With this bug, I think it’s better for the hospitals to prepare for something that may be 10 times worse than a ‘severe’ flu season. As it is, his estimate of how deadly it is, the CFR or “Case Fatality Rate”, is an average of only .05% or 1 out of 200, and that’s much less than the 3-3.5% number being bandied about. Of course, that’s an average and our elderly seem to have it worse off.
Hospitals are bracing for millions of Americans to be hospitalized as part of the novel coronavirus outbreak.
The American Hospital Association, which represents thousands of hospitals and health systems, hosted a webinar in February with its member hospitals and health systems. Business Insider obtained a copy of the slides presented.
As part of the presentation to hospitals, Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his “best guess” estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US.
Lawler’s estimates include:
4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus
96 million cases overall in the US
480,000 deaths
Overall, the slide points out that hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that’s 10 times a severe flu season.
Here’s the slide:
AHA webinar
The slide does not give a particular time frame.
The slide represents “his interpretation of the data available. It’s possible that forecast will change as more information becomes available,” a spokesman for Nebraska Medicine told Business Insider in an email.
The American Hospital Association said the webinar reflects the views of the experts who spoke on it, not its own.
“The AHA regularly hosts webinars and conference calls that include a variety of voices and opinions that seek to provide relevant information to professionals at hospitals and health systems that are on the front lines of preparing for and protecting their patients and communities,” a spokeswoman for the AHA told Business Insider in an emailed statement. “The slides you shared reflect the various perspectives of field experts and should not be attributed to the AHA.”
In particular, the slide points out that hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that’s 10 times a severe flu season.
