BLUF
In order to support Ukraine, the U.S. has expended its missile and artillery round stockpiles. The most optimistic estimates claim it will take six to eight months to replenish them.
In order to support Israel, the U.S. has moved naval assets to the Indian Ocean and eastern Mediterranean.
Does this expose the western Pacific to Chinese attack? In a U.S.-China war in the western Pacific, sea power will play the preeminent role. And right now, the U.S. Navy is short of warships.
If a TV admiral says otherwise, he’s lying.
On Point: Beijing, Pay Attention: Don’t Let Ukraine-Gaza Lead to WWIII Taiwan
FACT ONE: A major land war rages in Europe. Twenty months ago, Russia invaded Ukraine without provocation and the horror grinds on with mass casualties and World-War-I-like attrition.
FACT TWO: War in the Middle East. An Iranian proxy army, Hamas, launches a complex and well-planned attack on Israel. Mass atrocity by Islamist terrorists shocks the civilized world — at least what’s left of civilization.
OK, the Gaza Strip is a confined space.
FACT THREE: Iranian proxies have fired into northern Israel — from Syria and Lebanon. Israel could hit the proxies, then retaliate against Iran. Thus the Hamas War can quickly escalate to a regional conflict involving the Persian Gulf’s energy-exporting states. The global economic effects are dire.
Is war in Asia the next explosion igniting World War III?
To be accurate, several wars afflict Asia — and several of these wars involve powerful communist China.
China wages a frozen war with India in the Himalayas — the Sino-Indian War of 1962 is not over. Since the 1990s China has waged a slow but calculated war of territorial aggression in the South China Sea. In July 2016, The Hague’s international arbitral tribunal, relying on the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea treaty (UNCLOS), issued a ruling supporting the Philippines’ claims that China had violated Filipino territory in the South China Sea by seizing islets and “sea features.”
Despite having signed the U.N. treaty (and accepted the arbitration process), China’s communists disdained the court’s authority and ignored the verdict.
By ignoring the verdict, the Chinese Communist Party declared war on international order. Yes, that’s a world war of a subtle but dangerous sort.