Two Americas

The greater New York City area stands alone on a map of the US with coronavirus cases and deaths.

Screenshot 2020-04-13 at 12.25.05 PM

On a per-capita basis I’ve done some quick calculations. Numbers get updated but the flavor remains the same:

With apologies to the good people of the great (but suffering) states of Illinois, Michigan and Louisiana, the US is basically two countries. New York (by which we mean, the Greatest City in the World and the surrounding counties) and New Jersey are having a death toll comparable to the most afflicted countries in Europe. 90% of the country, however, is running as well as Germany, which is widely regarded as a “How did they do it” success story.

And California?!? They had early inflows from China and the same President, FDA, and CDC as the rest of the US. Testing? Limited. Yet there they are, half the German per capita toll. Hard to credit Trump for that. Or blame him.

Why the difference? NYC is a major hub for international travel, its mass transit usage dwarfs other cities, its population density is 50% higher than San Francisco at number two, and who knows what else. [Another guess: California and Washington were hit from Wuhan and may have gotten some help from the Jan 31 China travel ban; NYC got more infections from Europe than Asia.]

Politically, one size clearly does not fit all across the US. Trump is a New Yorker. Its likely he and the media are very New York-centric (I know I am.) But we will be re-opening the economy by regions, not all at once.

DO NOTE: Official coronavirus deaths in NY have to be under-reported. “Excess deaths” above a typical year are off the charts. Yes, including off the charts that go back to 9/11.