Report: Murders Plummeted in 2025; Meanwhile, Gun Ownership Up

New data shows a dramatic decline in homicides in 2025 from the previous year, even though industry data shows the number of guns in private ownership has gone up. (Dave Workman)

By Dave Workman

A new report from the Council on Criminal Justice says homicides have declined more than 20 percent in 2025 from the previous year, based on data from 40 large U.S. cities, and the media is playing it up.

As note by the New York Times, “Last year will likely register the lowest national homicide rate in 125 years and the largest single-year drop on record.”

According to the Council on Criminal Justice report:

  • Looking at changes in violent offenses, the rate of reported homicides was 21% lower in 2025 than in 2024in the 35 study cities providing data for that crime, representing 922 fewer homicides. There were 9% fewer reported aggravated assaults, 22% fewer gun assaults, and 2% fewer domestic violence incidents last year than in 2024. Robbery fell by 23% while carjackings (a type of robbery) decreased by 43%.
  • When nationwide data for jurisdictions of all sizes is reported by the FBI later this year, there is a strong possibility that homicides in 2025 will drop to about 4.0 per 100,000 residents. That would be the lowest rate ever recorded in law enforcement or public health data going back to 1900, and would mark the largest single-year percentage drop in the homicide rate on record.

This has occurred at a time when gun ownership appears to be at record levels in the U.S. Raw data from the FBI’s National Instant Check System shows more than 2 million background checks each month during 2025, and adjusted data from the National Shooting Sports Foundation shows gun sales have declined, but they are still healthy.

In its annual report, NSSF included this caveat: “Though not a direct correlation to firearms sales, the NSSF-adjusted NICS data provide an additional picture of current market conditions. In addition to other purposes, NICS is used to check transactions for sales or transfers of new or used firearms.

“It should be noted that these statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold or sales dollars. Based on varying state laws, local market conditions and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale.”

When NSSF released its annual report on firearm production in the U.S., including import and export data from 2023, it estimated there were 506.1 million firearms in civilian possession from 1990 to 2023. It has likely increased from that figure by several million.

Establishment media reports on the plummeting murder statistics have ignored or carefully avoided any mention of increased gun ownership and the number of firearms in private hands.

For several years, the gun prohibition lobby has been adamant with predictions that increased private gun ownership would result in a dramatic increase in homicides. This new report suggests otherwise.

 

Anti-ICE Signal Chats: Walz Administration Implicated, Foreign Funding Revealed

We’re learning a lot more about the people who were in the anti-ICE Signal chat groups that independent journalist Cam Higby infiltrated in Minnesota, the organization of the group, its donors, and the significance of the address at which Alex Pretti was obstructing federal officers. There’s far too much information to detail completely in this piece, but even just from an overview, it’s clear that there is an organized insurrection underway, led by several elected officials in Minnesota and aided by alleged journalists.

Let’s hit the highlights:

Organization

The groups are highly sophisticated. They’re set up geographically; within the City of Minneapolis, they’re generally divided by City Council district, but also cover St. Paul, Bloomington, and other suburbs. They start a new chat every day and delete the prior day’s chat. Because of Signal’s encryption, it would be exceedingly difficult for the deleted messages to be recovered unless, say, participants were recording those messages prior to deletion. Signal also has a “no screenshots” function, which undoubtedly was enabled on these chats, so the messages would have to be recorded the way Higby did – by recording using a separate phone.

They have a set of emojis that each user puts around their name when they’re on shift, to indicate what position they’re working that shift. For example:

Funding

On Sunday evening, Data Republican published a spreadsheet of 4000+ donors to the effort and their possible identities, and made that publicly downloadable. She also sent a non-redacted spreadsheet to the FBI and other federal authorities.

The first donation to the effort was made by Jonny Soppotiuk, a Canadian who helps run the crowdfunding site, Chuffed, which hosts the fundraiser.

She wrote:

BREAKING: SIGNALGATE DONORS LIST AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD; POLITICIANS + FOREIGN LEADERSHIP CONFIRMED?

In one of the files revealed by @camhigby, a resources file directs people with money to a website, Stand with Minnesota, which in turns directs donors to a campaign ran by Tending the Soil on Chuffed.

More about Tending the Soil later. What to know: the campaign is hosted by Chuffed and the first donation came from Jonny Soppotiuk, a Canada-based community organizer who is part of Chuffed leadership and specializes in fundraising. He is most likely a central figure in raising money.

So, yeah. Starting to look like foreigners are playing a key role in all of this.

That’s not all. I’ve put together a spreadsheet of 4000+ donors and their possible identities.

Politicians & Journalists

Even bigger: The names of the people involved. As Streiff wrote in an excellent piece on Sunday, “It is obvious that a non-trivial number of judges and elected officials are affiliated with the current insurrection.”

Not surprisingly, Alex Pretti, the man who was killed Saturday, was a member of the group; one of his neighbors confirmed that. And, so was Renee Good.

Then we have some Minneapolis elected officials.

