NSSF-Adjusted NICS Numbers for October Show Gun Sales Uptick

The October 2026 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,402,422 is an increase of 7.9 percent compared to the October 2025 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,299,312, and an uptick from September.

NSSF provided the numbers Tuesday.

For comparison, the unadjusted October 2026 FBI NICS figure of 2,104,063 reflects an 8.1 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 2,289,774 in October 2025.

“It is evident that gun owners are already voting with their wallets when it comes to their Second Amendment rights, even as Americans are heading to their polling places to vote in federal and state elections,” noted Mark Oliva, NSSF managing director for Public Affairs. “The October report of a 7.9 percent increase of background checks for the sale of a firearm at retail, compared to a year ago, is a significant increase that shows Americans invest in their personal safety and right to keep and bear arms.

“Month-after month,” he continued, “Americans prove that they reject unconstitutional gun control when they show up to the gun counter and legally buy guns. This right is no less important than the right to freely choose representation in government. By the millions, Americans are making their voices heard. NSSF will continue to work to ensure the ability for law-abiding citizens to freely purchase the firearms of their choosing is protected by the next Congress and state legislatures.”

  • Top-5 States for Adjusted NICS Checks:           TX, FL, CA, PA, VA
  • Top-5 States for FBI NICS Handgun Checks:    FL, TX, PA, CA, TN
  • Top-5 States for FBI NICS Long Gun Checks:   TX, PA, FL, CA, WI

NSSF noted that 28 states currently have at least one qualified alternative permit, which under the Brady Act allows the permit-holder, who has undergone a background check to obtain the permit, to purchase a firearm from a licensed dealer without a separate additional background check for that transfer. The number of NICS checks in these states does not include these legal transfers based on qualifying permits and NSSF does not adjust for these transfers.

The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases, the organization notes in a press release. NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016.

Though not a direct correlation to firearms sales, the NSSF-adjusted NICS data provide an additional picture of current market conditions. In addition to other purposes, NICS is used to check transactions for sales or transfers of new or used firearms, the group said.

It should be noted that these statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold or sales dollars. Based on varying state laws, local market conditions and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale.

“To ban guns because the criminals use them is to tell the law abiding that their rights and liberties depend not on their own conduct, but on the conduct of the guilty and lawless.” – Lysander Spooner


What Do Mexican Drug Cartels Have to Do With Your Second Amendment Rights?

If Mexican drug cartels started using Toyota pickup trucks to transport fentanyl across the border, would that somehow undermine your constitutional right to travel? Of course not. But according to gun control attorney Jonathan Lowy, the fact that Mexican cartels use some AR-15s purchased in the United States and smuggled across the border should count against the Second Amendment rights of millions of Americans who own the same type of rifle.

Lowy has apparently discovered a new way to interpret the Constitution: the more criminals like something, the fewer rights the rest of us should have.

The longtime gun control activist, who helped represent the Mexican government in its doomed lawsuit against the U.S. firearms industry trying to hold it responsible for cartel violence south of the border, recently presented his novel argument to the Supreme Court in an amicus brief for his group Global Action on Gun Violence in defense of “assault weapon bans.” Now Lowy has elaborated in a column at Substack, where he contends that “Mexican crime guns shouldn’t create a constitutional right.”

GAGV’s brief highlights a largely overlooked issue relevant to the case: a significant portion of the demand for U.S.-sold assault weapons comes from Mexican drug cartels and other foreign criminal organizations.

That matters because Petitioners’ constitutional argument rests heavily on production and sales figures. They contend that weapons “in common use” are protected by the Second Amendment, that millions of assault weapons have been sold in the United States, and therefore there is a Constitutional right to AR-15s.

There’s a few problems with this argument, as GAGV’s brief points out. First, sales are not the same as possession by law-abiding Americans for lawful purposes. Hundreds of thousands of assault rifles are purchased in the United States by straw purchasers for foreign criminal organizations, including Mexican cartels.

A rifle bought in Texas or Arizona and trafficked to Mexico or elsewhere (or interdicted by law enforcement before making it across the border) remains part of the U.S. manufacturing and sales total cited by Petitioners to argue that assault weapons are in “common use.”

Yet that rifle may be used in Mexico to protect a drug shipment, enforce cartel control, commit a kidnapping, attack a rival organization, or confront police or military forces.

These weapons are highly prized by cartels, often selling “for double the purchase price or more in Mexico.” Estimates suggest that “between 250,000 to 1 million firearms [are] trafficked from the U.S. to Mexico each year.”

And how many of those are legal purchases by the Mexican government that are diverted to cartel members? As Shayl Attkisson reported last October, “the Mexican government was the top buyer of U.S. guns later traced to crime scenes in Mexico” from 2016 to 2023.

