Category: RKBA

Prospects for Constitutional Carry in 2022

At the start of 2021 there were 16 members of the Constitutional Carry club in the United States of America. They were:

  • Alaska
  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • Idaho
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Maine
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • New Hampshire
  • North Dakota
  • Oklahoma
  • South Dakota
  • Vermont
  • West Virginia
  • Wyoming

2021 was a record year for Constitutional Carry. In 2021, five states joined the Constitutional Carry club, increasing membership from 16 to 21. The last and largest state to join the club was Texas. The four other states to join the club in 2021 were Tennessee, Iowa, Montana, and Utah.

Several other states are working to pass Constitutional Carry bills. Here are states and possibilities for Constitutional Carry in 2022.

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Biden’s voodoo crime control: Americans have more reason to own a gun than ever before

President Biden has returned to an old standby for liberal crime fighters — more gun control.

This month, the president used the anniversary of the Sandy Hook shootings to push gun-control legislation that included expanded background checks and $5 billion for community “anti-violence programs.” He assured us that all were “commonsense” measures.

Funny how new gun control proposals are always commonsensical. Whatever background checks we have, they always need to be expanded. Giving money to community programs (read: social spending) is one of the left’s favorite anti-crime measures.

Crime has reached epidemic proportions, and not just crimes committed with guns. Property theft is up. (A new expression has been added to the vocabulary — “snatch and grab.”) The elderly are assaulted on city streets. Women are raped on train cars. The murder of police officers has become routine.

In 2021, 12 major cities, all with Democratic mayors, had record-breaking homicides.

As of Dec. 17, there were 535 murders in Philadelphia, exceeding the previous record of 500 in 1990. Portland, St. Paul and Chicago were among the other winners of the homicide sweepstakes.

To all of this, the Democrats have a set of standard responses — deny, deflect and play dumb.

Earlier this month, Larry Krasner (“Let ‘em Loose Larry”), Philly’s radical district attorney, said there wasn’t an overall crisis of crime in the City of Brotherly Love. (“Basically, we don’t have a crisis of lawlessness. We don’t have a crisis of crime. We don’t have a crisis of violence.”) Mr. Krasner later tried to walk it back, to still the uproarious laughter.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi confessed, “The fact is there is an attitude of lawlessness in our country that springs from I don’t know where.”

Her feigned ignorance is understandable.

The crime wave washing over our cities is due to policies and causes championed by her party and her “just perfect” president — including defunding and demonizing the police, ending cash bail, reducing felonies to misdemeanors, loosening borders and allowing the mob free-rein during last year’s riots.

As business districts went up in flames, police were attacked and stores were looted, Democratic officeholders either ignored the mob or cheered it on. Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey helpfully observed: “Yes, America is burning, but that’s how forests grow.” Chaos in the streets is also how totalitarian movements grow, like the Bolsheviks in 1917 and the Nazis in 1933.

As a candidate, Mr. Biden avoided commenting on the orgy of violence until polls showed him losing on the issue. Even then, he repudiated it only in the most general terms, never mentioning BLM or antifa.

The president’s open-borders debacle — stopping construction of the wall, ending remain-in-Mexico (recently reinstated by the courts), and bringing back catch and release — also contributed to the crime wave.

In the past fiscal year, the number of border encounters quadrupled over 2020. We’re not just importing poverty and disease, but gang members, drugs and human trafficking.

But the president says we can end the crime explosion with expanded background checks and midnight basketball.

Background checks are useless. The Sandy Hook shooter used his mother’s legally registered gun. The San Bernardino terrorists used a straw-man purchase to get their weapons. The 15-year-old arrested for the school shooting in Oxford, Michigan, used his parents’ legal handgun. According to the Department of Justice, 1.4 million guns are stolen in this country each year. Perhaps we could do background checks on the thieves.

Gun control is voodoo crime control. It won’t keep guns out of the hands of determined criminals or psychopaths.

