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Biden: Wait Another Month or So to See if Sanctions Are Working.

In yet another… uneven press conference appearance, President Biden’s worst line was, “they are profound sanctions. Let’s have a conversation in another month or so to see if they’re working.”

It’s not clear that President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian government, and the Ukrainian armed forces have another month. Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting over control of Antonov Airfield, just 15 minutes from Kyiv. The Ukrainians are trying to hold off the Russians at Hostomel airport outside Kyiv. The Russian forces are attempting to secure Kyiv as quickly as possible – and if the Russians get control of those airfields, they can fly in a lot more reinforcements.

This assessment from a former U.S. Army infantry officer suggests the Ukrainians could hold out in the cities for a long while. But it’s anyone’s guess as to how the battles, large and small, play out from here. It is quite possible that time is indeed on the Ukrainians’ side; there’s at least one report indicating that a group of Russian forces surrendered when they realized the Ukrainians would fight back. Maybe Putin and the Russian military leadership severely underestimated the Ukrainian will to resist. But Russia can still bring a hell of a lot of ordinance down on any target. No one knows what the situation will look like tomorrow, much less a week or a month from now.

Economic sanctions don’t work particularly quickly; it takes time for Russians, from the oligarchs to the average citizen to feel the squeeze. Sanctions might have put real pressure on Putin’s allies — if they had been put in place a month ago.

President Biden said he wants to have a conversation in another month or so to see if sanctions are working. A month from now, there may not be much of a Ukrainian government left.