the public, particularly\u00a0the young and educated<\/a>, wanted out of private single family houses. But in virtually every major country the vast bulk of people have chosen suburban and exurban locations\u2014in the U.S., Canada, UK, Australia, and Western Europe, including\u00a0London and Paris<\/a>, as well as Toronto. Even New York City, with its surprising increase since 2010, has gained only 900,000 residents since 1950, while the suburbs have grown more than six million.\u00a0Some density advocates<\/a>\u00a0see high house prices as reflective of economic prowess, but suburbs account for\u00a0the largest share<\/a>\u00a0of new jobs in both Europe and the U.S., where suburbs dominate\u00a0new patents<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For years, surveys have\u202fconsistently shown<\/a>\u202fthat the majority of Americans of\u202fevery generation<\/a>\u202fprefer a single-family home with a yard over living in a condo or apartment.\u00a0Two thirds of millennials<\/a>, before the pandemic, favored suburbs as their preferred residence, and they overwhelmingly place priority\u00a0on homeownership<\/a>, in fact more than earlier generations. Moreover, since 2000 minorities have accounted for\u00a0roughly 96<\/a>\u00a0percent of suburban and exurban growth.<\/p>\n

These preferences<\/a>\u00a0have only been\u202fstrengthened<\/a>\u202fby the pandemic, which generally hit hardest in urban areas with overcrowded housing, stressed transit, as well as entrenched poverty.\u00a0Realtors<\/a>\u00a0report a growing interest in suburbs, leading to strong price increases occurring in the suburbs, and exurbs. This is a global phenomenon, with people heading to the periphery not only in\u00a0Australia<\/a>\u00a0but also in France, Canada, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere.\u00a0France 24<\/em><\/a>, a government owned international television service produced a program on the pandemic related exodus from Paris. The pandemic has also sparked\u00a0a surge in prices<\/a>\u00a0for less dense parts of Britain.<\/p>\n

Work from Anywhere<\/strong><\/p>\n

The rise of remote work suggests this shift may be just starting. Globally, some\u202f80 percent of workers<\/a>\u202fexpressed a desire to work from home at least some of the time with nearly one-third of employees would prefer working remotely full time. A poll commissioned by\u00a0Bloomberg\u00a0<\/a>found that 39 percent of employees would consider quitting if \u201ctheir employers were not flexible about remote work.\u201d Overall, according to a\u00a0recent Upwork survey<\/a>, as many as 14 to 23 million remote workers may relocate as a consequence of the pandemic, largely to more affordable, generally less dense places to live.<\/p>\n

The conversion of the high-rise office space into what\u00a0urbanist Richard Florida<\/a>\u00a0describes as the \u201cthe last relic of the industrial age\u201c suggests a future more likely dispersed than concentrated. The shift to remote work covers a large part of the workforce which historically filled high-rise offices\u2014media, analysts, programmers, marketers, and designers.<\/p>\n

When the pandemic ends, a \u201cresidual fear of proximity\u201d and the preference for less commute time will mean that roughly 20 percent or more of all work will be done from home, almost four times the already-growing rate before the pandemic. Another study from the\u00a0University of Chicago<\/a>\u00a0study suggests as many as 34 percent of American workers could do their jobs remotely; in Silicon Valley that number approaches 50 percent.<\/p>\n

Overall, it is widely expected\u00a0that office rents<\/a>\u00a0will not recover for at least five years. Things could get ugly as some\u00a0$2 trillion<\/a>\u00a0in commercial real estate debt becomes due by 2025, particularly in the largest transit dependent central business districts, reflecting in part\u00a0reluctance among commuters<\/a>\u00a0to ride public conveyances as well as a preference for hybrid working arrangements.<\/p>\n

One would think planners would try to best accommodate these clear trends. Instead, many seem determined to restrain people through urban containment policies that limit peripheral development. These policies drive up costs throughout the developed urban area. Moreover, the impact on affordability is not limited to houses\u2014higher rents are strongly\u00a0correlated<\/a>\u00a0with higher house prices.<\/p>\n

Cali Blues<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nowhere is the conflict between urban planning and the market greater than in California. According to the current planning orthodoxy and many politicians, single family houses are an environmental disaster and even\u00a0racist<\/a>. Yet\u00a0minorities<\/a>\u00a0(such as Hispanics and African Americans) have been flocking to the state\u2019s suburbs and exurbs, accounting for\u00a0all suburban and exurban growth<\/em>\u00a0between 2010 and 2015-19 in the state\u2019s six largest metropolitan areas.<\/p>\n

One would think that meeting minority aspirations would appeal to California\u2019s famously progressive planning establishment. But they and their well-financed\u00a0YIMBYs<\/a>\u00a0(Yes in My Backyard) allies have worked overtime to ban single family zoning and push new development towards the expensive and congested coast, despite the fact that three out of four Californians,\u00a0according to a poll by former Obama campaign pollster David Binder<\/a>, do not want such bans imposed.<\/p>\n

People in California, like elsewhere, are leaving the dense urban areas. Places like Los Angeles and San Jose have experienced large rates of net domestic outmigration. In contrast, the Inland Empire (Riverside-San Bernardino), just east of Los Angeles and Orange counties, ranked as the biggest destination in 2020 after Phoenix, according to a\u00a0Wall Street Journal<\/em>\u00a0analysis. The big allure of the Inland Empire is single-family houses, which make up 74 percent of the housing stock, compared to 57 percent in Los Angeles. Sixty-four percent of Inland Empire households are homeowners compared to only 48 percent in Los Angeles; rates of homeownership for blacks and Hispanics, who are flocking there, are 20 percentage points higher than adjacent metro Los Angeles, according to data in the American Community Survey.<\/p>\n

