\nEveryone has bias.\u00a0 We all have opinions.\u00a0 That said, I think it is very clear that Kellerman allowed his opposition to gun ownership to overcome his knowledge of what good research is and is not.\u00a0<\/strong> He could have answered some of the preceding questions and come up with a solid number for what the risk of gun ownership (if any) really is.\u00a0 Instead, he produced a so called study that is \u201cjunk science\u201d at best and pure propaganda at worst.<\/p>\n
Does Owning A Gun Really Triple Your Chances Of Being Murdered?<\/a><\/p>\n Where Did This Idea Come From? \u00a0What Is The Evidence?<\/big><\/big><\/p>\n <\/p>\n 1) Kellerman Refused To Release His Underlying Until For Four Years After He Published His \u201cStudy\u201d<\/big><\/p>\n In the world of research, this is very suggestive of deception.\u00a0\u00a0At the very least, it suggests that the researcher does not think that his work can stand up to real peer review.\u00a0 As we will see, this is clearly the case here, as Kellerman\u2019s claims about the risk of gun ownership do not hold up to examination.<\/p>\n It also enabled the use of this “data” for years before it could be examined critically – which is why it is so widely accepted today.<\/p>\n 2) Association Does Not Equal Causation \u2013 Therefore This Study Does Not Prove That Owning A Gun Increases Your Risk Of Being Murdered.<\/big><\/p>\n This is a mistake that, to be honest, people on both sides of the gun debate frequently make.\u00a0 However, Kellerman (the M.D. who did the \u201cstudy\u201d) is a professional researcher who definitely knows better than to make this mistake.\u00a0 He knows very well that association proves absolutely nothing.\u00a0 AT MOST, association is an indication for further study.\u00a0 Please do not take my word for this \u2013 allow me to prove it.<\/p>\n From Kellerman’s own study, here are some of the \u201crisk factors\u201d associated with increase homicide risk, along with the amount of increased risk:<\/p>\n *************************************************** Let\u2019s look at each of these factors in order of \u201crisk\u201d.<\/p>\n Anyone who has watched \u201cThe First 48\u201d understands that illicit drug use, and more significantly sales, increases your chances of being murdered.\u00a0\u00a0In fact, the associated risk is more than double that of owning a gun.\u00a0 How many of the drug dealers included in that top number also own guns?\u00a0 My guess is close to 100%.\u00a0 Yet,\u00a0Kellerman makes no effort to determine if this likely association is distorting his \u201cgun ownership risk factor\u201d number.<\/p>\n The next highest risk factor is renting your home verses owning your home.\u00a0 Here we see clearly that association does not equal causation.\u00a0\u00a0Is it plausible that renting a home increases my chances of being murdered compared to owning the home next door?\u00a0 Could we reduce the murder rate by giving everyone a home?\u00a0 Of course not.\u00a0 Such a conclusion is both illogical and absurd.\u00a0\u00a0What may be a very real factor is what neighborhood you live in.\u00a0 In poorer, high crime areas, your chances of being murdered and of not owning your home are both higher.\u00a0 This is an excellent example of association without causation.<\/p>\n The next risk factor, \u201cAny household member hit or hurt in a fight in the home.\u201d, makes logical sense.\u00a0\u00a0Clearly, previous domestic violence likely is a risk factor.\u00a0 However, take note that this is a much higher number than gun ownership \u2013 indicating that many of these murders took place in homes without firearms.\u00a0 More about this later.<\/p>\n Next, we see that living alone increases your risk of being murdered by a lot more than owning a gun (3.7 times verses 2.7 times) \u2013 yet here again, is this association or causation?\u00a0 Are the same people who want to discourage gun ownership telling people to get roommates or get married?\u00a0 Of course not \u2013 because they don\u2019t believe that this statistic is a meaningful indicator of risk.\u00a0 Why not?\u00a0 Well, my opinion is that it doesn\u2019t fit their preconceived beliefs.<\/p>\n Now we come to the intent of the \u201cstudy\u201d \u2013 proving that gun ownership increases your risk of being murdered.\u00a0\u00a0But does it really prove that?\u00a0 Let\u2019s look at what this number doesn\u2019t tell us.<\/p>\n First, it doesn\u2019t tell us if the gun was purchased because the person was at higher risk of being murdered.\u00a0 It also doesn\u2019t tell us if the person was murdered with that firearm (more about that later).\u00a0 It doesn\u2019t tell us if the person owning the gun is a criminal, such as a drug dealer.\u00a0 It doesn\u2019t tell us if there has been domestic violence in that home.\u00a0 It is certainly possible, IMHO even likely, that criminals and domestic abusers are more likely to own a gun for evil purposes.<\/p>\n Another entire area of missing data is the legality of the firearm.\u00a0 I\u2019m certainly not endorsing every gun law in the US, or even any of them (save perhaps felon in possession), but\u00a0I do think it very likely that illegally owned firearms are much more likely to be used to murder someone.\u00a0\u00a0After all people buying firearms legally at gun stores are required to undergo a federal background check.\u00a0 In many states, there are additional requirements.\u00a0\u00a0I assume Kellerman supports these efforts \u2013 yet his \u201c2.7 times\u201d statistic makes no effort to determine if they are working.\u00a0 I think the reason that gun control advocates don\u2019t want to know if the gun was owned legally is that they know that the increased risk posed by legally owned guns \u2013 if any \u2013 is far lower than \u201cnearly 3 times greater\u201d.