NKARA: Brigadier General Nasser Shabani, a commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, died from the Covid-19 coronavirus on Friday, Iran’s semi-official Fars news Agency reported.
Anadolu Agency quoted Fars as saying that Shabani began his career in 1982 during the Iran-Iraq War.
The commander is one of many leading Iranian political, religious and military figures who have been infected with or died from Covid-19.
The Isis terrorist group is steering clear of Europe because of the coronavirus. Having previously urged its supporters to attack European cities, the group is now advising members to “stay away from the land of the epidemic” in case they become infected.
The group has issued a new set of “sharia directives” that instruct followers to “cover their mouths when yawning and sneezing” and to wash their hands regularly. Isis militants have plenty of experience in covering their faces, though previously they did so to hide their identities when beheading hostages on camera.
In the latest issue of its al-Naba newsletter, the group refers not to guidance from the World Health Organisation or other medical experts, but to recorded quotes by the Prophet Muhammad, known to Muslims as hadiths.
The newsletter refers to a “plague” described as a “torment sent by God on whomsoever He wills”. Another message notes: “Illnesses do not strike by themselves but by the command and decree of God.”
Isis has lost almost all its so-called caliphate in the Middle East after a string of defeats , but its fragmented remains are still active in Iraq and Syria.
The newsletter warned that the “healthy should not enter the land of the epidemic and the afflicted should not exit from it”.
But it may not be safe in the Middle East either — Iraq has already reported 101 cases of the coronavirus and 10 deaths.
Now it’s naps too? Okay. I think I can handle this one as well as the others.
As our campuses prepare to close and plans are developed to move our courses online, faculty, staff and administrators are moving into crisis-management mode. At my institution, Duke University, our team has quickly come together, by circumstance and by choice. Emails are flying, spring breaks have been forgone, phone calls are being taken in the carpool lane and so forth. We are on it!
Except how long can we sustain this?
We already know that work-life balance is a myth in the academy, and it certainly gets skewed in times of crisis. But COVID-19 threatens to be a long-term crisis. We’re not just closing campuses now but also canceling important events in the future (even graduation, maybe?), impacting enrollments in the fall and beyond, for example. We can expect many continuing reverberations.
How are we going to sustain ourselves now and for the long term?…….
We can also remind each other to take breaks, to reassure each other that it is okay to log out of email once in a while. In my case, I reminded my colleagues to pay attention to nearby Duke Forest, where there are more trout lilies than I’ve ever seen! We need to get outside and breathe deeply of our spring air before pollen descends.
Given that we are responding to a public health crisis, it only makes sense to prioritize our personal health. Yet for many of us, that is the first thing to go.
I had wondered, what with the UK being among the nations with a higher infection rate, why it was originally not included.
Vice President Mike Pence announced during Saturday’s coronavirus press briefing that the United Kingdom has been added to the White House’s coronavirus travel restriction list.
President Donald Trump announced Wednesday night that the U.S. would ban all travel for foreign nationals who had recently visited Europe but kept the U.K. off that list. Politico accused the White House of exempting the U.K. in order to protect business at the three Trump-owned golf resorts in Scotland and Ireland.
Europe is now the “epicentre” of the global coronavirus pandemic, the head of the World Health Organization says.
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged countries to use aggressive measures, community mobilisation and social distancing to save lives.
“Do not just let this fire burn,” he said.
His comments came as several European countries reported steep rises in infections and deaths. Italy has recorded its highest daily toll yet.
There were 250 deaths recorded over the past 24 hours, taking the total to 1,266, with 17,660 infections overall.
Spain, the worst-affected European country after Italy, reported a 50% jump in fatalities to 120 on Friday. Infections increased to 4,231.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez says a state of alert will come into effect there on Saturday for two weeks.
Why Europe could be worse off than China
The number of cases of coronavirus reported every day in Europe has surpassed China at its peak.
But Europe is in a worse position.
The overwhelming majority of China’s cases were in one place, Hubei province and those were largely concentrated in one city, Wuhan.
It was dealt with by an authoritarian government that imposed the biggest quarantine in human history.
While there are hotspots in Europe, this is an outbreak across a continent and different countries are adopting very different strategies for dealing with coronavirus.
