Category: International

What a Coincidence: Another ‘Mentally Ill’ Muslim Goes on a Stabbing Spree in France

This time it was in Clermont-Ferrand, a pleasant, or formerly pleasant, city of around 150,000 people in central France. But it is a story that has played out many, many times before, and likely will many more times before people, after who knows what calamities, finally cast off the ridiculous fantasies of this Age of Absurdity.

Breitbart reported Sunday that “a Sudanese migrant was shot and then arrested by police after allegedly going on a stabbing spree in the French city of Clermont-Ferrand on Sunday, leaving at least three people wounded.”

It seems that this grateful refugee, who is 34 years old, “is alleged to have stabbed a neighbour at around 2:30 pm local time, before going on to attack other pedestrians. When police arrived on the scene, the man reportedly ‘charged at a police officer with his knife.’”

The charge, however, was not successful: “After seeing his colleague come under attack, a fellow officer on the scene shot the alleged knifeman, first in the arm, and then in the abdomen and side as the attacker continued to come towards him.”

This Sudanese migrant’s behavior is entirely in accord with the repeated calls from the Islamic State and al-Qaeda for individual Muslims to mount “lone wolf” attacks against innocent civilians in the West. The Islamic State issued this call back in Sept. 2014:

So O muwahhid, do not let this battle pass you by wherever you may be. You must strike the soldiers, patrons, and troops of the tawaghit. Strike their police, security, and intelligence members, as well as their treacherous agents. Destroy their beds. Embitter their lives for them and busy them with themselves. If you can kill a disbelieving American or European — especially the spiteful and filthy French — or an Australian, or a Canadian, or any other disbeliever from the disbelievers waging war, including the citizens of the countries that entered into a coalition against the Islamic State, then rely upon Allah, and kill him in any manner or way however it may be….If you are not able to find an IED or a bullet, then single out the disbelieving American, Frenchman, or any of their allies. Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a knife, or run him over with your car, or throw him down from a high place, or choke him, or poison him….

So this fellow attacked several of the “spiteful and filthy French” with a knife. He didn’t manage to “slaughter” any of them, but that was not for want of trying.

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The Second Amendment separates us from Britain

If you have been on X lately, you may have seen a horrific video of an attempted murder out of Belfast, Northern Ireland, from earlier this week. The suspect, Hadi Alodid, 30, who is now in police custody, attempted to behead Stephen Ogilvy, an Irishman in his 40s, with a knife. Oglivy suffered severe lacerations on his face and neck and the loss of his left eye. Alodid is a Sudanese migrant who entered the United Kingdom illegally in 2023, requested asylum, and was immediately granted leave to remain until 2028.
This comes after a string of high-profile murders and other crimes across the United Kingdom at the hands of largely Muslim migrants from the third world. Thousands of young girls were raped by grooming gangs across at least 50 cities and towns across Britain, mostly by Pakistani Muslims. British authorities looked the other way to avoid accusations of racism by Muslims until Elon Musk and others blew the lid off the scandal on social media. When Sikh man Vickrum Digwa killed 18-year-old Brit Henry Nowak last December, Digwa cried racism to the police, who proceeded to handcuff Nowak for absolutely no reason as he bled to death.
After the brutal attempted murder of Ogilvy on June 8, Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for “calm,” and Northern Ireland’s Justice Minister Naomi Long continued to placate Muslims instead of pointing out the obvious issue at hand. “I also know that there are many people in our community from ethnic minority backgrounds who are terrified today about any kind of retaliation or backlash against them, which we have seen in the past,” she told the BBC.
Clearly, the British government has no interest in protecting its citizens. Thankfully, an Irish bystander came to Ogilvy’s aid, beating his attempted murderer with a shovel to end the attack. This highlights the difference between America and Britain. In some circumstances, a man with a shovel can beat a man with a knife, but a couple of well-placed hollow points, even at a modest 1,000 feet per second, would have ended the conflict in a far quicker, cleaner, more decisive manner.
We are citizens of the United States; the British are subjects of the crown. Sure, our founding documents lay out the distinctions, but the true difference lies with our half-billion privately owned guns. In the U.K., guns are heavily regulated, and only half a million Brits own roughly 2 million guns, the lion’s share being shotguns used for grouse and pheasant hunting.
In Federalist 46, James Madison references Americans’ “advantage of being armed,” which he contrasts with European nations. In modernity, this advantage means the ability to defend yourself and your family without waiting for the police, which, in Henry Nowak’s case, sided with his killer anyway.
Our guns don’t prevent all violent crime. Of course, there is plenty of violence in most large American cities, but the bloodbath predicted by gun-control activists never came to pass. The murder rate is falling dramatically as the rate of concealed carry sits at an all-time high. Citizens of 29 states, over half of the U.S. population, can now carry a pistol without a permission slip from the government. Fourteen additional states are legally obligated to issue carry permits to qualified applicants. Only citizens of seven states and D.C. have any real trouble obtaining a firearm. Another advantage that Americans enjoy, and I think Madison would agree, is the ease with which we can move across state lines.
The Second Amendment did not prevent unconstitutional surveillance or deranged COVID-19 lockdowns. It did not prevent the government from importing millions of migrants who do not care to learn American values, and it did not prevent governmental atrocities such as Waco. However, we have not seen the type of crackdown on free speech, jailing of citizens en masse for “racism,” or the replacement-level importation of migrants from the third world that has occurred in Britain.
Most importantly, our guns give us a fighting chance. A Pakistani rape gang or a Sudanese beheading-enthusiast would have a rough go of it in most jurisdictions in the U.S. of A.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a writer, musician, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.

