{"id":91673,"date":"2023-04-07T19:40:36","date_gmt":"2023-04-08T00:40:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/?p=91673"},"modified":"2023-04-07T19:41:59","modified_gmt":"2023-04-08T00:41:59","slug":"91673","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/?p=91673","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

BLUF
\nIt\u2019s always problematic conducting polls about individual rights or personal freedoms. As a few of my\u00a0colleagues<\/a>\u00a0pointed out, our gun rights are not subject to popular opinions, and popular rights do not need constitutional protections.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe bottom line is this,\u201d one said. \u201cHad the residents of 1963 Alabama been polled regarding integration of Birmingham schools, the results would have shown overwhelming opposition. That\u2019s why rights are independent of public opinion.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fake News: Debunking the media\u2019s favorite constitutional-carry poll<\/a>
\nPoll claims majority of Floridians oppose unlicensed concealed carry.<\/p>\n

By\u00a0Lee Williams<\/a><\/p>\n

A few weeks before the Florida legislature began debating an\u00a0unlicensed concealed-carry bill<\/a>, which Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law earlier this week, the legacy media started pimping a new public opinion poll that made some incredibly bold claims on the topic.<\/p>\n

The poll, which was conducted by the University of North Florida\u2019s Public Opinion Research Lab, or PORL, alleged that a vast majority of Floridians rejected the very idea of unlicensed concealed carry. Only 22% of Floridians supported the legislation and 77% opposed the bill, PORL claimed.<\/p>\n

\u201cNot only is there bipartisan opposition to this \u2018constitutional carry\u2019 bill, but folks seem to feel passionately about it with the majority (67%) saying they strongly oppose the bill. Even among Republicans, most people are against carrying weapons without a permit,\u201d Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and professor of political science, said\u00a0in a March 9 press release<\/a>\u00a0announcing the poll.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

As you can imagine, a feeding frenzy ensued. Armed with Binder\u2019s poll numbers, the legacy media went absolutely nuts.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs Floridians apparently know better than their elected officials, public health research overwhelmingly shows that relaxing firearm regulations contributes to increases in violent crime as well as firearm-related death and injury,\u201d Caroline Light, who teached gender and ethnic studies at Harvard University, wrote in a column titled\u00a0\u201cExpect more violent crime if Florida passes permitless gun carry,\u201d<\/a>\u00a0which was published by the\u00a0Tampa Bay Times.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cPermitless carry bill closer to law despite new poll showing that it\u2019s vastly unpopular in Florida,\u201d\u00a0wrote the Florida Phoenix<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The media onslaught didn\u2019t stop even after Gov. DeSantis signed the bill into law.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u201cEven as DeSantis pushed the proposal ahead of his expected bid for president, public polling on the issue has shown it to be widely unpopular with both political parties,\u201d\u00a0wrote NBC News.<\/a>\u00a0\u201cLast month, a poll conducted by the University of North Florida showed 77% of the 1,492 respondents were somewhat or strongly opposed to the permitless carry legislation, a number that included 62% of Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n\"\"<\/picture>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>
PORL faculty director and professor of political science, Dr. Michael Binder, (left) along with Rachel McDonald, PORL\u2019s 2022 \u201cCaller of the year.\u201d (Photo courtesy PORL).<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Who they asked<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

There are many ways to skew poll data, but the two most common methods are who you poll and how you phrase the question. In this case, it appears PORL misused both methods to create their crazy results.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Binder and his researchers divided Florida into 11 \u201cdesignated media market areas,\u201d or DMAs. There are 10 DMAs in the state, but they divided the large, urban Miami-Dade County DMA into two.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Pensacola DMA<\/li>\n
  2. Panama City DMA<\/li>\n
  3. Tallahassee DMA<\/li>\n
  4. Jacksonville DMA<\/li>\n
  5. Gainesville DMA<\/li>\n
  6. Orlando DMA<\/li>\n
  7. Tampa DMA<\/li>\n
  8. West Palm DMA<\/li>\n
  9. Fort Myers DMA<\/li>\n
  10. Broward & Monroe Counties<\/li>\n
  11. Miami-Dade County<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Then, based on the population size of the DMAs, the pollsters made their calls and sent their emails. Here is a listing of the DMAs and the percentage of respondents used from each group.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Pensacola DMA 4%<\/li>\n
    2. Panama City DMA 2%<\/li>\n
    3. Tallahassee DMA 2%<\/li>\n
    4. Jacksonville DMA 9%<\/li>\n
    5. Gainesville DMA 2%<\/li>\n
    6. Orlando DMA 21%<\/li>\n
    7. Tampa DMA 24%<\/li>\n
    8. West Palm DMA 10%<\/li>\n
    9. Fort Myers DMA 7%<\/li>\n
    10. Broward & Monroe Counties 9%<\/li>\n
    11. Miami-Dade County 10%<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      If you\u2019re unfamiliar with Florida\u2019s demographics, only two of the DMAs \u2014 Pensacola and Panama City \u2014 are from the Panhandle, the deepest red, conservative epicenter of the state. The remaining nine DMAs are large, urban centers, which are far more liberal than the rest of the state. As a result, only 6% of the respondents came from traditionally conservative areas.<\/strong><\/p>\n