We are a nation of gun owners and have been from the beginning. The American Revolution started when the British tried to impose commonsense gun control at Lexington and Concord.

In a September Pew Research Poll, 4 in 10 Americans said they live in a household with a gun, including 30% who said they personally own one. The percentage used in a crime each year is infinitesimal (.004%).

Thank God for guns. Widespread gun ownership is one reason we’ve never had a Stalin, a Hitler or a Castro.

Ironically, Mr. Biden seeks to impose more gun control at a time when his policies give Americans more of a reason to own guns than ever before.

CCRKBA: BIDEN’S YEAR-END POLL NUMBERS EXPLAIN STRONG GUN SALES IN 2021

BELLEVUE, WA – A new Rasmussen poll showing Joe Biden has lost ground among likely U.S. voters for his handling of crime and law enforcement issues helps explain the continued interest in private gun ownership, the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms said today.

According to Rasmussen’s survey, 51 percent of likely voters give Biden a poor rating for his ability to handle rising crime. Back in July, 48 percent of poll respondents gave the president bad marks on this subject. Rasmussen revealed 77 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of Independents rate the president’s handling of crime and law enforcement issues to be poor.

According to the FBI National Instant Check System (NICS), more than 35.7 million background checks have been initiated so far this year, and while that number does not reflect actual gun sales, it does indicate a strong continuing interest in gun ownership.

“Since Joe Biden took office,” said CCRKBA Chairman Alan Gottlieb, “millions of Americans who had never before owned a firearm bought one. During the week leading up to ‘Black Friday’ in November, there were more than 687,000 NICS checks initiated, and we anticipate strong numbers for December when the final tally is available.

“Since Biden took office,” he continued, “police agencies have continued to lose personnel, crime has spiked upward and increasing numbers of Americans have taken more responsibility for their personal safety and that of their families. For a guy who came into office promising more restrictions on legal firearms ownership, Joe Biden has only stoked gun sales because his policies are making Americans feel less safe, because, in fact, they are .

“Joe Biden and his handlers need to face reality,” Gottlieb observed. “Their policies and performance do not resonate with the majority of citizens. When you throw in Rasmussen’s revelation that 67 percent of likely voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction, you have a disaster on your hands, people have lost faith in their ability to lead, and they are preparing for the worst. It’s a signal that Biden should leave gun rights alone for the remainder of his time in office.”

Polls Show More Hispanics Turning Their Backs on Gun Control, Civilian Disarmament Advocates

An Axios/Ipsos poll showed Hispanic swing voters are concerned about crime, criminal violence and personal safety. That finding wasn’t a surprise to NSSF. Hispanic-Americans, along with nearly every other demographic group, are embracing their right to lawfully purchase and own a firearm. Firearm industry retail survey data revealed this growing trend a year ago. That’s when law-abiding Latinos purchased firearms in big numbers and the demographics of America’s gun owners continued to show growth.

Hispanic-Americans aren’t an outlier community and examples are plenty. Suburban swing voters and other minority groups demonstrated similar patterns as they saw policy failures affecting their safety, fully embraced lawful gun ownership and exercised their Second Amendment right.

The Axios/Ipsos poll asked Hispanic-Americans about their top concerns and crime and violence came in at the number two spot at 30 percent – behind only COVID worries at 37 percent. Per Axios, “The finding is a warning for President Biden ahead of next year’s midterms.” A similar Wall Street Journal poll from a week earlier showed Hispanic voters are turning away from Democrats, typically supportive of more gun control, and are now nearly evenly split between their party preference.

The 2022 elections mark the first regular national Election Day since the 2020 election over which time Americans have seen rampant violent crime in cities across the country, calls to defund the police and for prosecutors to go easy on convicted criminals. It also witnessed historic firearm sales.

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Nebraska state senator to try again to allow ‘constitutional carry’ of handguns

Sen. Tom Brewer, a decorated veteran who knows something about overcoming adversity, is loading up another effort to obtain a victory that has eluded gun-rights advocates in Nebraska.

