Free states faring far better than lockdown states in one huge way, new data show.

(Foundation for Economic Education) — When COVID-19 first came to our shores, it presented policymakers and elected officials with a crisis like nothing in living memory. In the year since, states have taken markedly different approaches to pandemic policy. Some, like New York, embraced sweeping government lockdowns and top-down mandates while others like Florida and South Dakota took a more humble, hands-off government approach, trusting individuals to make the best decisions for themselves.

The results are in — and they overwhelmingly vindicate the free states over the authoritarian experiments. First, we saw that states with the harshest restrictions didn’t necessarily achieve the best COVID-19 death outcomes. Florida has fared far better than New York and New Jersey, for example, and multiple studies have found no correlation between lockdown stringency and death rates.

Yet lockdowns have come at an enormous economic and human cost. We’ve seen mental health problems and child suicide spikes, an increase in domestic violence, an uptick in drug overdoses, and much, much more. And, of course, the economic toll of shutting down businesses and criminalizing “non-essential” livelihoods has been devastating.

The national unemployment rate was a poor if not disastrous 6.2 percent in February. Yet the just-released state-level unemployment rates for last month show that the devastation hasn’t been equal across the board. New Labor Department data reveal that many free states have returned to nearly their pre-pandemic unemployment rates — while lockdown states dominate the wrong end of the list.

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He’s not wrong, but what I think the author misses is that a significant amount of the ‘stimulus’ was payoffs to states and cities, near bankrupt with budget deficits, bond and pension fund obligations.


Biden sleepwalks into a stagflation nightmare
US economy simply doesn’t have the productive capacity to meet the demand created by Biden’s stimulus package

NEW YORK – The Biden administration’s US$1.9 stimulus package, adding to last year’s $2 trillion in Covid-19 related handouts, has the effect of feeding sugar to a diabetic. The patient is on a sugar high, but at risk of collapse.

The US doesn’t have the productive capacity to meet the demand created by the federal government and the Federal Reserve. The result is stagflation—a combination of inflation and economic weakness that we last saw during the Jimmy Carter administration in the 1970s.

There are two big differences between now and the 1970s, though. The first is the explosion of US government debt. The second is China.

Instead of throwing money out of helicopters, the US should invest trillions of dollars in infrastructure, R&D, selective production subsidies (for example semiconductors) and science education. As it is, the Biden administration is putting the credit and future borrowing capacity of the US at risk in return for a temporary boost to output.

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The fall of Chile is a warning to America

Back in the 1970s, the nation of Chile embarked on one of the boldest sets of free market economic reforms in history. The government called in the Chicago Boys, as they were called, led by Milton Friedman and other University of Chicago free market economists.

They were given a free hand to redesign the Chilean economic system with property rights, a low flat tax, privatization of the Social Security system, and industry deregulation. In 1991, Friedman wrote that Chile now has “the three freedoms: economic freedom, political freedom, and human freedom. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it.”

For four decades, the experiment worked better than anyone could have imagined. According to a study by economist Axel Kaiser for the Cato Institute: “Between 1975 and 2015 per capita income in Chile quadrupled to $23,000, the highest rate in Latin America (CNP 2016). As a result, from the early 1980s to 2014, poverty fell from 45 percent to 8 percent (CNP 2016).” Chile became one of the wealthiest nations in South America. And it happened in three decades, an eye blink of history.

The Marxists and intellectual class of Latin America always hated the free market reforms. They disparaged the Chicago boys as “fascists.” They spent decades attacking the policies (with the stooges in the American media echoing their protests) even as Chile became the jewel of South America.

The Marxists invented a narrative of “inequality,” “the rich were getting richer, and the poor were getting poorer,” and capitalism is evil.

They infiltrated all of Chile’s cultural institutions: the media, the schools, the universities, the Catholic Church, the arts, the unions, and even the corporate boardrooms. They spread their poisonous creed of collectivism to the populace.

Is any of this sounding familiar to our situation today?

Eventually, the leftists pulled off a political coup. In 2013, the Left won the Chilean presidency. The free market reforms were systematically replaced with “spread the wealth” platitudes. In October 2020, voters approved a rewrite of the constitution, and now property rights and the rule of law are in danger.

