Category: Military

Apropos of nothing and no one whatsoever

The Delta Force Explains Why Ukraine’s Special Forces Are So Good

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has seen an abundance of special operations. Both countries, after all, possess competent — for the most part — special operations forces. The Russian military has the famed Spetsnaz, while the Ukrainian special operations forces have been trained and equipped by the U.S. and the West.

However, despite the pre-war expectation of daring raids behind enemy lines, there have been few accounts of special operations in the war. Both sides have managed to keep any under wraps. But there seems to be one notable exception. In early March, Ukrainian special operations forces allegedly rescued the mayor of Melitopol from Russian captivity.

The operation

In early March, Ukrainian special operations forces rescued the mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov from Russian captivity, according to the Ukrainian government. Melitopol is located in southeastern Ukraine and has been in Russian hands since early March.

In the first days of the invasion, the Russian troops were very careful not to alienate the Ukrainian population, even allowing protests in occupied towns and in some cases, famously, allowing civilians to stop or turn Russian tanks back. But after more than a month of fighting, the masks have fallen, and the Russian military has shown the world its true colors by committing war crimes and other atrocities throughout occupied Ukraine.

After the Russian military captured the town, the Russian security services started a campaign of repression, arresting Ukrainian officials and other persons of interest who could prove a nuisance. Fedorov was one such person, and CCTV footage showed Russian troops marching him away.

Before the invasion, Western intelligence services had warned Ukraine and the world of the Kremlin’s plans to abduct Ukrainian politicians, academics, administrators, and other officials that might pose a threat to their plans. Ukrainian officials are claiming that the Russian security services have abducted at least three Ukrainian mayors.

Kirilo Timoshenko, an adviser to Zelensky and the deputy of the Ukrainian presidential office, said that the mayor of Melitopol was freed following a “special operation,” but he didn’t provide any additional details about the operation or what Ukrainian units were involved.

Following the operation, Fedorov spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the video of the correspondence a proof of the successful mission. After the initial pleasantries, the Melitopol mayor thanked the Ukrainian president for not forgetting him, with Zelensky simply saying that Ukraine doesn’t leave its own behind.

“We have finally managed to release the mayor of Melitopol from captivity,” Zelensky said during a national address. “Ivan Fedorov is free. I talked to him today. The Russian military abducted him on March 11, trying to persuade him to collaborate. But our man withstood. He did not give up. Just as we all endure.”

How special operations prisoner rescues work

Prisoner or hostage rescues are one of the toughest special operations mission sets. Surprise, speed, and violence of action are key in rescuing the objective before the enemy moves or kills it.

“A hostage rescue and a kidnapping (snatch operation) are fundamentally the same operation; that is, the principles of action are the same though some smaller details may be different. I have been on more snatches than hostage rescue [operations],” retired Master Sergeant George Hand IV told Sandboxx News.

Hand spent a decade in the elite Delta Force. As the Army’s tier 1 special missions unit, Delta Force specializes in hostage rescue, counterterrorism, and direct action operations, among other mission sets.

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Russian explosions point to Ukraine’s embrace of the British special forces model.

Storage tanks at a major oil depot in the Russian city of Bryansk exploded early on Monday. Was Ukraine responsible?

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Well, after sinking their Black Sea Fleet Flagship, I’d think talks would collapse too.

UKRAINE INVASION UPDATE 23

April 15

“Negotiations: Ceasefire negotiations have effectively collapsed.”

The Ukraine Invasion Update is a weekly synthetic product covering key political and rhetorical events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine. This update covers events from April 8-14. All of the ISW Russia’s team’s coverage of the war in Ukraine—including daily military assessments and maps, past Conflict Updates, and several supplemental assessments—are available on our Ukraine Crisis Coverage landing page.