All these figures are based on cases that have been detected, but scientists fear there could be large outbreaks going on unnoticed in countries that don’t have the tools to spot them.
President Trump has suspended all travel from mainland Europe. If this sounds excessive you clearly haven’t been paying attention to just how bad things have got with the coronavirus in parts of the continent.
Northern Italy, especially, is experiencing horrors more redolent of a Medieval plague than of an advanced economy in the 21st century.
This thread, reportedly from a doctor working in an Accident and Emergency department in a Northern Italian hospital, gives a grim taste:
The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity
We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.
Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.
In other words, many of Italy’s hospitals are overwhelmed. Every day they are having to make terrible Sophie’s Choice style decisions about which patients to save and which ones should be condemned to death — because they simply don’t have enough staff or equipment to keep them all alive.
Unless Trump takes drastic action — presuming it isn’t already too late — then this is the fate that awaits America too.
That’s why he was absolutely right to act in this dramatic way and for at least two good reasons.
First, political: it’s imperative — especially for those of us who believe that a second Trump term is America’s only hope — that by the year-end, when with luck the pandemic will have passed or at least diminished, President Trump emerges as a man who handled this crisis decisively and effectively. It would be just too awful if, despite his many achievements, Trump ended up handing the election to Joe Biden because of a public perception that he’d been dilatory in protecting America from the 21st century’s answer to the Black Death.
Second, geopolitical: Trump is right to shut off continental Europe because — in plague terms — it is the equivalent of one of those diseased carcasses that besieging armies used to fling with their ballistas over the city walls.
This is a consequence of its open borders policy. Under the European Union’s Schengen Agreement — one of the bloc’s defining features and by their own reckoning, greatest achievement — there is almost complete freedom of movement across national borders. Which means that everyone from gun- and drug-smugglers to terrorists to coronavirus victims can travel from one end of the continent to the other, with individual states virtually powerless to protect their own borders or citizens.
For those parents who haven’t already converted to home schooling to remove their children from public school those cesspools of leftist indoctrination
COVID-19 is in the news with new cases reported every day. The list of schools, colleges, and other institutions suspending their efforts is also adding up. But there’s one education sector that may get away with minimal disruption: homeschoolers. Families that take responsibility for their kids’ education have a distinct edge in terms of flexibility and adaptability when it comes to unexpected events like … well … a worldwide pandemic that has people on edge.
“Closing schools and using internet-based teleschooling to continue education” was the scenario envisioned by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Dr. Nancy Messonier in a February 25 press conference. “You should ask your children’s school about their plans for school dismissals or school closures. Ask if there are plans for teleschool.”
Teleschool? Homeschoolers are so on that. Or if they’re not into teleschooling, they have a stack of books and papers, kitchen-counter science experiments, video lectures … The list goes on, and much of it adds up to the “social distancing measures” of which teleschooling is supposed to be part.
What’s “social distancing”? As Messonnier noted, social distancing is “designed to keep people who are sick away from others.” That means breaking up large gatherings where germs can be shared and spread.
Discouraging gatherings is an important move from a public health perspective, but it’s enormously disruptive to businesses, government bodies, and organizations that are designed around assembling large numbers of people in one place. That means big challenges for, among other institutions, traditional brick-and-mortar schools. Homeschoolers, however, have an edge because their efforts are not inherently constructed around large gatherings.
That doesn’t mean that homeschoolers never get together. Contrary to accusations from critics, family-based education is not an inherently solitary venture.
Homeschooling often involves group lessons that take advantage of specialized expertise, collaborative projects, field trips with homeschooling associations, sports teams, and more—which means that homeschoolers have changes to make in a time of pandemic, too, in terms of reducing or eliminating outings and activities. But that doesn’t mean cutting down on education; these days, there are loads of relatively easy work-arounds for homeschooling families.
If you’re new to family-based education, and especially if you’re busy with your own remote work, you may find it best to go with a comprehensive online program, like a virtual publicly-funded charter school or tuition-charging private school.
Virtual private schools are available anywhere in the United States, while the availability of charters depends on your local laws. Arizona, where I live, maintains a list of virtual charter schools, but you’ll need to do a bit of research for your own state.