Chile is now in economic free fall. The poor are getting crushed. The rich are pulling their money out of the country. They have arrived at “equality.” Nearly everyone is suffering.

Meanwhile, back in America, we have an economic transformation of our own going on. The Biden administration promises to help the middle class by handing out trillions of dollars of free money to citizens and paying people more money for not working than working. We will borrow trillions of dollars and pray that the Chinese continue to buy up our bonds and that our currency holds up.

Many of our constitutional protections and congressional rules of behavior, such as the filibuster, which protects the rights of the minority, may be headed to the shredder. The election laws are getting rewritten to benefit, significantly, the party now in power — the Democrats. The House has passed a bill requiring millions of working-class people to join unions and pay dues. The Left is saying, don’t worry, this compulsion is going to help the working class. Sure.

A sock-it-to-the-rich tax increase is coming that will make the productive class and the job creators pay their “fair share” with tax rates of 50%, 60%, and 70%.

Will this story have a happy ending?

The answer to that question might be contained in the frightening example of what happened in Chile. It is what our children and college students should be learning in the classrooms — fat chance. The Left runs our schools now, too.

TL/DR: if traders were worried that inflation expectations are already soaring (and taking rate hike odds with them), just wait until it becomes common knowledge that Biden is hoping to more than double the funding needs for more government stimmies in just a few months…

What’s Next: Here Comes Biden’s $2 Trillion Infrastructure Package

Earlier today we published a recap of Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan from Rabobank’s Philip Marey in which he observed that “the Democratic approach may have spoilt the mood for bipartisanship in the near term. Republicans claim that the Democrats were not serious about finding a bipartisan consensus.” In short, since not a single Republican voted for the American Rescue Plan and centrist Democratic senators have shown that they are willing to use their leverage in the 50-50 Senate. “this will increasingly anger progressives as their left wing agenda continues to be watered down by senators of their own political party. Therefore, if Biden does not proceed with caution, this could already have been the high point of his administration.

That would be the rational view. Alternatively, in a world where a flood of new debt is the only option left to perpetuating a failed status quo, one can also argue that record polarization notwithstanding, it will be in the best interest of both republicans and democrats to push the current spending spree to its absurd limits.

That’s where Biden’s upcoming boondoggle – his infrastructure plan – comes in, and as Marey concedes, “if you think that $1.9 trillion is a lot of money, this does not mean that Democrats are going to stop their spending spree here.”

Below is the Rabobank’s strategist preview of what could be the next big thing from the Biden admin: the $2 trillion infrastructure deal.

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TRUMP WAS RIGHT:
Gas Is at $2.75 a Gallon and Projected to Go Nowhere But Up
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The secret sauce to the economy’s success and a sea change in foreign policy during the Trump administration was becoming an energy-independent nation. President Trump said during the campaign that Joe Biden’s Green New Deal policies would reduce domestic energy production and raise prices. Early indications are that he was correct.

“Looks like Pork is back on the menu, boys!”


Senate Narrowly Passes $1.9 Trillion COVID Stimulus Bill

The Senate voted 50-49 to pass Democrats’ $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package on Saturday, after a marathon session of voting on various amendments.

The bill was passed via budget reconciliation rules, which allow a simple majority to approve legislation in place of a filibuster-proof 60-vote threshold. The Biden administration had been pushing to pass the legislation before the week of March 14, when pandemic-related federal unemployment assistance is scheduled to expire.

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75% of All Jobs Added in February Were Waiters and Bartenders

Call it payback for the December restaurant shutdowns.

It took a few minutes after the BLS reported the impressive February jobs report, which showed a whopping 379K total jobs added in February (and 465K private payrolls, or more than double the 195K expected), for traders to read between the lines and realize that there was much less than meets the eye in the latest jobs report.

To wit: of the 379K jobs, a whopping 355K, or 93%, were in leisure and hospitality, and within this category the one and only sector that truly boomed the most under the Obama admin was on top: employees food service and drinking places, i.e. waiter and bartenders, accounted for a massive 286K jobs, or 75% of the total job gains in February. Call it payback for the December collapse in restaurant workers when nearly 400K jobs were lost amid the latest round of restaurant shutdowns.

