As Ranchers Sell Their Calf Producing Cows, Major Cattle Deficit Predicted in 2024
The drought hit a turning point in Texas last weekend as ranchers made a mad dash to the sale barns, liquidating unprecedented amounts of beef cattle. Cattle industry leader Corbitt Wall, host of the FEEDER FLASH at NationalBeefWire.com gives an update on drought conditions across Texas. In his words, the effects of this drought combined with economic factors (fuel and fertilizer prices) are “unbelievable” with 3 mile line of trailers for the dropoff line at Emory Texas sale barn. The sale barn received such a surplus that they were auctioning off cattle through 5am the next morning.
This sale barn was 30 miles south of me and I was an eyewitness to these unbelievable lines. My local sale barn was packed. It is real.
As far as I am finding, hay bales are at minimum $85 for 4×5’ rounds (if you can find them). $100-125 per bale by fall will not be out of the question. For reference, 2021 prices in my area were $50/bale for 5×6’ rounds.
This drought-induced cattle liquidation is going to disrupt our meat supply chain in previously unforeseen ways… which says a lot given everything it has been through in the past two years. The cows being sold at these sale barns are ones that would, in normal circumstances, be producing calves for 4-5 more years. Instead, they are going to feed lots.
With so many productive cows heading to slaughter and not producing calves, the US is going to face a major beef cattle deficit in 2024.
- Live Cattle prices will explode. Ranchers will be attempting to restock their ranch and that 3 mile line to sell will be replaced (at least in part), by a line to buy. That line to buy will be shorter, however, because with the exorbitant cost of inputs, many ranchers will go out of business permanently.
- Foreign beef imports will drastically increase. To cover for the deficit stateside meat packers will increase beef imports from South America. Meatpacking giant JBS is actually a Brazilian owned company. JBS has an Argentine slaughter facility that has a capacity of 500,000 head of beef cattle per year. They are already in the practice of importing foreign beef carcasses. This increased reliance on imports is going to further destroy American food infrastructure.
And this is where I am looking straight at you right now: If you have 3-5 acres, one of the best things you can do for both personal and national security is to go buy one of these cows. The book: Salad Bar Beef will be your roadmap will give you step by step instructions on how to raise your own grass fed beef as an absolute beginner. Please bypass Amazon and purchase at shopshepherdess.com, it would really support my work!
It’s exactly what I did (with no previous farming experience) and I outline the whole process of raising 1000 lb of beef as a beginner in this video: Raising 1000lb of Beef as an absolute beginner.
-the Shepherdess