Besides full schools, the Internet is a treasure-trove of learning materials that don’t require you to trek to a bookstore, a lecture hall, or even to wait for package delivery. Classic literature is available for free in electronic format through Project Gutenberg, Khan Academy has long since expanded beyond its original mission of delivering math lessons, the American Chemical Society gives away a complete chemistry curriculum, and a variety of lesson plans are freely available from the National Endowment for the Humanities’ Edsitement. If you’re interested, I’ve prepared a downloadable list of resources.
I’ve never met a conference software that I’ve loved—video sometimes freezes, audio drops out, and connections fail. That said, my son has used both Blackboard and Zoom in the course of his lessons, and he and his peers as young as 10 or so took to it naturally, even troubleshooting glitches as needed. Conferencing software will accommodate presentations, feedback, shared screens, and other means of simulating a classroom across distances and without putting students in one place to share germs. Teachers and students can even transfer files back and forth.
Skype is an excellent stand-by for online meetings with teachers. Yes, your kids can be verbally quizzed in a foreign language across that platform while the teacher looks on to check for cheat sheets or other shortcuts. The kids might then receive messaged feedback through the same software.
For teamwork on projects, I think working online may be more effective than getting a bunch of kids together in one room. Recently, I got to listen to a bunch of 14- and 15-year-olds collaborate on a script for a skit that they edited in Google Docs. For presentations, they’ve worked the same way in Google Slides. One nice feature is that the technological solutions really cut down on the “I left my work at my friend’s house” factor. No, you didn’t, kid; it’s sitting in the cloud.
(Incidentally, collaborative software doesn’t make teenagers act any less like teenagers. If forced to listen in, you will still want to bang your head on a table.)
When it comes to sharing short pieces of work, art, and the like, my son and his friends sometimes take photos of their efforts and text them to each other or to an instructor. That’s a quick and easy solution in many cases when uploading and downloading documents is more effort than necessary.
The hard part isn’t finding work for your home students to do; it’s keeping them focused. Every child is different, and some are more self-directed than others.
Yes, you will have to check on them even if you’re not directly administering their lessons. That can be a challenge for new homeschoolers, but my experience is that most kids respond better to mom and dad than they do to teachers they barely know and won’t see after the year’s end.
Socializing is where the “social distancing” recommended for our virus-ridden times bites deep. But I have to imagine that cell phones, social media, and video chat make easier work of dealing with the requirements of the pandemic than what our ancestors suffered when they dodged polio or the Spanish flu. The kids can all complain to each other over their favorite apps about the privations they’re suffering in these hard times.
Fast delivery, downloadable books, and streaming video do away with a bit of the sting, too. The kids can still consume current media and discuss their favorite shows and novels—just not face-to-face for a while.
And here’s the thing. If you try homeschooling, you may discover that it’s not just a good way to keep COVID-19 at bay, but an effective approach to education more generally and a good fit for your family. If so, well, welcome to a happy, healthy, and growing club.
In a series of interviews with Good Morning America and CBS This Morning, Fauci gave his bleak assessment of what is still to come
White House coronavirus expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Friday morning that the current state of crisis in the US would last for two months and that ‘it’s all on the table’ in terms of how much more severe things may become.
In a series of interviews with Good Morning America and CBS This Morning, Fauci gave his bleak assessment of what is still to come.
‘It’s certainly going to get worse before it gets better…there’s no doubt we have not peaked yet,’ he said.
Asked directly if America was heading towards a complete shutdown like China and Italy, he would not rule it out.
‘I’m not sure we’re going to get to that.
‘I think that would be really rather dramatic, but I can tell you that all things are on the table.
‘We just have to respond as things evolve over the days and the weeks,’ he said.
There has been a dramatic shift in tone from the government in the last several days.
At the start of the week, President Trump was advising Americans not to panic and even said the virus would ‘go away’.
He then shut the border to Europeans, and said on Thursday that even US citizens who test positive for the virus would not be allowed to come home.
Fauci’s prediction was that there will be at least another several weeks of the current mode of crisis, but that it could last up to two months.
‘It will be at least a matter of several weeks. It’s unpredictable, but if you look at historically how these things work, it will likely be anywhere from a few weeks to up to eight weeks.