Rep. Brad Tabke

Minnesota state Rep. Brad Tabke coordinates the Scott County ICE Watch Signal chat. Scott County is just outside Minneapolis.

This is not some vague third-party thing. This is Rep. Brad Tabke himself running/organizing/coordinating the Scott County ICE Watch program, including recruiting people for patrol, dispatch, training, and even food receiving/packing/delivery shifts at the New Creation Church location in Shakopee.

Minnesota state Rep. Alex Falconer

In a campaign stop, Falconer both admitted that he’s part of the chat and recruited participants. He said, in part:

I’m a community organizer at heart, and that’s part of what I’m trying to bring to the table.

I’m helping to lead the community response, rapid response network that we have, given any ICE situations…

We’ve got a couple of groups on the app Signal that we would love for you to join.

We know that Tabke was involved because people who signed up for that chat received a welcome message from him containing his personal cell phone number, and, obviously, Falconer admitted his role. For the rest of the people mentioned in this article, their involvement is not 100 percent confirmed; for many, their involvement is presumed because of the username in the chat and leadership position, but a definitive determination would need to be made by law enforcement or their own admission.

Aurin Chowdhury

One username is Aurin Chowdhury. An admin with the same name is on the Minneapolis City Council, representing Ward 12.

Prior to her post announcing Pretti’s shooting, the last thing Chowdhury posted was a video of a local pizzeria owner refusing to serve federal agents.

MPR’s Ben Hovland, NPR’s Sergio Martinez-Beltrán

Ben Hovland, with Minnesota Public Radio (shocker) seems to be part of the group. He covers immigration for the formerly publicly-funded outlet, and his profession is listed in the group chat. He has now locked his X profile. NPR’s Sergio Martinez-Beltrán is also listed as a participant, and his profession is also listed with his contact.

Hovland just happened to be “on-scene covering” the “protests” when Renee Good was shot.

Amanda Koehler, former Walz staffer, MN State Senate candidate Anita Smithson, and Minneapolis politician David Snyder were all listed, with Koehler and Smithson serving as admins and Snyder as a dispatcher.

Lt. Gov Peggy Flanagan (?)

This is the biggest name of all. An independent journalist working with Higby to determine the identities of the anti-ICE signal chat participants believes that Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is an admin in the chat going by the username Flan Southside.

Despite the Irish last name, which is her mother’s, Flanagan is the first female Native American to serve in that position. She is a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe.

As of a few hours ago, Higby stated that he’s not 100 percent certain that the username belongs to Flanagan, but there’s a bit of circumstantial evidence showing that might just be her:

Regardless, Flanagan is involved in stirring up local activists. She recently instructed leftists to put their bodies on the line to protest.

It’s clear that Walz, Frey, and Flanagan want this insurrection to continue because it takes the focus off the massive fraud that’s been occurring in that state, much of it with Walz’s knowledge. Related to that, it’s interesting that the address where the shooting occurred, 2614 Nicollet, an 1100 square foot building that’s home to eight businesses: Smart Therapy Center, New American Development Center, Nicollet Senior Center, United Wellness Center, African American Family Services, Millenium Health Services, Bloom Home Health, and Global Interpreting Innovations.

Do you notice a common theme with those businesses?

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Happy Hands Tim Walz Caves, Will Work With Trump and Tom Homan. Is This Why?

The situation in Minnesota is out of control, and finally, happy hands lunatic Tim Walz has chosen reason, deciding to cooperate with Trump officials in the wake of the recent shooting of Alex Pretti by Border Patrol agents in Minneapolis last Saturday. It sparked another round of outrage from the Left, who claim, without evidence, that he was executed. Meanwhile, some conservatives claimed wrongly that he was about to commit mass slaughter before he was shot—Pretti was legally carrying a firearm at the protest. It’s created a total mess on messaging, and now Trump is stepping in to clean up the mess, appointing Tom Homan, who I assume is going to be the point person, not just of the overall operation in the state, but with Walz personally in resolving this matter (via Fox 21/Associated Press):

Walz’ office said the call was “productive.”

“The Governor made the case that we need impartial investigations of the Minneapolis shootings involving federal agents, and that we need to reduce the number of federal agents in Minnesota,” his office wrote in a release.

Renee Good and Alex Pretti, both Minnesota residents and U.S. citizens, were fatally shot and killed by federal immigration officers in separate incidents in Minneapolis.

Trump agreed to talk to the Department of Homeland Security about ensuring the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension is able to conduct an independent investigation, Walz’ office said, and also agreed to look into either reducing the number of federal agents in Minnesota or working with the state “in a more coordinated fashion on immigration enforcement regarding violent criminals.”

Why the change of heart, Tim? For days, you’ve been on a psychopathic rant against federal immigration officers, comparing the situation to the third day of the Battle of Gettysburg, making not-so-subtle remarks about being at war with the federal government, and finally saying that what’s happening in your state, which you’ve allowed to devolve into anarchy, is not so dissimilar to the Nazis and Anne Frank. It’s crazy. You’re a crazy person, Tim—and screaming nonsense on a bullhorn atop a metal fence is mental patient antics.