<\/p>\n Finally, note that the \u201cincreased risk\u201d of someone in the home being arrested is nearly identical to that associated with firearms ownership.\u00a0\u00a0It would be very interesting to know what the overlap between these two groups is \u2013 but again, we do not know. The short answer is: We don\u2019t know.\u00a0\u00a0That\u2019s right, Kellerman made no effort to determine if the firearm owned had anything whatsoever to do with the murder.<\/p>\n Here is the long answer\u2026.<\/p>\n Whose gun?\u00a0\u00a0Anti-gun rights activists would like you to believe that the association is a result of people being murdered with their own firearms, yet\u00a0Kellerman’s own data suggests that for all gun homicides of matched cases no more than 34% (probably much less) were murdered by a gun from the victim’s home (source<\/a>).\u00a0\u00a0This actually makes perfect sense when one considers that many (likely most) homes have firearms carefully stored away.\u00a0 These are counted as \u201cgun owning homes\u201d in his \u201cstudy\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0So, when a household with a shotgun in the attic experiences a homicide, Kellerman counts it as being associated.<\/p>\n Was a gun used at all?\u00a0 Unsurprisingly, Kellerman made no attempt to answer this question either.\u00a0 As a result, we know that his numbers include 100% of murders committed with knives (the 2nd most common murder weapon), clubs and other blunt instraments, and bare hands.\u00a0 All of these methods of murder are used more commonly than rifles and shotguns \u2013 which compose about 50% of the firearms owned by Americans.\u00a0\u00a0Clearly, a lot of the people included in that \u201c2.7 times\u201d stat were killed with something other than a firearm.\u00a0 How many?\u00a0 We simply do not know \u2013 but it is a lot.<\/p>\n What we do know is counting murders that don\u2019t involve the gun owned by someone in the household inflates Kellerman\u2019s numbers.\u00a0 Excuse me for believing that this was intentional.<\/p>\n Would the murder have happened if no gun was available?\u00a0 Again, we do not know.\u00a0 What we do know is that murders have been happening as long as humans have been around \u2013 and for nearly all of that time there were no firearms.\u00a0\u00a0Even today, a huge number of murders are committed with weapons of opportunity \u2013 knives, blunt interments, bare hands.<\/p>\n In cases of violence against women resulting in murder, if the man wants to kill the woman, he likely doesn\u2019t need a gun\u00a0(although he may indeed use one).\u00a0 A knife, club or his bare hands will do just fine.\u00a0 He is stronger and larger in most cases.\u00a0 (On the other hand, a woman with a firearm can defend herself \u2013 even against an armed attacker.\u00a0 The news is filled with such events.)\u00a0\u00a0It is therefore likely, even in cases where a gun was used, that many of the murders would have happened anyway.\u00a0\u00a0Only the method would have changed.\u00a0 The exact number is unknowable, but this clearly inflates Kellerman\u2019s \u201c2.7 times\u201d statistic.<\/p>\n Conclusion:<\/big><\/p>\n Everyone has bias.\u00a0 We all have opinions.\u00a0 That said, I think it is very clear that Kellerman allowed his opposition to gun ownership to overcome his knowledge of what good research is and is not.\u00a0 He could have answered some of the preceding questions and come up with a solid number for what the risk of gun ownership (if any) really is.\u00a0 Instead, he produced a so called study that is \u201cjunk science\u201d at best and pure propaganda at worst.<\/p>\n What to dive deeper into this issue?\u00a0 Read\u00a0THIS<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" No, next question……. BLUF: Everyone has bias.\u00a0 We all have opinions.\u00a0 That said, I think it is very clear that Kellerman allowed his opposition to gun ownership to overcome his knowledge of what good research is and is not.\u00a0 He could have answered some of the preceding questions and come up with a solid number … Continue reading “”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[64,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deceit","category-enemies-foreign-domestic"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75934","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=75934"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75934\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":75935,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75934\/revisions\/75935"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=75934"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=75934"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=75934"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.clergyinsupportofthe2ndamendment.org\/images\/gun-flag.jpg\")
It is accepted as fact by most gun control advocates that simply having a gun in your home nearly triples your chances of being murdered.\u00a0 The reality is that this number (from Dr. Kellerman\u2019s work of 3-4 decades ago) is nothing more than deceptive propaganda.\u00a0 Here\u2019s the evidence that supports this claim:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\nVariable\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Adjusted Odds Ratio
\n—————————————————
\nIllicit drug use\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5.7
\nHome rented\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.4
\nAny household member hit or
\nhurt in a fight in the home\u00a0\u00a0\u00a04.4
\nCase subject\u00a0lived alone\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.7
\nGun or guns kept in the home\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.7
\nAny household member arrested\u00a0\u00a0 2.5
\n***************************************************<\/p>\n
\n
\n3) How Did They Die?<\/big><\/p>\n