Key Takeaways April 8-14

• Ukraine and Russia are both unlikely to advance ceasefire negotiations until the ongoing Russian campaign in eastern Ukraine develops further. The Kremlin likely seeks to capture at minimum the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, while Kyiv seeks to further degrade the Russian military and potentially conduct major counteroffensives.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin may be purging elements of his intelligence service and blaming close allies for Russian intelligence and planning failures in the lead-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is likely falsely blaming Ukrainian forces for planning or conducting provocations in areas where Russian forces intend to commit or have already committed atrocities.
• Independent actors are unlikely to be able to verify Ukraine’s April 11 claim that Russian forces used chemical weapons in Mariupol, but Russian forces retain the capability to use chemical weapons beyond this specific instance.
• The Kremlin is reframing the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a Western war against Russia in a likely effort to maintain Russian domestic acceptance of the war.
• Belarus and Russia are increasing economic ties—and likely Kremlin influence over Belarus—as sanctions cut off both states from international markets.
• Finland and Sweden are increasingly reconsidering their non-aligned status and may move to join NATO in the coming months.
• Western countries continued to search for alternatives to Russian energy while the Kremlin tried to downplay the effects of Western sanctions on its economy and energy sector.
• NATO countries continue to secure their eastern borders and provide military assistance (including several high-end capabilities) to Ukraine to counter Russian aggression.

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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 8

Immediate items to watch

• Russian forces will continue reinforcing the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and attempting to advance to and through Slovyansk to encircle Ukrainian forces.
• Russia is likely cohering forces in Donbas to attempt a major offensive in the coming days or weeks.
• The Battle of Mariupol continues, and it is unclear how much longer the Ukrainian defenders can hold out.
• Russian forces have fully vacated the Sumy axis and are regrouping in Belgorod for likely deployment to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis.
• Some Russian forces are likely to return to home stations in Russia while others will re-enter the fighting in the east.

Ukrainian forces retain control of defensive positions in eastern and southwestern Mariupol, despite Russian claims to have captured most of the city. ISW was able to confirm the specific locations of ongoing Russian assaults on April 8 for the first time in several days. Russian forces continue to attempt to regroup and redeploy units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine to support an offensive in eastern Ukraine, but these units are unlikely to enable a Russian breakthrough and face poor morale. Russian forces along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis did not make any territorial gains in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian counterattacks toward Kherson continue to threaten Russian positions around the city.

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continued to hold out against Russian assaults in areas of southwestern and eastern Mariupol, notably in the port and the Azovstal Metallurgy plant, respectively.
• Ukrainian forces continued to repel daily Russian assaults in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
• A Russian Tochka-U missile struck a civilian evacuation point at the Kramatorsk rail station in eastern Ukraine, killing at least 50 and wounding around a hundred evacuees.
• Russian forces continued attacks south of Izyum toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove but did not take any new territory.
• Ukrainian counterattacks have likely taken further territory west of Kherson, threatening Russian control of the city.

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3.

Immediate items to watch

• Russian forces will likely complete their withdrawal from Kyiv along the Sumy axis in the coming days and will probably abandon their remaining positions around Konotop and Sumy thereafter.
• Russian troops around Kharkiv will likely continue to focus on supporting the shift of the main effort via Izyum toward the southeast and may pull back from the immediate environs of the city.
• Russian and proxy forces will attempt to increase the scope and scale of offensive operations to complete the linkup between the Kharkiv-Izyum axis and occupied Luhansk.
• Russian forces will likely secure Mariupol in coming days, and may attempt to launch renewed offensive operations northwest from the city in an effort to seize Donetsk Oblast.

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv. Russian forces are completing their withdrawal, but not in good order. Ukrainian forces are continuing to clear Kyiv Oblast of isolated Russian troops left behind in the retreat, which some Ukrainian officials describe as “lost orcs.” Russian forces had attempted to conduct an orderly retreat from their positions around Kyiv with designated covering forces supported by artillery and mines to allow the main body to withdraw. The main body of Russian troops has withdrawn from the west bank of the Dnipro and is completing its withdrawal from the east bank, but the retrograde has been sufficiently disorderly that some Russian troops were left behind.