In their struggle to suppress popular aspirations, the planners have strong support from an unlikely source\u2014Wall Street investors and libertarian policy shops. Though they often claim to oppose all zoning, they have supported efforts to end urban zoning while not opposing efforts to cut off suburban and exurban development,<\/a>\u00a0protecting the planners\u2019 right flank.<\/p>\n

The case made by the density lobby revolves around the notion that de-regulating markets and promoting density are critical to greater affordability. But studies done in several regions, including\u00a0Vancouver in Canada<\/a>, Europe, and the United States reveal that, if anything, dense areas are associated with more expensive housing, not lower prices. California has\u00a0the highest urban density<\/a>\u00a0of any state yet has the worst housing affordability and rents of any state, except Hawaii, as well as the second lowest homeownership rate.<\/p>\n

But the happy marriage of pro-density advocates on the right and left seems unlikely to last. As capital markets will not produce affordable apartments under current land costs and regulatory pressure, progressives are turning back to policies like strict rent control and a new emphasis on government-built housing. We see signs of this shift in\u00a0Berlin<\/a>, which recently passed legislation to have the city expropriate housing developments owned by large corporations with over 3000 units, some 11 percent of all apartments in the city. Protests against big Wall Street real estate firms have also grown in\u00a0Spain<\/a>, including squatting by displaced tenants of properties owned by financial giants and harsh\u00a0new rent controls<\/a>. Concerns were raised in the recent election that\u00a0Canada<\/a>\u00a0might implement homeowner equity for renters as a means of reducing inequality.<\/p>\n

Such thinking is becoming more commonplace in the United States, too. Rent control is on the upsurge, particularly in places like\u00a0California<\/a>, Oregon, and, just this November, in\u00a0St. Paul, Minnesota<\/a>. Convinced that the market solutions are failing, many on the\u00a0American left<\/a>\u00a0believe the private housing market needs to be replaced with homes built for people by the state.<\/p>\n

It is virtually impossible to imagine where the money to finance massive subsidized housing would come from. But there may be a better way: expand our urban areas to accommodate demand for affordable housing.<\/p>\n

Home on the Range<\/strong><\/p>\n

There remains ample land in America, where only 3 percent of the country is urbanized. Census data indicate that as much as\u00a080 percent of our metropolitan areas<\/a>\u00a0are rural or unoccupied. In states like Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and most spectacularly Texas, we see new developments offering affordable, safe, and family friendly communities for middle- and working-class people.<\/p>\n

The most potent objections by planners and politicians are environmental\u2014an\u00a0id\u00e9e fixe<\/em>\u00a0for progressive think tanks like\u00a0Brookings<\/a>. Yet there has been little examination of the environmental gains from remote working and the related elimination of the work trip. The latest\u00a0Urban Mobility Report<\/em>\u00a0indicates that,\u00a0among California\u2019s seven metropolitan areas<\/a>\u00a0with more than 1,000,000 residents, there was an average reduction in excess fuel consumed due to traffic congestion during peak periods in 2020.<\/p>\n

The environmental impacts of suburbia, even before the rise of remote work, have never been as dire as alarmists insist. A\u00a0study in Australia<\/a>\u00a0a decade ago found that when common areas\u2014elevators, pools, garages\u2014and lifestyle preferences are considered, inhabitants of single-family homes and townhomes actually produce less GHG per capita than denizens of dense urban apartments. Another\u00a0recent study<\/a>\u00a0suggested that actual GHG emission reductions were lower in parts of urban areas with lower density housing, as opposed to denser areas where GHG emissions were driven higher by greater consumption rates and a greater share of single-person households.<\/p>\n

Increasingly, it may well be that the key issue is not environmental but one of political economy and the preservation of a large, vigorous middle class. Rather than becoming a \u201cnation of renters,\u201d as an analyst at\u00a0Bloomberg<\/a>\u00a0suggests, we should take advantage of current trends, and helpful new technology, to encourage the development of less expensive, family-friendly housing. This is particularly true at a time when dense urbanization offers little opportunity for working class and middle-class residents, as urban economist\u00a0Ed Glaeser<\/a>\u00a0has recently demonstrated.<\/p>\n

In contrast, peripheral development could help\u00a0rebuild the middle class by expanding home ownership<\/a>\u00a0and perhaps reverse the\u00a0rapid aging and demographic declines<\/a>\u2014including\u00a0a dramatic drop in marriages<\/a>\u2014that threatens our future. As former World Bank principal planner\u202fAlain Bertaud<\/a>\u202fsuggests, the job of planners and policy makers, as well as savvy investors, is to \u201ckeep their ears to the ground,\u201d rather than try to maneuver the public into lifestyle choices most do not share. More than three in four Americans, according to\u00a0Pew<\/a>, value being able to choose their lifestyle as their essential way of achieving the American dream, followed by home life, and owning a home.<\/p>\n

More important still, small owners who long have been the bulwark of democracy must continue to play that role. The old yeoman class is not out yet, but its survival depends on standing up and demanding a new policy agenda focused on economic opportunity, lower housing costs, and the building of sustainable communities across our vast and bountiful landscape.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Comment O’ The Day I\u2019m not actually sure that a nation of people who own nothing will be as easy to control as the powers that be seem to believe. Own Nothing and Love It An unholy alliance of planners, financiers, and leftists wants everyone to live in mass social housing developments. From the ancient … Continue reading “”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[62,9,55],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-74966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-comment-o-the-day","category-enemies-foreign-domestic","category-they-made-a-movie-about-this"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74966","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=74966"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74966\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":74967,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74966\/revisions\/74967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=74966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=74966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=74966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}