BLUF
There will be no peace in Gaza or Israel until Hamas is no longer a factor.

This Is the Face of Evil: Sickening New October 7 Report Leaves No Doubt

Most people can’t really understand evil.

Evil is a word too many people toss around far too casually. Too many people use it to describe political opinions they disagree with, for instance, especially in today’s toxic political environment. But once in a while, we have real evil thrust into our faces, and we are required to look at it, to comprehend it, and to deal with it. One such event happened right here in the United States, on September 11th, 2001. And another took place in Israel, on October 7th, 2023.

Now, a new report has been released detailing the atrocities Hamas committed on October 7th, 2023, and we are once more forced to look at it, to understand what happened, to look into the face of evil, and to understand what must be done about it.

Warning: This report presents those atrocities in disturbing detail.

Among the mutilated and butchered bodies of young women slaughtered on October 7, it was their colourful, polished nails that many of the morgue staff remember.

Bright, beautiful, shiny, pink manicures glistening amid the pervasive ‘grey and green’ of death were often the only reminder of who these girls had been just hours earlier.

Because Hamas-led terrorists had not just executed these women. They had ‘deliberately and systematically’ defiled them, as the most comprehensive account of the atrocity released by The Civil Commission today shows.

The terrorists shot their eyes, their faces and their breasts, and even targeted their most intimate parts, to destroy their beauty and rob their loved ones of a final goodbye.

Women were stripped, bound, stabbed, shot and burned. They were executed both during and after rape amid an orgy of violence in which 1,200 people were killed and 250 taken hostage.

Heads were decapitated. Pelvic bones shattered. Even after death, sexual assault continued.

There’s a great deal more in the Daily Mail’s coverage. While I will not reproduce the worst of it here, it’s important reading nonetheless. Have some antacid on hand before reading the entire piece; you’ll need it.

This image alone, this image of young people, mostly young women, fleeing a music festival, speaks volumes; the look of terror on the faces of young people who, moments before, were enjoying sunshine, music, the company of friends, young people who had nothing to do with Gaza, who had never raised a finger in anger against anyone in Gaza or anywhere else.

This is the result of evil. The atrocities committed on the day were evil. The people who committed them are evil, and in the acts described, they show that they have utterly abandoned their humanity. They attacked the innocent: Men, women, children, infants, the elderly, the unarmed and defenseless. They did this, they planned and conducted this attack targeting the innocent, because they are not only evil but cowards.

In the weeks following this attack, we saw the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) counterattacking in Gaza. It’s difficult for us to imagine the rage that must have filled the hearts of the young men of Israel who went into Gaza to hunt down the monsters of 10/7. It’s even more difficult to understand how the IDF showed the restraint they did, carefully evacuating non-combatants, using “roof knocker” explosives to warn anyone in a building that was about to be dropped. But Israel did this because they are not evil, protestations from useful idiots on the American left notwithstanding. Israel did this because they are a civilized people, and even when dealing with savages, they showed restraint.