      While the pollsters claim that of the 1,452 registered voters surveyed, 36% were Republicans, there\u2019s a massive difference between Republicans from the Panhandle or elsewhere in the state, and Republicans from Miami-Dade.<\/p>\n

      Florida\u2019s gun owners will neither forget nor forgive former Senator Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, a Miami Republican who singlehandedly killed open carry and campus carry bills in 2016 by refusing to hold hearings for the bills in the Judiciary Committee that he chaired. Today, de la Portilla\u2019s 2016 actions are what gun owners have come to expect from downstate Republicans.<\/p>\n

      In an interview with the Second Amendment Foundation\u2019s Investigative Journalism Project, Binder said PORL is nonpartisan, and he claimed no one paid for or commissioned the poll. PORL chose the topics on its own, and he defended his methodology, even though only 6% of the respondents were from conservative areas.<\/p>\n

      \u201cTypically, each year during the legislative session we look through some of the bills and there\u2019s conjecture on what might become an issue,\u201d Binder said. \u201cOur respondents are weighted to the registered voters. There\u2019s a whole lot fewer people out there than in Sarasota, or wherever.\u201d<\/p>\n

      <\/a><\/p>\n

      What they asked<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
      \n
      Here\u2019s what Binder\u2019s pollsters asked the respondents: \u201cA bill has been introduced in the Florida House of Representatives that would allow Floridians to carry a concealed weapon without a license, as long as they meet certain criteria. The new law would not require safety training courses or certificates to carry a concealed weapon. Do you support or oppose the passage of this bill into law?\u201d<\/div>\n
      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

      There are more than a few issues with this question. The \u201ccertain criteria\u201d law-abiding Floridians must meet to lawfully carry arms is lengthy and definitive. Also, Binder\u2019s pollsters wrote \u201csafety training courses,\u201d which the requirements for a Florida Concealed Weapon or Firearm License call \u201cfirearm or safety course.\u201d<\/p>\n

      Asked whether \u201csafety training courses\u201d was more sensational than \u201cfirearms training or safety course,\u201d<\/p>\n

      Binder defended the wording.<\/p>\n

      \u201cI don\u2019t know how different that is,\u201d he said. \u201cHonestly, you know, this is the difficulty in writing questions about bills. It\u2019s important to do. You can\u2019t read the whole bill. It\u2019s hard to manage piecing out what\u2019s important and keeping it readable at a interpretable level. Often times they\u2019re not written for the general public.\u201d<\/p>\n

      Asked about his background, Binder said he is a registered Republican who owns no guns. \u201cI do not. My family does,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

      Asked if he supports the Second Amendment, Binder said, \u201cI support the constitution. You could ask that question a myriad of different ways and get different answers.\u201d<\/p>\n

      Asked whether he actually believes that 77% of Floridians oppose unlicensed concealed carry, Binder said, \u201cI think it\u2019s possible, yeah. Will I bet my life on it? I wouldn\u2019t bet my life on any public opinion poll. They\u2019re more reflective than small groups or organizations that are lobbying on any topic. Many fewer people don\u2019t own guns than own guns.\u201d<\/p>\n

      Takeaways<\/strong><\/h4>\n
      \n
      \n
      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

      It\u2019s always problematic conducting polls about individual rights or personal freedoms. As a few of my\u00a0colleagues<\/a>\u00a0pointed out, our gun rights are not subject to popular opinions, and popular rights do not need constitutional protections.<\/p>\n

      \u201cThe bottom line is this,\u201d one said. \u201cHad the residents of 1963 Alabama been polled regarding integration of Birmingham schools, the results would have shown overwhelming opposition. That\u2019s why rights are independent of public opinion.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      BLUF It\u2019s always problematic conducting polls about individual rights or personal freedoms. As a few of my\u00a0colleagues\u00a0pointed out, our gun rights are not subject to popular opinions, and popular rights do not need constitutional protections. \u201cThe bottom line is this,\u201d one said. \u201cHad the residents of 1963 Alabama been polled regarding integration of Birmingham schools, … Continue reading “”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[64,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-91673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deceit","category-rkba"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91673","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=91673"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91673\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91676,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91673\/revisions\/91676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=91673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=91673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/milesfortis.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=91673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}