{"id":79624,"date":"2022-04-05T21:27:37","date_gmt":"2022-04-06T02:27:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/?p=79624"},"modified":"2022-04-05T21:27:37","modified_gmt":"2022-04-06T02:27:37","slug":"79624","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/?p=79624","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.printfriendly.com\/p\/g\/WxWYtb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">About that &#8220;GOP states have higher murder rates&#8221; study<\/a><\/p>\n<section class=\"post-body pf-candidate\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\">\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">I debated long and hard about giving\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/republican-controlled-states-have-higher-murder-rates-than-democratic-ones-study-212137750.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">this \u201cstudy\u201d<\/span><\/a><span class=\"text-node\">\u00a0from the moderate Democratic group Third Way even a paragraph\u2019s worth of attention because of how shamelessly unscientific it is, but I\u2019ve seen enough chatter about it online that I feel like I can\u2019t ignore the problems I have with it, especially since I\u2019m sure that gun control activists will be pointing to what Third Way has to say as evidence for the need for more gun control laws.<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"\" class=\"my-4 added-to-list1\"><span class=\"text-node\">Let\u2019s start with the premise for the \u201cstudy,\u201d which Third Way calls \u201c<\/span><a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thirdway.org\/report\/the-red-state-murder-problem\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">The Red State Murder Problem<\/span><\/a><span class=\"text-node\">\u201d even though their own summary demonstrates that\u2019s not exactly the issue.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"thm-piano-mop-premium pf-candidate\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\">\n<blockquote data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\">\n<ul class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\">\n<li data-pf_style_display=\"list-item\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">The rate of murders in the US has gone up at an alarming rate. But, despite a media narrative to the contrary, this is a problem that afflicts Republican-run cities and states as much or more than the Democratic bastions.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">In other words, what Third Way\u2019s research shows is that the increase in violent crime beginning in 2020 was seen across the board. I don\u2019t think there\u2019s any disagreement on that, though it should be noted that there were also areas of the country that saw\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/majority-black-cities-violent-crime-drop-2020-fd03b31d-b773-4cf4-ae9d-34cf74541152.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">declines in homicides<\/span><\/a><span class=\"text-node\">\u00a0in 2020, including blue-state Baltimore and red-state Oklahoma City. In fact, here are the cities with the biggest increases and decreases in homicides in 2020, as reported by the anti-gun outfit\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/everytownresearch.org\/report\/city-data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">Everytown for Gun Safety<\/span><\/a><span class=\"text-node\">. Let\u2019s start with the cities that saw the biggest murder spikes.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\">\n<ol class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\">\n<li data-pf_style_display=\"list-item\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><strong data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">In seven cities, the gun homicide rate at least doubled in 2020<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"text-node\">\u00a0compared to 2019: Lubbock, TX; Des Moines, IA; Fresno, CA; Vallejo, CA; Trenton, NJ; Columbus, OH; Syracuse, NY; and Milwaukee, WI.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">By the way, those crack researchers at Everytown say there were seven cities where the gun homicide rate doubled, but I count eight cities up there. Third Way looked at states that voted for Trump vs. states that voted for Biden in 2020 as their \u201cred\/blue\u201d metric, which in this case means that cities in three Trump states had double digit increases in the gun homicide rate, compared to five cities in Biden states. This completely cuts against Third Way\u2019s hypothesis about the increase in homicides being a red state problem, but it gets even worse from there.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><!--more--><\/p>\n<section class=\"post-body pf-candidate\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\">\n<div class=\"thm-piano-mop-premium pf-candidate\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\">\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">Now let\u2019s look at the cities that had the biggest\u00a0<\/span><em data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">declines\u00a0<\/span><\/em><span class=\"text-node\">in homicides in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\">\n<ol class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\">\n<li data-pf_style_display=\"list-item\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><strong data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">The seven cities that experienced the greatest declines<\/span><\/strong><span class=\"text-node\">\u00a0in the gun homicide rate from 2019 to 2020 were Virginia Beach, VA; El Paso, TX; High Point, NC; Anchorage, AK; Salt Lake City, UT; Oklahoma City, OK; and Long Beach, CA.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">Just two cities in Biden states saw double digit declines; Virginia Beach, Virginia and Long Beach, California. The other five cities with the biggest drop in murders are all in states that voted for Donald Trump. What\u2019s more, three of the cities with the biggest declines are\u00a0<\/span><em data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">also<\/span><\/em><span class=\"text-node\">\u00a0located in states that had Constitutional Carry laws in place in 2020; Anchorage, Salt Lake City, and Oklahoma City, where Constitutional Carry came into effect in November of 2019 (Texas\u2019 Constitutional Carry law didn\u2019t take effect until 2021).