Evil is real. It’s out there, every day. To fight it, we have to first strip away all of our illusions; we have to look at evil, bare, shocking, unmitigated, real, and see it for what it is. In Gaza, it’s called Hamas. This full report illustrates that evil with sickening clarity.

As I said at the time and still say today: There will be no peace in Gaza or Israel until Hamas is no longer a factor.

Here’s the Background on the Two American Soldiers Who Went Missing Over the Weekend

Two American service members went missing over the weekend while participating in a joint military exercise with partner nations in North Africa. Search and rescue efforts are still underway.

CBS has reported that the two soldiers were off-duty and had decided to go on a hike to observe the sunset when one fell off of a cliff and into the water below. A number of soldiers then attempted to form a human chain to rescue their comrade in the water, but failed to pull them up. The second soldier then jumped into the water for a rescue attempt, but failed. A third soldier also attempted a rescue, but returned to shore after likewise failing.

Beretta Holding Sends Letter to Ruger BOD Re: All-Cash, Partial Tender Offer

By Dave Workman

In the latest chapter of an ongoing feud between Beretta Holding S.A. and Sturm, Ruger & Company, the Italian-based firearms manufacturer has sent a letter to Ruger’s Board of Directors “regarding a potential partial tender offer for up to 20.05% of the outstanding shares of the Company it does not already own at a purchase price of $44.80 per share in cash,” according to a notice posted Thursday at The Outdoor Wire, which has been covering the controversy.

Ruger subsequently issued a terse response, noting the Board, “has received a letter from Beretta Holding S.A. (“Beretta”), in which Beretta proposes, subject to certain conditions, to commence a partial tender offer for up to 20.05% of the outstanding shares of the Company, which if successful would effectively increase Beretta’s ownership stake in Ruger to approximately 30%. Such proposed partial tender offer has not actually commenced.

“Shareholders do not need to take any action at this time,” the Ruger statement said. “The Board, in consultation with its financial and legal advisors, will assess Beretta’s letter and respond in due course.”

In its 1,301-word message posted at The Outdoor Wire, Beretta Holding asserted, “From the outset, Beretta Holding has been clear about the desire to make a more meaningful investment in the Company, further enhancing alignment with all shareholders; however, the Ruger Board responded by immediately and defensively standing in the way.”

The controversy leaped into the spotlight earlier this month, with the two companies posting their perspectives. The Outdoor Wire has been diligently posting each side’s public messages, essentially allowing readers to make their own conclusions.

Further in its letter, Beretta Holding states, “The potential tender offer described above has not yet commenced. This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer to purchase or a solicitation of an offer to sell shares of common stock.”

Beretta also encourages Ruger stockholders to “read the tender offer statement.”

“Beretta Holding intends to file a preliminary proxy statement and accompanying WHITE universal proxy card with the SEC to be used to solicit votes for the election of Beretta Holding’s slate of highly qualified director nominees at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders of the Company,” the letter states.

Well, it is one of the 4 major foods groups

CANDY CRUSH! Thieves make off with 12 tons of KitKat chocolate bars.

Twelve tons of KitKat chocolate bars went missing in ​Europe last week after thieves ‌made off with the truck transporting them, Swiss food giant Nestle (NESN.S), opens new tab said on ​Saturday.

KitKat, which is made by ​Nestle, said the truck carrying 413,793 ⁠bars of its new range ​set off from central Italy to ​distribute the chocolate throughout Europe, but never reached its scheduled final destination in Poland.

The ​vehicle and the merchandise remain ​unaccounted for.

Nestle did not reveal where ‌exactly ⁠the truck was lost.

In a separate statement, KitKat said the missing bars are traceable via a unique ​batch code.

Iran Proves Value of our Second Amendment

It is estimated that Iranian police, military and paramilitary forces have murdered more than 36,000 unarmed citizens in the past few months. No one will know the actual number until after the current regime falls.

Some of the victims were simply protesting. Others were murdered because they were caught outside, so their killings were convenient for the government’s henchmen.