Brewer said he will introduce a proposal during the upcoming legislative session to allow Nebraskans to carry a concealed handgun without meeting the current requirements of a criminal background check, a $100 fee and an eight- to 16-hour class on safe gun handling.

Constitutional carry — which refers to the belief that the U.S. Constitution already gives people the right to carry concealed guns — is a hot-button issue that has previously failed in the Nebraska Legislature. But it’s the law in 21 states, including every state surrounding Nebraska except Colorado.

As of Nov. 1, there were more than 85,671 Nebraskans licensed to carry concealed weapons.

Earlier this year, Brewer abandoned a proposal that would have allowed Nebraska counties, with the exception of the three largest — Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy — to decide whether to allow permit-less carry of concealed handguns. Brewer’s decision came after a Nebraska attorney general’s opinion raised serious constitutional concerns about delegating a state matter to county boards.

But Brewer, who represents Nebraska’s traditionally conservative Sandhills, got a boost recently from Gov. Pete Ricketts.

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Nation of Cowards is now back in print

Nation of Cowards is a collection of amazingly well thought out essays. Jeff Snyder is clearly among the most knowledgeable, well-read scholars writing about guns today. He clearly shows gun control advocates for what they really are. Most importantly, he makes a passionate, intellectual argument on the ethical aspects of gun ownership. He argues convincingly that aside from being unconstitutional and elitist, gun control is also deeply unethical. This book belongs in the library of anyone who believes that people have a right to defend themselves.

A must read for those with an interest in not only the 2nd Amendment, but all of the rights we are possess. The author effectively opens your mind to strong thinking about the ideas associated with gun control.

Boo Hoo – Boo Hoo

Gun control advocates express disappointment with Biden

Gun violence prevention advocates were hopeful a year ago that the Biden presidency would make progress on gun control. Instead, as his first year in office draws to an end, they are feeling disappointed.

Advocates say Biden’s response to the recent school shooting in Michigan, when a sophomore opened fire at school and killed four students, fell short, and they are disheartened that the administration’s nominee to lead the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) withdrew.

Like his predecessors, Biden has issued executive orders on gun violence prevention while legislation to expand background checks has failed in the Senate.

“I think the biggest thing to highlight here is that the president has been a friend to the gun violence prevention (GVP) movement this year and we’re thankful, but frankly, he hasn’t really been a leader,” said Zeenat Yahya, deputy policy director at March for Our Lives.

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I hope the ‘a liberal is merely a conservative who hasn’t been mugged carjacked yet’ meme holds true for this one.

Carjacked congresswoman has a long history of embracing gun control

Last Wednesday, Democratic Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon had her luxury SUV stolen at gunpoint by a couple of armed men in Philadelphia. As Cam noted, five people are facing charges after this brazen carjacking that happened in broad daylight at FDR park.

Crime that happens in a dark alley at night is one thing, but this sort of daytime crime becomes common when the State abdicates its basic function in maintaining the rule of law. Philadelphia has done just that, extending its Brotherly Love to violent criminals thanks to far-Left Democrat D.A. Larry Krasner.

Those of us in the Second Amendment community know all too well how criminal-coddling policies that lead to crime spikes are used as a pretext to pass more gun control laws, which turn us – the law-abiding, tax-paying citizens who want to mind our own business – into criminals. That’s a feature, not a bug, of the gun control movement, and that’s what Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon’s campaign website showcases. Here are members of the Gun Grab Lobby who endorsed Scanlon’s congressional bid:

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Researchers believe more research needs to be done (typical researcher BS)
I’ve done research too and have an actual answer for  ‘gun policy’ that needs no further research.
“A well regulated Militia being necessary for the security of a Free State, the Right of The People to Keep and Bear Arms SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED”

Which is so simple, only an intellectual can’t understand it.