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">This once again refutes the idea that the rise in homicides is a \u201cred state problem\u201d as Third Way so desperately insists. Again,\u00a0<\/span><em data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">most<\/span><\/em><span class=\"text-node\">\u00a0of the country saw an increase in homicides, regardless of the presidential vote. And two states made both lists; California and Texas. Those states have diametrically opposed gun laws, but gun homicides spiked in Lubbock in 2020 just like they did in Fresno and Vallejo, California, and they plunged in El Paso as well as Long Beach, California.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">You simply can\u2019t read too much into one year\u2019s crime statistics, but 2019 and 2020 are the only years that Third Way considered.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\">\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">We found that murder rates are, on average, 40% higher in the 25 states Donald Trump won in the last presidential election compared to those that voted for Joe Biden. In addition, murder rates in many of these red states dwarf those in blue states like New York, California, and Massachusetts. And finally, many of the states with the worst murder rates\u2014like Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, and Arkansas\u2014are ones that few would describe as urban. Only\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/worldpopulationreview.com\/us-cities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">2 of America\u2019s<\/span><\/a><span class=\"text-node\">\u00a0top 100 cities in population are located in these high murder rate states. And not a single one of the top 10 murder states registers in the top 15 for population density.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">Whether one does or does not blame Republican leaders for high murder rates, it seems that Republican officeholders do a better job of blaming Democrats for lethal crime than actually reducing lethal crime.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">That\u2019s the gist of Third Way\u2019s argument: Republicans suck at fighting crime. And the reason why Third Way is putting this out there is because\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bearingarms.com\/camedwards\/2022\/03\/31\/survey-americans-trust-gop-on-gun-policy-not-dems-n57000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">poll<\/span><\/a><span class=\"text-node\">\u00a0after\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bearingarms.com\/camedwards\/2021\/11\/12\/new-poll-shows-republicans-with-advantage-over-dems-on-gun-policy-n52045\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">poll<\/span><\/a><span class=\"text-node\">\u00a0shows Republicans with an edge over Democrats on the issue of \u201cgun policy\u201d and \u201ccrime\u201d; the latter of which is a\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bearingarms.com\/camedwards\/2022\/04\/05\/crime-not-gun-control-top-concern-n57127\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">major concern<\/span><\/a><span class=\"text-node\">\u00a0for a lot of voters, including those who say they always vote for the Democrat on the ballot, but who may simply decide to stay home on Election Day this year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">I don\u2019t believe the GOP is perfect on public safety issues, but there are some huge differences between them and the Democrats.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">First, let\u2019s not forget that the addition of every blue-state gun law comes with the promise that it will actually reduce violent crime. When cities like New York and Los Angeles experience historic increases in homicides, I think it\u2019s fair to ask why those gun control laws suddenly stopped working, don\u2019t you?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"added-to-list1\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">There\u2019s also the fact that Republicans aren\u2019t now trying to run as fast as they can away from their previously whole-hearted support for defunding the police, \u201cre-imagining public safety\u201d, and even abolishing prisons. And unlike Democrats, they\u2019re also not trying to make it harder to exercise your Second Amendment right to carry a firearm in self-defense while convicted felons are able to easily and illegally arm themselves with a\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bearingarms.com\/camedwards\/2022\/04\/05\/second-man-arrested-in-sacramento-shooting-charged-with-felon-in-possession-of-a-machine-gun-n57129\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-pf_style_display=\"inline\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">home-built machine gun<\/span><\/a><span class=\"text-node\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"added-to-list1 pf-delete\" data-pf_style_display=\"block\" data-pf_style_visibility=\"visible\"><span class=\"text-node\">No, the Republican public safety strategies haven\u2019t led to a crime-free utopia, but then, I\u2019m not aware of any Republican shamelessly pledging to bring about that paradise by \u201cending gun violence\u201d. And while I\u2019d love to see the party do more with focused deterrence and other nuts-and-bolts approaches to curbing violence, the fact that the GOP\u2019s crime-fighting strategy isn\u2019t based on weakening your right to keep and bear arms with the false promise of collective safety for all resonates with a lot of voters; and that\u2019s something Third Way can\u2019t easily spin away in a junk study.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>About that &#8220;GOP states have higher murder rates&#8221; study I debated long and hard about giving\u00a0this \u201cstudy\u201d\u00a0from the moderate Democratic group Third Way even a paragraph\u2019s worth of attention because of how shamelessly unscientific it is, but I\u2019ve seen enough chatter about it online that I feel like I can\u2019t ignore the problems I have &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/?p=79624\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rkba","category-safety"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=79624"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79624\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79625,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79624\/revisions\/79625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=79624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=79624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=79624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}