Not a single member of the Iranian police, military or paramilitary forces has been arrested much less charged for even one of the 36,000 killings—not a single one.

The current Iranian regime has said very little about the thousands of deaths, but everyone knows the reason. Thirty-six thousand Iranians were murdered simply to make a sick point: Obey the current government or you’ll be shot in the street like a dog.

Iran has no real constitution, much less anything even close to our Second Amendment, so the victims had no chance of fighting back. Personal firearms were seized by the government decades ago.

As a result, the Iranian people became unarmed sheep up against the government’s heavily armed wolves. They stood no chance despite their valor and the righteousness of their cause.

These reprehensible killings can be difficult for many Americans to understand, especially those who don’t fully understand the protections brought by our Second Amendment.

As it stands now in free states, the government cannot order you to turn in your guns and trust that nothing bad will ever happen. This would never happen in Florida, Texas, Mississippi or any other free state, right?

Unfortunately, an anti-gun cancer is spreading across the country, especially in states that were never thought susceptible.

Virginia Democrats just sent a massive collection of anti-gun bills to their governor, but the authors exempted themselves from any legal issues.

“The provisions of this section shall not apply to any member of the General Assembly,” they wrote, ensuring that Democratic lawmakers don’t lose their Second Amendment rights.

Other bright-blue states are following suit. Look at their unconstitutional bills. Almost every single one bans the one weapon and its accessories that gives its owner a fighting chance to defend themselves and their family—the ArmaLite Rifle or AR.

The left’s leadership is solely responsible for all of these unconstitutional bills. They want us spending time and money fighting against legislation that was clearly unconstitutional when it was written, much less signed into law. It’s better that, they believe, than proposing our own pro-gun bills. They don’t care that millions of law-abiding gun owners will become criminals—in some states even felons—once the bills become law.

Our Second Amendment protections have been in place for more than 238 years, but anti-gun politicians simply do not care. It remains the only amendment treated with such blatant disrespect by elected officials who took an oath to support and defend the entire Constitution.

I cannot help but wonder what just one of the 36,000 Iranians would say about our current saga, if one of them were still alive. I am pretty confident they would support an individual’s right to keep and bear arms regardless of their political beliefs, because it provides the ability to defend oneself against tyranny in any form, especially from illegitimate politicians who would knowingly arrest or endanger their own constituents if that’s what their political party tells them to do.

Women in South Africa take up guns and martial arts for protection against gender violence

BRONKHORSTSPRUIT, South Africa (AP) — At the command of a female instructor, a line of girls and women, some wearing pink ear protectors, shoot five rounds at a target with 9 mm pistols as they undergo firearm training at a range in the agricultural town of Bronkhorstspruit just outside South Africa’s capital, Pretoria.

The group, some as young as 13 and others up to 65, are looking for ways to protect themselves in a country where gender-based violence is such a critical problem that it was declared a national disaster by the government in November.

“Check your grip, check your line of sight,” shouts Claire van der Westhuizen, the lead female instructor at Lone Operator shooting range, as women with well-manicured nails reload for another round.

The training course is specifically designed for women and offers practice in real-world scenarios like self-defense firing while lying on their stomachs and backs.

Femicide rates in South Africa are among the highest in the world, according to U.N. Women, the United Nations agency for gender equality. A South African study in 2022 found more than 35% of South African women aged 18 and older had experienced physical or sexual violence at some point. In most cases, the perpetrator was an intimate partner.

Joining ‘a family of support’

Sunette du Toit, a working 51-year-old grandmother, was pushed to take up firearm training after surviving a home invasion by five men who tied her up and ransacked her house, she told The Associated Press.

“I was not in a position to defend myself at that point,” du Toit said. “I had to do this (firearm training) for myself to gain my confidence back to be able to move in public, and even in my own house, without feeling vulnerable.”

She called the women’s firearm training group “a family of support.”

Firearms in South Africa are heavily regulated. Anyone who wants to own a gun for self-defense must be over 21 and pass proficiency tests and background checks.

Various self-defense trainings for women are popping up throughout the country.

EPIC FURY: Trump’s Play to Starve the Dragon?