Keep in mind that not all of those firearms are AR-15s. Lowy’s figure includes all kinds of firearms, not just the semi-automatic centerfire rifles in question in the Viramontes case. I can understand why the gun control activist would want to make it seem like a large portion of legal sales of these firearms end up in the hands of the Mexican drug cartels, but there’s simply no evidence that’s the case.

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BLUF:
The record does show a career ATF lawyer who sat at the center of the agency’s biggest fights over the last few years. He did it almost entirely out of sight. If he really is now one of the agency’s senior lawyers, gun owners should start paying attention to the name.

The ATF Lawyer You’ve Never Heard Of: William J. Ryan’s Paper Trail on Braces, Forced Reset Triggers and Gun Trusts

Most gun owners couldn’t pick William J. Ryan out of a lineup. Nearly everything he has said about guns in public is buried in court filings. But if you owned a pistol brace in 2023, built an NFA collection through a trust, or bought a forced reset trigger, Ryan’s work touched you. Now he’s replacing Robert Leider as Acting Chief Counsel for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF).

From Marine Lawyer to ATF’s Classification Chief

Ryan joined the ATF in April 2009 as a firearms and explosives attorney in Martinsburg, West Virginia, according to his own court declarations and a conference speaker bio. Before that, he was a Marine Corps judge advocate at Camp Pendleton. By early 2023, he was Acting Chief of the Firearms and Ammunition Technology Division (FATD). By that summer, he was signing filings as Chief.

Today his LinkedIn profile describes him as “Deputy Chief Counsel for a Federal Agency” who supervises 100 attorneys. The profile doesn’t name the agency. ATF is the obvious bet given his whole career, but I couldn’t confirm the agency or when he took the job, so treat that title as his own description, not an official one.

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That’s why our enemies have been telling us to be tolerant.

Well, clearly it’s the democraps, that’s who.


Who’s Behind the Mystery Group Trying to Turn Gun Owners Against Republicans?

In the final days of the midterm elections, a group that’s shrouded in mystery is spending some serious money in an attempt to undercut Republican candidates’ support from gun owners.

According to NBC News, an outfit called “Stand Your Ground” is involved in at least three races around the country: Florida’s 14th Congressional District; where Republicans are hoping to oust Democrat Kathy Castor; the 1st Congressional District in South Carolina currently represented by Nancy Mace; and the Minnesota Senate race, where Michelle Tafoya has mounted a surprisingly competitive campaign against Democrat Peggy Flanagan.

In South Carolina, the mailers are targeting Republican nominee Jenny Costa Honeycutt with claims that she “challenged our 2nd Amendment rights and piled more restrictions on responsible gun owners.”

But in a recent debate between Honeycutt and Democrat Nancy Lacore, it was pretty clear which candidate is actually looking to pile more restrictions on gun owners.

Lacore, a retired Navy vice admiral, backed comprehensive universal background checks and longer waiting periods before someone can purchase a gun.

“There is no rush to have a gun,” she said. “You should be able to wait until that background check is done, and we need to close that loophole because we’ve seen the impact of that right here in our community.”

Honeycutt, a Charleston County Councilwoman, argued that more gun control laws wouldn’t necessarily avert tragedies like the one in Oregon, and pointed to early reports that an armed bystander had been the one who took down the shooter.

“If he hadn’t had a weapon in order to do that, the outcome may have been totally different,” Honeycutt said.

Flyers from the group in Minnesota, meanwhile, claim that Michelle Tafoya backs “red flag” laws, while ignoring Peggy Flanagan’s support for bans on semi-automatic centerfire rifles and “high capacity” magazines, universal background checks, and “red flag” laws. The flyers also ignore the fact that Evertown, Giffords, and Brady have all endorsed Flanagan’s campaign for U.S. Senate.

So who’s behind Stand Your Ground? At the moment, it’s a mystery.

Stand Your Ground is not registered as a political group with the Federal Election Commission. Corporation records in Delaware show a nonprofit group called Stand Your Ground registered there less than two months ago, though it’s not certain this group and the one sending the mailers are the same entity.

However, political nonprofits often register in Delaware, where corporations have to disclose little public information.

Some of these tactics have popped up in other recent elections. In the 2018 midterms, Senate Democrats’ top outside group funded other nonprofits that attacked Republican Senate candidates from the right on guns, immigration and other issues.

As NBC News says, we’ve seen shady tactics like this before, and the Democrats have rolled out some other dirty tricks this cycle like recruiting a random Dan Sullivan to run for Senate in Alaska in the hopes of confusing voters who want to vote for incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. Trickery like this isn’t exactly a sign of confidence in Democrats’ ability to win on the merits, but at the end of the day it’s the votes that matter and not how they were achieved.

Gun owners need to be wary about the messaging they’re getting, do their own research, and vote for the candidate that will best defend the Second Amendment if elected. Some of those Republicans may not be perfect, but in almost every case they’re going to be far better than their Democrat counterparts.