President Donald Trump plans to declare a national emergency on Friday over the coronavirus outbreak, invoking the Stafford Act to open the door to more federal aid for states and municipalities, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The president said he will hold a news conference at 3 p.m. in Washington. Trump spoke Friday with Emmanuel Macron, the French president tweeted, about the pandemic, and agreed to organize a video conference with world leaders on Monday to coordinate research efforts on a vaccine and treatments and work on how to respond to the economic fallout.
Trump is under increasing pressure to act as governors and mayors nationwide step up actions to mitigate the spread, closing schools and canceling public events. Declaring a national emergency would allow the government to marshal additional resources to combat the virus, and also marks a symbolic turning point for the president, who has repeatedly compared the coronavirus to the seasonal flu and insisted that his administration had the outbreak under control.
An emergency declaration would allow a state to request a 75% federal cost-share for expenses that include emergency workers, medical tests, medical supplies, vaccinations, security for medical facilities, and more, according to a letter Democrats sent the president earlier this week.
Only a few emergency declarations for public health threats have been made since the 1960s, and only two have targeted disease outbreaks, when President Bill Clinton in 2000 declared emergencies in New York and New Jersey in response to the West Nile Virus.
Gun sales in the San Gabriel Valley, a region east of Los Angeles, have soared in recent weeks among Asian Americans who fear being attacked over the outbreak of the coronavirus, according to reports.
Attacks on Asian Americans have been on the rise amid the outbreak of COVID-19. Earlier this month, a video emerged on Facebook of a man on a New York City subway spraying Febreze at an Asian subway straphanger, the New York Post reported. Police are investigated the incident as a hate crime.
And last month, an Asian woman was attacked at a New York City subway station. A man noticed that she was wearing a face mask and called her a “diseased b—-.”
At Arcadia Firearm & Safety, a gun store in San Gabriel Valley, owner David Liu told CBSLA he’s had a surge of sales in recent weeks from Asian American customers who are concerned over the possibility of similar attacks.
In the City of Industry, the store Gun Effects and Cloud Nine Fishing, has also experienced more Asian American customers buying firearms.
“Our staff is not accustomed to this kind of rush,” owner Dennis Lin told KABC. “But this made it really, really crazy.”
Lin said he believes the fear over the coronavirus is exaggerated.
“Just people discriminating,” he said. “We forget, we’re all people. We’re in America, we’re not in China.”
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Asians make up slightly less than 30 percent of the San Gabriel Valley’s 1.85 million residents.
I transferred out of Washington state a bit less than 30 years ago and have never been back. Nothing personal to our friends there, but I think I’ll keep trying to increase that record.
The statewide death toll from the coronavirus climbed to 30 on Wednesday, after a third Snohomish County man died along with three others in King County, health officials said.
The Snohomish County man, who is in his 80s, was one of three residents of the Josephine Caring Community in Stanwood who previously were confirmed to have the virus and were taken to a local hospital. No further details were available about the three additional King County deaths.
So far, 26 people have died from COVID-19 in King County, three in Snohomish County and one in Grant County. The number of confirmed cases in Washington state is now 366, according to new numbers posted Wednesday by the state Department of Health……………
Gov. Jay Inslee said at a Wednesday morning news conference that the true number of cases is believed to be much larger – on the order of 1,000 or more.
Large Gatherings Banned in Puget Sound Metro Area
Inslee also announced a ban Wednesday on gatherings and events of more than 250 people in virtually the entire Seattle metro area to try to stop the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak .
The ban covers King, Snohomish and Pierce Counties and affects gatherings for “social, spiritual and recreational activities. These include but are not limited to: community, civic, public, leisure, faith-based, or sporting events; parades; concerts; festivals; conventions; fundraisers and similar activities.”
Two top U.S. medical experts told members of Congress Wednesday the COVID-19 outbreak now raging across 36 states and inflicting 32 deaths as of Wednesday will dramatically worsen and might lead to the infection of up to 150 million Americans, or about half the total U.S. population.
Rear Admiral Dr. Brian Monahan, the Attending Physician of the United States Congress and the United States Supreme Court, told senators during a closed-door meeting he expects 70 million to 150 million people in the U.S. will become infected with COVID-19, as reported by NBC News.