Now, when these ‘researchers’ say we’re “playing fast and loose with the second amendment” by reading it the way it was written, I’ll tell them, Yes, the Bill of Rights is a “fast and loose” concept, if one chooses to see it that way.
The proper answer is; You don’t like it? Tough. That’s exactly why it exists, so people who hate it can’t do anything about it. That’s the whole point about rights, especially the ones the founders felt were so important they need to be specifically enumerated from government restriction.

 

New RAND Report on Gun Policy Disagreement

The RAND Corporation just released a new report, The Magnitude and Sources of Disagreement Among Gun Policy Experts. Both Center faculty co-directors, Joseph Blocher and Darrell Miller, participated as experts.
The Report’s key findings include:
(1)experts were divided on whether they favored more permissive or less permissive policies, with sharp differences on select laws like assault weapon bans, gun licensing, and registration,

(2) not all policies generated such diametrically opposed views; many experts agreed on largely law enforcement solutions like various prohibitor possessor laws and also child access prevention laws, and

(3) experts prioritized laws that would reduce firearm homicides and suicides, suggesting that more evidence on different proposals’ effectiveness could generate more agreement.

Here’s the overview of the Report:

The effects of firearm policies, though frequently debated, have historically received less-rigorous scientific evaluation than have the effects of other policies affecting public safety, health, and recreation. Despite improvements in recent years, there is still limited evidence of how some gun policies that are frequently proposed or enacted in the United States are likely to affect important outcomes (such as firearm homicides, property crime, and the right to bear arms). In areas without strong scientific evidence, policymakers and the public rely heavily on what policy advocates or social scientists believe the effects are most likely to be.

In this report, part of the RAND Gun Policy in America initiative, RAND researchers describe the combined results from two fieldings (2016 and 2020) of a survey of gun policy experts. Respondents were asked to estimate the likely effects of 19 gun policies on ten outcomes. The researchers use these and other responses to establish the diversity of beliefs among gun policy experts, assess where experts are in more or less agreement on the effects of gun laws, and evaluate whether differences in the policies favored by experts result from differences in experts’ assumptions about the policies’ effects or differences in experts’ policy objectives.

The analysis suggests that experts on different sides of the gun policy debate share some objectives but disagree on which policies will achieve those objectives. Therefore, collecting stronger evidence about the true effects of policies is, the researchers believe, a necessary step toward building greater consensus on which policies to pursue.

Is Mandatory Firearms Liability Insurance a Liability or an Asset?

Anti-gun politicians in New York are proposing mandatory liability insurance for some firearms owners. Let me give you the pitch and let’s see how you react. Yes, this is a test of sorts, so you might want to have some coffee before you dive in.

The theory is that honest gun owners cause crime. The law holds gun owners liable for everything that happens. Gun stores and gun manufacturers are held liable too. They are even liable for the actions of criminals who steel guns until the guns are reported stolen. I didn’t see any first party indemnification, so if you try and stop a robber who is stealing your guns and he shoots you with one of your own guns then you might be held liable. To sum up the theory, society would be safer because criminals will be disarmed after honest gun owners lock up their guns. The politicians say we would finally have peace on our streets, and who could object to that.

Now let’s look at the other side of the argument. Honest gun owners do a phenomenal job of keeping their guns away from children. Accidental deaths with a firearm are rare with only one out of 350 accidental deaths being from a firearm. So we have some perspective on the problem, let me add that an accidental death with a firearm happens a little more than once a day. Now consider that armed defense is frequent rather than rare. Honest citizens use a gun for armed defense a little over 4500 times a day. If we make guns less accessible will that save lives or cost lives? The answer isn’t clear, but armed defense is about 3500 times more common than a lethal firearms accident.

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DEMAND CREDIBLE ANSWERS
MAKE THE POLITICIANS JUSTIFY GUN CONTROL

How many times have you heard or read this: “If people shouldn’t need photo ID to vote, why should it be required to buy a gun?”