The war is far from over and could still turn Russia’s way if the Russian military can launch a successful operation in eastern Ukraine. The current line of Russian occupation in southern and eastern Ukraine is still a significant gain in Russian-controlled territory since the start of the war. If a ceasefire or peace agreement freezes a line like the current front-line trace, Russia will be able to exert much greater pressure on Ukraine than it did before the invasion and may over time reassemble a more effective invasion force. Ukraine’s victory in the Battle of Kyiv is thus significant but not decisive.

The disorder of the Russian withdrawal suggests that at least some of the units now reconcentrating in Belarus and western Russia will remain combat ineffective for a protracted period. Russian troops attempting to refit after pulling back from around Kyiv will likely have to reconsolidate into their units, identify which soldiers are still present, sort out their equipment and assess its combat readiness, and generally reconstitute before they can even begin to receive replacements and new equipment and prepare for further combat operations.

Russian forces are likely abandoning the east bank of the Dnipro fully as well, withdrawing from around Chernihiv to the north and from Brovary to the east. Russian troops will likely seek to hold a salient around Konotop and Sumy long enough to allow their forces to complete their retrograde from near Kyiv but will then likely withdraw back to Russia from almost all their positions west of Kharkiv.

Moscow is attempting to concentrate reserves and some units pulled from the fight around Sumy to reinforce its offensive operations in the east but is encountering serious challenges in that effort. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 3 that Russian soldiers are resisting and in some cases refusing orders to enter or re-enter the war effort. The General Staff asserted that the two battalion tactical groups (BTGs) that moved from South Ossetia toward Donbas less than a week ago refused to fight and that plans to move them back to South Ossetia are in train.[1] The General Staff claimed that about 25 soldiers of the Russian 31st Separate Airborne Brigade refused orders to re-enter combat citing excessive losses.[2] The General Staff also asserted that commanders at various echelons in the Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Division have refused to participate in combat operations.[3] We have no independent verification of these reports, but they are credible in light of the losses Russian forces have suffered and of independent reports of Russian soldiers killing commanders and commanders committing suicide from earlier in the conflict.

Russian efforts to advance its offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made limited progress in the past 24 hours. Fighting continues in Mariupol and on the Izyum-Severodonetsk axis.

Key Takeaways

• Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv, and Russian forces are completing their withdrawals from both the east and the west banks of the Dnipro in disorder.
• Russian forces retreating from around Kyiv will likely need considerable time before they can return to combat.
• Incidents of refusals of orders to engage in combat operations among Russian units continue and may lead to the redeployment of two BTGs that had arrived near Donbas within the last few days to their home stations in South Ossetia.
• The continued existence of an independent Ukrainian state with its capital in Kyiv is no longer in question at this time, although much fighting remains and the war could still turn Russia’s way.

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1 dead, 2 rescued after Navy plane crashes in water in Accomack County

ACCOMACK COUNTY, Va. (WAVY) — One person is dead and two others were rescued after a U.S. Navy E2-D crashed near Chincoteague in Accomack County Wednesday night, according to military officials.

Lt. Cmdr. Rob Myers, a public affairs officer with Naval Air Force Atlantic, said the plane was doing a routine exercise when it went down around 7:30 p.m.

Three people were on board in total. Two injured people were rescued by the U.S. Coast Guard and one was found dead in the aircraft, Myers said.

The plane is based out of Naval Station Norfolk and assigned to an East Coast Airborne Command and Control Squadron.

Naval Air Force Atlantic Public Affairs said the two crewmembers have injuries that aren’t considered life-threatening.

The name of the deceased crew member will be released once next of kin is notified.

The Navy said the incident is under investigation.

Well, until the next one. Because if there’s one thing learned, it’s that the next war will be different than can be imagined, or ‘properly’ prepared for. That’s why you always hear ‘they trained to fight the last war’

Ukraine Changes the Face of War Forever

There’s a powerful David vs. Goliath lesson emerging from Russia’s brazen, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine that should give deep pause to global superpowers who still think they can simply muscle the world into any shape they want.