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The Federal Reserve Is Taking Us into Uncharted and Deadly Waters

At the Federal Reserve semi-annual testimony before Congress this week, Chair Jerome Powell should have been asked whether the Fed has become the national Reddit.

The Reddit stock frenzy created a pool of motivated buyers, irrespective of the value of the underlying company.

For more complicated reasons, the federal government is the biggest Redditer of all, Reddit on crack cocaine.  Instead of billions, the government plays in the trillions. Instead of a handful of small cap stocks, it has hijacked the entire stock market.  But the mechanism is the same.  Flood the market with funds, and for good measure force interest rates to zero, eliminating alternative investments.  The recent congressional Reddit hearings are parody in comparison to the government’s role in driving market prices, in particular the Fed.

Let’s make it specific.  When Joe Biden promises to spend $1.9 trillion, where exactly does that money come from?  Beyond that, even excluding the $1.9 trillion, how does the government finance four years of deficits, which the Congressional Budget Office recently estimated at $5.9 trillion?  That’s an expected one-term cumulative deficit of $7.8 trillion.  Where indeed does this money come from?

The wrong answer is tax receipts.  In FY2020, federal budget revenues — i.e., tax receipts — totaled $3.4 trillion — $1.6 trillion from income taxes; $1.3 trillion from payroll taxes; $0.2 trillion from corporate taxes; and the balance of $0.3 trillion from excise, custom duties, estate taxes, and miscellaneous.  Spending, on the other hand, totaled $6.6 trillion, versus the pre-COVID budget of $4.8 trillion.  The result is a record $3.1-trillion deficit.

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It’s an interesting idea. One problem is that the Gresham’s law principle  that “bad money drives out good” means people who even would accept specie, would very likely simply keep it and spend out paper, as long as federal paper money – short of Weimar/Zimbabwe levels of hyper inflation –  remained in circulation and still had to be accepted as legal tender.
Also, there’s not as much gold and silver bullion floating around as one might think. Their scarcity is why they’re called ‘precious metals’.


Kansas Bill Would Make Gold And Silver Legal Tender In The State

A bill introduced in the Kansas House would recognize gold and silver specie as legal tender and repeal all taxes levied on it. The legislation would pave the way for Kansans to use gold and silver in everyday transactions, a foundational step for the people to undermine the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money.

The Federal Reserve is the engine that drives the most powerful government in the history of the world. Ron Paul popularized the slogan “End the Fed,” but Congress is nowhere near abolishing the central bank.  It can’t even come up with the will to audit the Fed.

Even though state action can’t end the Fed, there are steps states can take that will undermine the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money. By passing laws that encourage and incentivize the use of gold and silver in daily transactions by the general public, policy changes at the state level such as the Kansas Legal Tender Act has the potential to create a wide-reaching impact and set the foundation to nullify the Fed’s monopoly power over the monetary system.

A coalition of four Republicans introduced House Bill 2123 (HB2123) on Jan. 25. The legislation would make gold and silver legal tender in the state, recognizing it as a medium of exchange for the payment of debts and taxes. In effect, gold and silver specie would be treated as money, putting it on par with Federal Reserve notes in Kansas.

Under the proposed law, “Legal tender” means a recognized medium of exchange for the payment of debts and taxes. Specie legal tender would be defined as:

(a) Specie coin issued by the United States government at any time; or
(b) any other specie that a court of competent jurisdiction, by final and unappealable order, rules to be within state authority to make or designate as legal tender

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Biden and Yellen brush aside inflation warnings in pursuing $1.9 trillion plan for full employment.

The Biden administration is fighting hard for a historically ambitious fiscal package in the name of lowering unemployment, disregarding warnings from Democratic-aligned economists that their plans would risk runaway inflation.

President Biden is seeking a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package to add to the $900 billion measure enacted in December.

If Biden’s full proposal were passed, the aid would double the shortfall in economic output due to the pandemic, as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office, for the next three years.

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