Too many left-tilting reporters and politicians quickly dismiss this question as redneck rhetoric, but don’t let them get away with such dismissive condescension. It is a legitimate question because we’re not talking about guns, we’re talking about rights and all constitutionally protected rights are equal, especially the ones enumerated in the federal and state constitutions.

All Are Equal

The right to keep and bear arms may be treated like the ugly second-cousin at a family picnic but it is just as important and deserving of respect as the rights of free speech, the press, religion, the presence of legal counsel during police interrogation and the right to an attorney when prosecuted in a court of law.

So, you bet this is a question politicians should answer and not with some song-and-dance response that doesn’t really answer your inquiry. Don’t let them get away with it.

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TIL (Today I Learned)

1421-2021 – 600th anniversary of civilian firearms possession

In late night between 21 and 22 December 1421, reformed Czech militia conducted a breakthrough attack against German Catholic crusader encirclement near the town of Kutná Hora.

Czech militia had been using firearms on the battlefield for two years by then, but only in auxiliary role. On 21 December 1421, firearms first served as primary offensive weapon, on top of and in between of moving war wagons.

At Kutná Hora, it was tactical necessity due to inability of conducting standard cold-weapon based battle during nighttime, moreover while on move. It then became cornerstone of Czech militia’s tactic.

This anniversary belongs to gun owners everywhere, not only in the Czech Republic.

Indiana Republicans reintroducing legislation to end requirement for handgun carry permits

INDIANAPOLIS – Indiana Republican lawmakers are working to reintroduce legislation that would allow many Hoosiers to carry handguns without a permit.

Several lawmakers in both the Indiana House and Senate are writing bills.

Known as “constitutional carry” or “permitless carry,” it’s a change to Indiana law some Republican legislators have been working on for years.

“It’s still to me, it’s an infringement of our constitutional rights to mandate, require somebody to jump through hoops, go get fingerprinted, pay a fee – you still have to pay to get your fingerprints done – wait God only knows how long,” said State Rep. Jim Lucas (R-Seymour), one of the lawmakers planning to introduce this type of bill.

It would still prevent anyone not allowed to carry a gun now from doing so, Lucas said.

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A Girl and a Gun club empowers female gun owners

Born and raised in Wyoming, Kathleen Wilkinson, 67, was familiar with weapons but had never done any shooting. That all changed when her husband, a Top Gun pilot, passed away in 2020.

Having moved to Grand Junction in 1978, the newly-widowed Wilkinson decided to visit her sister in Oklahoma at a ranch she managed. While there, Wilkinson decided to try shooting for the first time at the ranch’s shooting range. She was able to borrow a rifle, a 9mm semi-automatic pistol, and a .22-caliber revolver. Like a Rambo Goldilocks, the rifle kicked too hard, the 9mm was hard to manage and very loud, but the .22 was just right. With it, she hit the target nearly every time, and that got her hooked.

As soon as she returned home, Wilkinson purchased a .22 revolver. While waiting for the background check, she followed the store employee’s suggestion to visit the Rocky Mountain Gun Club (RMGC). Wilkinson discovered the club rented guns and had a Ladies Day open to nonmembers, and immediately made plans to attend.

On her way out, she saw a flyer for A Girl and A Gun Shooting League’s local chapter. It only took Wilkinson one day to decide she wanted to join.

Gun classes

A Girl and A Gun’s (AG/AG) mission is to encourage women of all demographics to be educated about firearm usage and safety and to promote shooting and competitive shooting sports. Events are designed for all levels of experience, from novice to recreational to competitive.

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These 12 Incidents of Defensive Gun Use Prove Armed Civilians Make Situations Safer

I testified earlier this month at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing in Chicago on underlying causes of the spikes in gun violence in that city and around the country.

Although Sen. Dick Durbin’s interruptions of my opening statement stole the show in many respects, it shouldn’t be overlooked that the Illinois Democrat also solicited disparaging remarks on the right to keep and bear arms from another witness—Chicago Police Superintendent David Brown.

