“I’ll take Dismal Failures for $500. Alex”
Have U.S. Gun Buyback Programs Misfired?
“Gun buyback programs (GBPs), which use public funds to purchase civilians’ privately-owned firearms, aim to reduce gun violence. However, little is known about their effects on firearm-related crime or deaths. Using data from the National Incident Based Reporting System, we find no evidence that GBPs reduce gun crime. Given our estimated null findings, with 95 percent confidence, we can rule out decreases in firearm-related crime of greater than 1.3 percent during the year following a buyback.”
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Moreover, during the first two months following the gun buyback, we find that a GBP is associated with an increase in incidents of firearm-related crime.
The 7.7 percent increase in gun crime we detect in column (4) is relatively modest, suggesting at most, two additional gun crimes.
Again, the findings in the pre-treatment period are consistent with the common trends assumption. In the post-treatment period, we find a small increase in gun crime over the first year following a GBP, followed by longer-run null results.
Across the three specifications presented in Table 4, we show that GBPs are associated with a 6.9 percent increase in gun as compared to non-gun crime in the two months following a gun buyback.
In the posttreatment period, we find no evidence that GBPs reduce gun crime (panel a) or non-gun crime (panel b) in the 24 months following its enactment. 26 We find a small, short-run (month of enactment) increase in gun relative to non-gun crime.
In addition, firearms sold in buybacks do not appear to be those that would typically be used to commit gun crime. Approximately 25 percent of GBP participants reported that the firearms they sold were not in good working order (Romero et al. 1998). A study of a series of gun buybacks in Milwaukee, Wisconsin between 1994 and 1997 found that the types of firearms turned in were more likely to be older weapons with longer barrels and smaller magazine size(Kuhn et al. 2002). Such weapon traits are not commonly linked to firearm-related homicides and suicides (Planty and Truman 2013).
These findings are consistent with adverse selection in firearm quality that one would expect to observe with a relatively low offer price and no price discrimination.
Moreover, income gains to GBP participants selling low quality firearms could result in an increase the supply of properly functioning guns.