Speaking mostly about how members of Congress can better protect themselves against the coronavirus, Adm. Monahan said senators and congressmen shouldn’t travel abroad if they don’t have to. He said there are as yet no restrictions on domestic travel.
Adm. Monahan also told those present that coronavirus testing will only be administered to members of Congress. On the other hand, Congressional staffers should see their doctors if they experience any COVID-19 symptoms. Adm. Monahan also reaffirmed a consistent message that ultimately, 80% of those that contract the coronavirus will be fine.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the most common novel coronavirus symptoms that might appear 2 to 14 days after exposure are fever, cough and shortness of breath. It urges people to call their doctors if they develop symptoms, and have been in close contact with a person known to have COVID-19.
Also on Wednesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testified before the House Oversight and Reform Committee about the country’s preparedness for the fast-spreading COVID-19 outbreak. He pointed out the coronavirus will continue to spread because containment measures and contact tracing have failed to prevent community spread of the highly-infectious coronavirus.
“Is the worst yet to come, Dr. Fauci?” aked Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-NY, chairwoman of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform.
“Yes, it is,” Dr. Fauci replied.
Dr. Fauci said while the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is being contained in some respects, the U.S. is seeing more cases emerge through community spread, as well as international travel.
“I can say we will see more cases, and things will get worse than they are right now,” said Dr. Fauci. “How much worse we’ll get will depend on our ability to do two things: to contain the influx of people who are infected coming from the outside, and the ability to contain and mitigate within our own country.”……………
For many countries staring down fast-rising coronavirus case counts, the race is on to “flatten the curve.”
The United States and other countries, experts say, are likely to be hit by tsunamis of Covid-19 cases in the coming weeks without aggressive public health responses. But by taking certain steps — canceling large public gatherings, for instance, and encouraging some people to restrict their contact with others — governments have a shot at stamping out new chains of transmission, while also trying to mitigate the damage of the spread that isn’t under control.
The epidemic curve, a statistical chart used to visualize when and at what speed new cases are reported, could be flattened, rather than being allowed to rise exponentially.
“If you look at the curves of outbreaks, they go big peaks, and then come down. What we need to do is flatten that down,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters Tuesday. “That would have less people infected. That would ultimately have less deaths. You do that by trying to interfere with the natural flow of the outbreak.”
The notion that the curve of this outbreak could be flattened began to gain credence after China took the extraordinary step of locking down tens of millions of people days in advance of the Lunar New Year, to prevent the virus from spreading around the country from Wuhan, the city where the outbreak appears to have started. Many experts at the time said it would have been impossible to slow a rapidly transmitting respiratory infection by effectively shutting down enormous cities — and possibly counterproductive.
But the quarantines, unprecedented in modern times, appear to have prevented explosive outbreaks from occurring in cities outside of Hubei province, where Wuhan is located.
Since then, spread of the virus in China has slowed to a trickle; the country reported only 19 cases on Monday. And South Korea, which has had the third largest outbreak outside of China, also appears to be beating back transmission through aggressive actions. But other places, notably Italy and Iran, are struggling.
For weeks, a debate has raged about whether the virus could be “contained” — an approach the WHO has been exhorting countries to focus on — or whether it made more sense to simply try to lessen the virus’ blow, an approach known as “mitigation.”
That argument has been counterproductive, Mike Ryan, the head of the WHO’s health emergencies program, said Monday.
“I think we’ve had this unfortunate emergence of camps around the containment camp, the mitigation camp — different groups presenting and championing their view of the world. And frankly speaking, it’s not helpful,” Ryan told reporters.
Caitlin Rivers, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said any lessening of spread will help health systems remain functional.
“Even if we are not headed to zero transmission, any cases that we can prevent and any transmission that we can avoid are going to have enormous impact,” she said. “Not only on the individuals who end up not getting sick but all of the people that they would have ended up infecting. … And so the more that we can minimize it, the better.”……..
The Trump Coronavirus Task Force held another press briefing in the White House on Tuesday evening.
The press conference was led by Vice President Mike Pence who was joined by top US health leaders including HHS Secretary Alex Azar, Surgeon General Jerome Adams and Larry Kudlow, the Director of the National Economic Council.