In direct response to one of Durbin’s questions, Brown remarked that armed civilians make police officers’ jobs more difficult, and that he never has seen a lawfully armed civilian make a situation safer.

This was certainly disappointing and should not take away from Brown’s important points with respect to underlying problems  of prosecutorial leniency and anti-police sentiment that devastates police morale.

But Brown also is quite mistaken about the reality of defensive uses of firearms. Americans—including those residing in Chicago—routinely use their guns to defend themselves and others from crime, rendering themselves and their communities safer from violence.

Almost every major study on the issue has found that Americans use their firearms in self-defense between 500,000 and 3 million times annually, according to a 2013 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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GO TIDE

Several gun rights bills filed before 2022 legislative session

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WAFF) – Alabama lawmakers will be back in Montgomery in less than a month for the 2022 legislative session and there are already several bills pre-filed by lawmakers with many dealing with gun rights.

Conceal carry without a permit

A third of the pre-filed bills deal with needing a concealed carry permit to carry. Senate Bill 1, sponsored by Senator Gerald Allen, would allow Alabamians to carry or possess a firearm in certain areas. Some of these areas are wildlife management areas and private property.

You would still not be able to carry a firearm in police and other law enforcement buildings, as well as, inside a prison or other detention centers. However, it is not a violation if someone has a firearm locked in their vehicle at a sheriff’s office that issues permits.

Another bill, House Bill 44, covers the same thing as Senate Bill 1 and is sponsored by 39 republican state representatives, including Speaker of the House Representative Mac McCutcheon.

House Bill 6 and Senate Bill 12 would allow people to carry, or have in their vehicle, a pistol or other concealed firearms without a permit. The bill would also remove the presumption of intent to commit a violent crime if someone has a firearm without a permit. This means if a person is just carrying a pistol, holstered or secured, in a public place, it is not illegal under these bills.

These bills are sponsored by Senator Tim Melson of Florence and representatives Shane Stringer and Proncey Robertson.

Bills on federal regulation

Not only are politicians looking inward at state laws but they are also looking out to the federal government.

Senate Bill 2 and House Bill 7 would both create the Alabama Second Amendment Preservation Act. This act would prohibit state law enforcement from enforcing any federal law, or other legislation, regarding the regulation of firearms, firearm accessories or ammo.

The bills would also set up penalties for whatever agency violates the proposed bill. The penalty for a first offense is a class C misdemeanor with a fine no less than $500 or more than $5,000. For all other offenses, it is a class B misdemeanor with a fine no less than $1,000 or more than $7,000.

Under Senate Bill 2, a state political subdivision will also not receive grant funds if it adopts a rule or other policy which violates this act. They would be denied those funds the following fiscal year of the conviction.

The bills are sponsored by Senator Gerald Allen and representatives James Hanes and Arnold Mooney.

A different bill, House Bill 13, would prohibit state law enforcement from enforcing any federal bill or other legislation pertaining to the regulation of firearms, firearm accessories or ammo, just like Senate Bill 2. However, this only pertains to those made and sold in Alabama.

Under existing constitution law, Congress is given the authority to regulate interstate commerce. This bill would provide that firearms, ammo and firearm accessories that are made in the state and are only traded within the state are not subject to federal law or regulation.

The 2022 Alabama Legislation Session begins on January 11, 2022.

A Flawed Case Against Black Self-Defense
In the face of state failure, neglect, and overt hostility, black Americans need the right to bear arms.

The Second: Race and Guns in a Fatally Unequal America, by Carol Anderson, Bloomsbury Publishing, 258 pages, $28

Carol Anderson claims the Second Amendment is rooted in the goal of suppressing slave insurrections and therefore is irredeemably racist. Yes, racism has infected other constitutional provisions. But for the Second Amendment, Anderson argues in The Second: Race and Guns in a Fatally Unequal America, the affliction is incurable.