Bloomberg reported Thursday that Beijing “told the country’s top oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline” as Operation Epic Fury continues disrupting oil shipments out of the Persian Gulf. “China’s curbs just six days into a war reflect a scramble across Asia to prioritize domestic needs as the crisis in the Middle East deepens.”

China imports “about 11 million barrels of crude per day,” my Townhall colleague Walter Curt added on X this morning, “with roughly 40-45% of that flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.”

And yes, while China is a net importer of oil and natural gas — and yugely so — the Communist nation exports refined products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and marine bunker fuel, largely to Southeast Asian, South Pacific, and African nations.

But not as of today.

“Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planner,” Bloomberg [paywalled link] continued, “called for a temporary suspension of refined product shipments that would begin immediately.”

It isn’t just China, either, according to the same report: “With virtually no oil or fuel making its way out of the Persian Gulf since US and Israeli attacks began at the weekend, refiners from Japan to Indonesia and India have begun cutting back run rates and suspending exports.”

I had a brief item about this earlier today on Instapundit, but the news kept nagging at me because it’s worth a deeper look — and, as it turns out, the petroleum exports angle might be the least interesting part.

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Kurds are a people not to be trifled with. They’re tough, and motivated. Salah ad-Din, known to us as Saladin, the conqueror of Jerusalem, was a Kurd.

Ground invasion launched against Iran as thousands of US-backed Kurdish fighters storm border

Thousands of Kurdish fighters have launched a ground invasion in Iran, according to a US official.

The Kurdish militias, based across the border in Iraq, began the offensive in northwestern Iran on Wednesday.

President Donald Trump on Sunday night spoke with the heads of Kurdish militant groups in Iraq to discuss the situation in Iran.

The CIA was exploring plans to arm the Kurdish forces with the aim of sparking a popular uprising, CNN reported Tuesday.

The Kurdish groups are widely seen as the most well-organized faction of the fragmented Iranian opposition and are believed to have thousands of battle-hardened fighters.

Their entry into the war could pose a significant challenge to the besieged authorities in Tehran and could also risk pulling Iraq further into the conflict.

Asked about Kurdish involvement, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters: ‘None of our objectives are premised on the support or the arming of any particular force.

‘So, what other entities may be doing, we’re aware of, but our objectives aren’t centered on that.’

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All The Laws That Failed In Canadian School Shooting

It’s never a great morning when I wake up and see there’s been a mass public shooting anywhere in the world. I don’t like seeing them, and not just because they bring up some rather painful memories.

But when it happens in an anti-gun country, I have to take a moment and think about the laws that are in place in that country as well, because these are all things that someone here either has demanded as a way to stop mass shootings, or will if they get half a chance.

For example, Bondi Beach.

Yet on Wednesday, we got another example when we found out about the shooting in Canada that killed nine innocent people.

Canada has a lot of gun control on the books right now, so let’s take a look at the laws that are in place that completely and totally failed.

Canada’s strict gun laws include a ban on assault-style firearms and a national freeze on the sale, purchase and transfer of handguns.

The Canadian government has banned more than 2,500 makes and models of assault-style firearms in recent years.

Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced an immediate ban of more than 1,500 models on May 1, 2020, two weeks after a gunman killed 22 people in Nova Scotia. The ban included two weapons used by that gunman as well as the AR-15 and other weapons that have been used in a number of mass shootings in the United States. “Canadians need more than thoughts and prayers,” he said at the time….

The national freeze on the sale and purchase of handguns took effect in October 2022. It does not apply to those who already were authorized to carry handguns and those involved in shooting sports covered by the International Olympic Committee or International Paralympic Committee.

Additionally, Canada has a licensing requirement for all gun owners that includes “enhanced” background checks, as well as character witnesses who are interviewed by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.

And yes, the killer reportedly had a gun license at one time, and clearly still had some degree of access to guns, despite a long history of mental illness long before he decided he was trans. None of those managed to stop his access to guns despite all of the laws on the books that we’re told prevent mass murders in the Great White North.

So what gives?

Maybe–and just hear me out here, because I’m going to get a little radical–the problem isn’t access to guns, but that some people are broken internally enough that they should be getting treatment. Maybe they should be dealt with as individuals, including determining whether they should be walking around, rather than treating every gun owner as a potential mass killer.