During questioning the NBC reporter Geoff Bennett accused the administration of not supplying COVID-19 test kits to medical facilities.
Reporter Geoff Bennett: So when can the American people expect to see these test kits available at doctor’s offices and urgent care clinics?
HHS Secretary Alex Azar: By the end of this weekend we had 1.1 million test kits that originally shipped. We have another one million that are either in transit or waiting for orders. So we actually have a surplus capacity already that have been produced… The tests are out there.
The tests are in every public health lab in the country. They’re in hospitals. They’re in labs.
But I think there is a false premise in your question. Which is a notion that just because I as a person can say, “Oh, I’d like to be tested for the novel coronavirus.” I should be walking into any minute clinic or any other facility and just walking in and saying, “Give me my test.”
That’s not how diagnostic testing works in the United States or frankly almost any place in the world… We’ve always been clear if their doctor or public health physician believes they should be tested it needs to always be clinically indicated to receive a test.
And with that Secretary Azar destroyed ANOTHER liberal media lie.
Nearly 200 people have died in Italy from the novel coronavirus in one day, NBC News reports.
The Italian Civil Protection Agency confirmed to the news agency that the country, which has the worst outbreak of COVID-19 outside of China, recorded 196 deaths between Tuesday to Wednesday. NBC News reports a total of 897 deaths from the virus have been recorded in the country thus far.
The confirmation comes after earlier reports placed the total number of COVID-19 cases in Italy at 10,000 on Wednesday.
…..One factor affecting the country’s death rate may be the age of its population—Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy’s deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19.
MADRID (AP) — Spain’s health minister reported a sharp spike in coronavirus cases in and around Madrid and said all schools in the capital region, from kindergartens and universities, would close for two weeks starting Wednesday.
Italians are being told to stay inside unless they need to buy medicines by health authorities patrolling neighborhoods with loudspeakers as the coronavirus quarantine begins to take hold.
A German export ban on masks that protects against the coronavirus has angered Austria and Switzerland. “It can’t be that Germany is holding back products for Austria just because they happen to be stored in a German location,” said Austrian economy minister Margarete Schramboeck. “These products are for the Austrian market, and unilateral moves by Germany are just causing problems in other countries,” she added.
South Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China, although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran.
As of end-Monday, it had 7,513 cases and 54 deaths. The Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there was an increase of 131 cases from Sunday to Monday.
The country averaged more than 500 new infections a day for the past two weeks, but last Friday, this number dipped to 438, then 367 on Saturday and 248 on Sunday. The daily number of confirmed cases is reported the following day.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Monday noted his country’s “slowing trend” of new infections but warned: “We should not be complacent at all.”
His point was underscored by the KCDC, which said that among the new patients were more than 60 people who were infected while working in close proximity to each other at an insurance company call centre.
“The total number of new confirmed cases is on a downturn but there are concerns over such mass infection cases”, said KCDC Deputy Director Kwon Jun-wook.
A new study published this week conducted by researchers for the American College of Physicians details how long it generally takes for symptoms of coronavirus to show up and provides recommendations on how long to self-isolate if exposed to the virus.
The study, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine on Monday, found that it takes by average about 5 days for symptoms of coronavirus to show up after infection — about 95% of the cases researchers studied showed up within 4 to 6 days — and that almost all (97.5%) who have been infected have displayed symptoms within 12 days.
Based on those findings, researchers concluded, the Centers for Disease Control’s (CDC) recommendation of a 14-day self-isolation period for those who have been potentially exposed to the virus is appropriate, though a longer period might be justified in some “extreme cases” — which the researchers describe as “high-risk scenarios,” like health care workers who care for COVID-19 patients without proper protective equipment. Excerpts from the report below:
There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine. … This work provides additional evidence for a median incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 5 days, similar to SARS. Our results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases.
Although our results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases. Among those who are infected and will develop symptoms, we expect 101 in 10 000 (99th percentile, 482) will do so after the end of a 14-day monitoring period (Table 2 and Figure 3), and our analyses do not preclude this estimate from being higher. Although it is essential to weigh the costs of extending active monitoring or quarantine against the potential or perceived costs of failing to identify a symptomatic case, there may be high-risk scenarios (for example, a health care worker who cared for a COVID-19 patient while not wearing personal protective equipment) where it could be prudent to extend the period of active monitoring.