Every Russian tank that gets fried in Ukraine is sending the message that traditional armies can no longer expect to dominate simply because they have more troops, weapons, and money. Russian armored vehicles are falling victim to Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapons (NLAWs), which can be carried by individual soldiers, unslung in seconds, and deployed with little training and fatal accuracy. There are credible reports that Russia has already lost $5 billion worth of military equipment in a month of fighting in Ukraine. The human cost for Russia is even more staggering: Nearly 10,000 soldiers have been killed in action, including at least five generals.

That’s the reality of contemporary warfare: Smaller, nimbler groups fighting back effectively against lumbering, dumb relics of the past. Despite being the fifth largest fighting force on the planet and starting the war with five times the number of active military as Ukraine, Russia has been stymied in what virtually all observers expected to be a cakewalk.

This isn’t to say that Russia isn’t also inflicting massive, horrific violence against Ukraine—or that it won’t prevail in this conflict, especially the longer things drag on. But this war underscores what James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg called the changing “logic of violence” and “the diminishing returns to violence” in their prophetic 1997 book The Sovereign Individual.

As weapons have become smaller, cheaper, more effective, and more widely dispersed, it’s harder and harder for old-style militaries and countries to quickly and effectively achieve their objectives through brute force as they meet resistance at every turn. That resistance includes “information warfare”—which includes hacking and cyber attacks—but also the use of social media, which Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has excelled at to project an aura of invincibility and to cast the conflict in stark terms of good vs. evil.

This lesson shouldn’t be new to Americans, as our failures over the past two decades in Afghanistan and Iraq underscored the new reality that old-school invasion and occupation is more expensive and temporary than it is quick and effective. But Russia’s incompetence drives home in graphic detail to us—and, one hopes, to the Chinese officials supposedly eyeing an invasion of Taiwan—that even if Goliath does take out David, the price is too high and the victory too transient to bother undertaking.

If the collapse of the Soviet Union—that gargoyle incarnation of belief in top-down authority, power, and decision-making—was the beginning of the end of the 20th century’s romance with the nation-state, then Russia’s blundering in Ukraine and the United States’ disasters in central Asia and the Middle East may be its epitaph.

The future belongs not to the ignorant armies of the night who seek to command and control but to those who embrace and empower the decentralization of weapons, technology, information, currency, and individual ingenuity and courage.

BLUF:
Immediate items to watch

• Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol or force the city to capitulate within the coming weeks.
• Russia will expand its air, missile, and artillery bombardments of Ukrainian cities.
• Ukrainian officials suggest that Ukrainian forces may launch a larger counterattack in western Kyiv Oblast in the coming days.
• The continued involvement of the Black Sea Fleet in the Battle of Mariupol reduces the likelihood of an amphibious landing near Odesa, Russian naval shelling of Odesa in recent days notwithstanding.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian forces continued to settle in for a protracted and stalemated conflict over the last 24 hours, with more reports emerging of Russian troops digging in and laying mines—indications that they have gone over to the defensive. Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited and effective counterattacks to relieve pressure on Kyiv, although the extent of those counterattacks is likely less than what some Ukrainian officials are claiming. Russian efforts to mobilize additional forces to keep their offensive moving continue to be halting and limited. Russian progress in taking Mariupol city remains slow and grinding. Increasing Russian emphasis on using air, artillery, and rocket/missile bombardments of Ukrainian cities to offset forward offensive momentum raises the urgency of providing Ukraine with systems to defend against these attacks.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces continue to go over to the defensive, conducting restricted and localized ground attacks that make little progress.
• Ukrainian forces are conducting limited and successful counterattacks around Kyiv to disrupt Russian operations to encircle the city (which has now become extremely unlikely) and relieve the pressure on the capital.
• The Battle of Mariupol continues as a block-by-block struggle with fierce Ukrainian resistance and limited Russian gains.
• Russia is likely struggling to obtain fresh combat power from Syria and elsewhere rapidly.

Click here to expand the map below.

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