Because 2026 isn’t even two full months old yet, and we already have two prime examples of how gun control doesn’t prevent mass killings.

Yes, they’re rarer in Canada and Australia than in the United States, but they were rarer before the gun control laws were put in place, too. They don’t seem to do anything to make things better.

They just put the blame on law-abiding folks who have done nothing wrong.

And make no mistake, just like in Australia, I expect the Canadian government to double down.

And in strict gun control Canada….

Here’s what we know so far about the B.C. school shooting
10 people dead, including suspect, and 25 others injured after mass shooting in Tumbler Ridge, B.C.

Police say nine people were killed and at least 25 more were injured after a mass shooting in the community of Tumbler Ridge, B.C., on Tuesday.

The sole suspect was found dead inside the school from “a self-inflicted injury,” according to police.

Here’s what we know so far about one of the deadliest school shootings in Canadian history.

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Half of Canada Says ‘No’ to Gun Buyback

By Dave Workman

Virtually half of Canada—several provinces and two territories—are saying “No” to the federal government’s multi-million-dollar buyback scheme, with the National Post reporting this week that the government of Newfoundland is also refusing to participate.

According to the report, “This now means that half the provinces, along with two of the three territorial governments, have declined to participate in the buyback: only Quebec, British Columbia, the Maritimes and Nunavut are left.”

Extending support across the border for this stunning rejection is the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms, based in Bellevue, Washington. Calling the proposed buyback “compensated confiscation,” CCRKBA Chairman Alan Gottlieb declared in a statement to the media, “This is a remarkable—and welcome—wake-up call to Canada’s liberal national government, and it is long overdue. Gun control in Canada has crossed the line when it pushes a massive ‘buyback,’ which is really nothing more than compensated confiscation. What the governments in those provinces, and the territories are saying on behalf of the citizens is that this massive gun control scheme is a non-starter.”

Canada does not have the equivalent of the Second Amendment, so there is no recognized fundamental right to keep and bear arms.

But governments in Newfoundland and Labrador, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, the Northwest Territories and the Yukon have rejected the plan. Gottlieb noted that’s virtually half of Canada’s land mass.

“The people in those provinces need guns for their very survival,” he said, “and their voices are being heard.”

In a statement issued by Newfoundland earlier this week, the government said, “Government has raised concerns about the program’s practicality, the strain it could place on policing resources, and whether it would deliver meaningful improvements in public safety for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. The Provincial Government believes police resources should be directed toward tackling violent crime, drug-related activity, and repeat offenders — not toward measures that risk targeting law-abiding residents.”

The central government in Ottawa has a list hundreds of guns it wants people to turn in, and according to the National Post story, some $250 million has been allocated to compensate gun owners for their surrendered firearms.

But rural Canadians—except in British Columbia—are having none of it.

Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Tony Wakeham explained, “As Premier, I call on the Federal Government to further engage provinces and territories on this issue, and to re-allocate the resources allotted for this program toward reducing crime, drug-related violence, and repeat offenders. Decisions are being made at a federal level that are isolated from legitimate civilian use of firearms. The Federal Government should focus on criminals, not law-abiding hunters and our way of life.”

Richard Fernandez

Marco Rubio’s testimony on the Maduro op before the Senate indicates that the Trump administration very carefully awaited the right operational conditions before risking it, a process that Rubio called a “trigger operation”.

This attitude is likely to govern any action against Iran. Despite the media’s characterization of Trump as stupid and impulsive, the record reveals a decisive but exquisitely thorough command system. Given this, what might the US feasibly attempt in Iran with a reasonable prospect of success? Four types of actions are likely.

Operations to:
1. Further degrade Iran’s nuclear and missile programs through limited strikes or sanctions.
2. Disrupt IRGC command, control, and communications (C3) via cyber or targeted strikes.
3. Conduct decapitation strikes on IRGC or regime leadership.
4. Achieve full regime change or complete IRGC dissolution.

Objectives 1 and 2 have a good chance of success.
Objective 3 has a fair prospect of happening.
Objective 4 is probably out of reach in the very short run. But 1 and 2 would lay the foundation for 3 and the first triple would set up the 4th.

While there is no way to predict American action in Iran, it is likely to be cumulative and sequential with opportunistic branches.