In its current risk assessment for the virus, the Centers for Disease Control maintains that the risk of being exposed remains low for the majority of people in most parts of the country and in most professions. Below are the summaries of the CDC’s current risk assessment:
For the majority of people, the immediate risk of being exposed to the virus that causes COVID-19 is thought to be low. There is not widespread circulation in most communities in the United States.
People in places where ongoing community spread of the virus that causes COVID-19 has been reported are at elevated risk of exposure, with increase in risk dependent on the location.
Healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 are at elevated risk of exposure.
Close contacts of persons with COVID-19 also are at elevated risk of exposure.
Travelers returning from affected international locations where community spread is occurring also are at elevated risk of exposure, with increase in risk dependent on location.
While the risk of contracting the virus for most Americans remains low, the CDC explains that the number of cases will likely continue to expand in the coming days and presents the following potential scenarios for how that might impact the communities:
More cases of COVID-19 are likely to be identified in the United States in the coming days, including more instances of community spread. It’s likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, and workplaces, may experience more absenteeism. Mass gatherings may be sparsely attended or postponed. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and sectors of the transportation industry may also be affected. Healthcare providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy.
Dr. Daniele Macchini, a doctor at Humanitas Gavazzeni hospital in Bergamo, northern Italy, described on Facebook how his hospital has been affected by coronavirus.
“After much thought about if and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence is not responsible,” he wrote. “Therefore I will try to tell people who are far from our reality about what we are living in Bergamo in these days. I understand the need not to create panic, but when the message of how dangerous events are is not reaching people, I shake with fear.”
“I myself watched with a certain amount of amazement as the hospital was reorganized entirely over the past week. When our current enemy was still in the shadows: The departments ‘slowly emptied,’ elective activities were stopped, ICU patients were transferred there in order to empty as many beds as possible.
“All of these rapid changes brought an atmosphere of surreal silence and emptiness to the hospitals’ hallways, when we still did not understand, when we were waiting for a war that had not yet begun and that many (including myself) were not sure that would ever come with such cruelty.
“I still remember the nighttime conversation I had a week ago, when I waited for the results of the test. When I think about it, my fear of the possible situation looks almost stupid and unjustified now, when I’m seeing what’s happening. And so, things are pretty dramatic here, to say the least.
“The war broke out, very simply, and the battles were endless, day and night. But now the need for beds has come to be big drama. One after the other, the departments which were emptied are filling up at an impressive pace.
“The boards with the patients’ names, in different colors in accordance with the operation units, now they’re all red and instead of the operation, we see always see the same horrible diagnosis: Bilateral interstitial lung disease.
“Now explain to me how the flu virus causes such drama, so quickly. And there are still people who are proud of the fact that they’re not scared, and ignore the guidelines, and protest that their lifestyle has ‘temporarily’ been put in crisis.
“The epidemiological disaster is happening. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists. We’re just doctors who have suddenly become part of one staff that’s facing this tsunami that’s overwhelmed us.
“The cases are becoming more numerous, we’re seeing 15-20 hospitalizations per day, and it’s all for the same reason. The test results come in now one after the other: Positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing.
“The reason for coming in is always identical: Fever and difficulty breathing, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology always reports the same thing: Bilateral lung infection, bilateral lung infection, bilateral lung infection. They’re all going to be hospitalized.
“One patient needs intubation and the intensive care unit. For others it’s too late….all the ventilation machines have become gold. Those in the operating rooms which have ceased their non-urgent work have become intensive care rooms which did not previously exist.
“The staff is exhausted. I saw their exhaustion on the faces which have not seen such work, despite the overload of work that already exhausted them. I saw the solidarity among everyone, who never ceased turning to our internal medicine doctors and colleagues, asking, ‘And what can I do for you now?’
“Doctors are moving beds and transferring patients. Nurses have tears in their eyes because we can’t save them all and thee vital signs of several of them simultaneously reveal their known fate.