“The Second Amendment is so inherently structurally flawed, so based on Black exclusion and debasement, that, unlike the other amendments, it can never be a pathway to civil and human rights for 47.5 million African Americans,” Anderson writes. She compares the “current-day veneration of the Second Amendment” to “holding the three-fifths clause sacrosanct,” arguing that both were “designed to deny African Americans humanity and rights while carrying the aura of constitutional legitimacy.”

Reading these claims, I expected a full-frontal attack on the contrary ideas I have developed in my own scholarship. Moving to the endnotes, I was surprised to find my work liberally cited. Anderson and I have worked through much of the same material but reached dramatically different conclusions about the utility, legitimacy, and importance of the right to arms in general and for black folk in particular.

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What Questions Should Second Amendment Supporters Ask Candidates For State Offices?

Second Amendment supporters should be familiar with the federalist structure that was established by the Constitution. In many ways, it has proven to be a very robust bulwark to protect our Second Amendment rights. Yes, the situation may suck in some of them, but the damage has been limited compared to what happened to gun owners in places like England, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

In 2022, Second Amendment supporters have a chance to strengthen the defenses of the Second Amendment. Most states will be electing governors (and other statewide offices), and almost all will elect state legislatures. The stakes are high, and it will be crucial to ask candidates for office the right questions to avoid disappointments like Larry Hogan.

We can start with people running for state legislatures. These are races where grassroots efforts can make a big difference, especially in primary elections.

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Tracing Spurious Claims

Since leading anti-gun researchers acknowledged no connection between the 2020 surge in firearms sales and violence, unscrupulous anti-gun advocates must cite underwhelming statistics as meaningful evidence.

That’s what The Trace did, in an article written in collaboration with FiveThirtyEight. We’d expect a more sophisticated analysis from FiveThirtyEight, but this is what Nate Silver’s outfit gave the world:

“New Data Suggests a Connection Between Pandemic Gun Sales and Increased Violence.”

Ominous, right? The operative word here is “suggests.” They can’t use anything stronger because this is a very rudimentary analysis – there is no identification of causality. There is no actual statistical test to even indicate an association between the two variables.

Bloomberg’s activist-journalists looked at ATF reports showing the number of firearms traced broken out by the time between retail sale and tracing. They report that the number of firearms traced within a year of retail sale increased significantly from 2019 to 2020. The so-called journalists try to humanize the data by pointing to a pair of examples, developing the strongest emotional levers they could muster. Those cases are, of course, awful but are unlikely to be representative of all such traces.

So, the number of firearms traced within a year increased in a year in which the number of all guns sold increased. That seems proportional. The Trace covers this point, too: the ratio of guns traced within seven months of retail sale to all gun sales has increased annually since 2013. That sounds much more dramatic than the proportion increased from about 0.11% to 0.3% from 2013 through 2020.

That is eleven-one-hundredths of a percent to three-tenths of a percent. Naturally, that means that 99.7% of firearms are not traced within seven months of their acquisition.

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New York aims big on gun control — and misses, again

In hunting, there is an old adage: “aim small, miss small.” The point is that, if you want to hit a target, aim for a small part rather than the whole target. It is often the difference between a total miss and a marginal hit. In the area of Second Amendment law, the most promising legislative measures are the ones that aim small on the edges of the constitutionally-based right — the strategy used by abortion opponents. The problem is that politicians rarely want to aim small when they are trying to score big with voters.

An example is the recent New York public nuisance law seeking to make gun manufacturers liable for gun crime. Not only is the law likely to be a large miss, it will likely deliver another blow to gun control efforts by adding precedent protecting Second Amendment rights.

I’ve discussed the New York public nuisance law aimed at gun manufacturers, a law that doubles down on a failed legal theory using torts as a substitute for direct legislative bans or barriers. As expected, gun groups like the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) as well as 14 firearms manufacturers, distributors, and retailers are now filing suit. They should have an excellent shot at a preliminary injunction.

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