“There’s no more shifts, there are no more hours. Our social lives have been put on hold. We don’t see our families already, out of fear we might infect them. Some of us have already become infected, despite the protective protocols.”
With this bug, I think it’s better for the hospitals to prepare for something that may be 10 times worse than a ‘severe’ flu season. As it is, his estimate of how deadly it is, the CFR or “Case Fatality Rate”, is an average of only .05% or 1 out of 200, and that’s much less than the 3-3.5% number being bandied about. Of course, that’s an average and our elderly seem to have it worse off.
Hospitals are bracing for millions of Americans to be hospitalized as part of the novel coronavirus outbreak.
The American Hospital Association, which represents thousands of hospitals and health systems, hosted a webinar in February with its member hospitals and health systems. Business Insider obtained a copy of the slides presented.
As part of the presentation to hospitals, Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his “best guess” estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US.
Lawler’s estimates include:
4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus
96 million cases overall in the US
480,000 deaths
Overall, the slide points out that hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that’s 10 times a severe flu season.
Here’s the slide:
AHA webinar
The slide does not give a particular time frame.
The slide represents “his interpretation of the data available. It’s possible that forecast will change as more information becomes available,” a spokesman for Nebraska Medicine told Business Insider in an email.
The American Hospital Association said the webinar reflects the views of the experts who spoke on it, not its own.
“The AHA regularly hosts webinars and conference calls that include a variety of voices and opinions that seek to provide relevant information to professionals at hospitals and health systems that are on the front lines of preparing for and protecting their patients and communities,” a spokeswoman for the AHA told Business Insider in an emailed statement. “The slides you shared reflect the various perspectives of field experts and should not be attributed to the AHA.”
In particular, the slide points out that hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that’s 10 times a severe flu season.
SEATTLE — Two more deaths from coronavirus were reported Saturday, bringing the total to 17 in Washington state. So far, at least 104 have tested positive for COVID-19, health officials said.
The deaths come just a day after three people died at EvergreenHealth Medical Hospital, officials said. One earlier reported death occurred in a patient never hospitalized and the other was a death at Harborview last week that was later found to have been likely caused by COVID-19. In total, there are 28 confirmed cases of coronavirus at EvergreenHealth.
Of the 16 coronavirus deaths reported in King County, 14 are associated with Life Care Center In Kirkland. Eighteen residents have also tested positive for COVID-19, according to Tim Killian, public liaison for Life Care Center.
Killian went on to say that since February 19, Life Care Center reported 26 deaths. Since that date, 11 additional patients died at the facility. They generally have three to seven deaths a month, Killian said. Life Care Center is still waiting back for reports on post-mortem testing and whether 11 of those patients tested positive for coronavirus. They received 45 testing kits on Thursday.
As for staff coming and going day-by-day, KOMO News is told they’re following infection control protocol. “We’ve learned that the virus is volatile, unpredictable,” Killian said. Patients have gone from showing no symptoms to being rushed to the hospital in an hour
Of the 120 residents at the facility, 54 were also transported to hospitals, Killian added. It’s not clear that all 54 were transported for coronavirus or other medical reasons.
Since February 19, Life Care accounted for 180 employees with 70 of them showing symptoms. They are self-quarantining at home. As for moving seemingly healthy people out of Life Center, KOMO News is told no one wants to take them in.
“We are working overtime to take care of residents,” Killian said. “This is a larger issue than just our facility. Encouraging anyone who visited to keep in touch with their doctors. No ballpark on how many people may have visited during the outbreak.”…….
Over in Kittitas County, a 67-year-old woman also tested positive for coronavirus Saturday, according to the Kittitas County Public Health Department. The woman is in stable condition and is self-quarantined at home with her spouse.
The test results are presumptive positive from the University of Washington, which means there will still be confirmatory testing completed at the Washington State Department of Health.
The virus has spread to Clark, Pierce, Jefferson, Grant, Snohomish and Kittitas counties, the Washington State Department of Health reports. Another 156 people are under public health supervision.
A patient at Issaquah Nursing and Rehabilitation Center tested positive for COVID-19 Saturday. Three Eastside Fire and Rescue firefighters who came in contact with the patient are self-quarantining out of an abundance of caution and are currently asymptomatic…….