It’s now led to another person getting shot and killed over your incessant lies. But there could also be the issue of the anti-ICE signal chat being exposed, where some top Minnesota Democrats, who allegedly include Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, might have something to do with it. Reporter Cam Higby posted the contents of this chat over the weekend, showing a vast, coordinated effort to disrupt ICE operations. Some could argue it’s a blueprint on how to commit acts of domestic terrorism.

BLUF:
Your call, America. But from where I sit, this isn’t January 2026 politics anymore.
It’s phase one of something we’ve spent decades trying to keep off our own soil.

Eric Schwalm

As a former Special Forces Warrant Officer with multiple rotations running counterinsurgency ops—both hunting insurgents and trying to separate them from sympathetic populations—I’ve seen organized resistance up close. From Anbar to Helmand, the pattern is familiar: spotters, cutouts, dead drops (or modern equivalents), disciplined comms, role specialization, and a willingness to absorb casualties while bleeding the stronger force slowly.

What’s unfolding in Minneapolis right now isn’t “protest.” It’s low-level insurgency infrastructure, built by people who’ve clearly studied the playbook.

Signal groups at 1,000-member cap per zone. Dedicated roles: mobile chasers, plate checkers logging vehicle data into shared databases, 24/7 dispatch nodes vectoring assets, SALUTE-style reporting (Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Time, Equipment) on suspected federal vehicles. Daily chat rotations and timed deletions to frustrate forensic recovery. Vetting processes for new joiners. Mutual aid from sympathetic locals (teachers providing cover, possible PD tip-offs on license plate lookups). Home-base coordination points. Rapid escalation from observation to physical obstruction—or worse.

This isn’t spontaneous outrage. This is C2 (command and control) with redundancy, OPSEC hygiene, and task organization that would make a SF team sergeant nod in recognition. Replace “ICE agents” with “occupying coalition forces” and the structure maps almost 1:1 to early-stage urban cells we hunted in the mid-2000s.

The most sobering part? It’s domestic. Funded, trained (somewhere), and directed by people who live in the same country they’re trying to paralyze law enforcement in. When your own citizens build and operate this level of parallel intelligence and rapid-response network against federal officers—complete with doxxing, vehicle pursuits, and harassment that’s already turned lethal—you’re no longer dealing with civil disobedience. You’re facing a distributed resistance that’s learned the lessons of successful insurgencies: stay below the kinetic threshold most of the time, force over-reaction when possible, maintain popular support through narrative, and never present a single center of gravity.

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“Sometimes it seems as if there are more solutions than problems. On closer scrutiny, it turns out that many of today’s problems are a result of yesterday’s solutions.”
-Thomas Sowell

The Year of the Can: The White Hot Silencer Business 20 Days In

When we spoke to suppressor makers late last month, projections varied, but all agreed that 2026 would be a significant growth year for the suppressor industry, now that the $200 tax stamp officially zeroed out at midnight on December 31, 2025.

But nobody could have expected the volume of eForms that would be submitted as we rang in the new year.

NSSF announced that the ATF reported processing over 150,000 eForms on January 1. The normal daily volume is roughly 2,500.

Welcome to the new normal.

Knox Williams, executive director of the American Suppressor Association (ASA), reported after meeting with ATF officials during SHOT Show here in Las Vegas that, to date, more than 260,000 eForms have been processed this January.

That figure includes all NFA forms, not just those covering suppressors. ASA hopes to obtain a further breakdown for its tracking of suppressor-specific transfers, but that data is not yet available.

However, we do have the final numbers for 2025. Last year, a total of 732,863 suppressors were transferred, falling short of the 746,380 transferred in 2024. That brings the total number of registered suppressors in the National Firearms Registration and Transfer Record (NFRTR) to 5,776,685—up from 4,419,578 at the end of 2024.

The shortfall was obviously not due to a lack of consumer demand, but rather to buyers refusing to pay the tax when they knew purchases would be tax-free on January 1. That 150,000-plus eForm volume on day one proves the point.

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Finally: Trump Pulls the US Out of United Nations’ International Gun Registry Scheme

President Donald Trump just delivered a long-overdue message to the global gun confiscation cartel: America is not taking orders from the United Nations.

In a major move for national sovereignty and Second Amendment freedom, the Trump administration has formally withdrawn the United States from the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, a UN-run reporting system that gun rights advocates have warned for years is part of the international bureaucracy’s long game to pressure nations into “standardized” gun restrictions.

What Is the UN Register of Conventional Arms?

UNROCA is a so-called “voluntary” United Nations registry where participating countries report information about weapons transfers, including categories of conventional arms and, in many cases, small arms and light weapons.

Supporters claim it promotes “transparency.”

But gun owners know how this game works.

Transparency is always the excuse and control is always the goal. Because once international bureaucrats start collecting data, they don’t stop at tracking tanks and fighter jets.

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HHS announces US has completed its withdrawal from the World Health Organization.

The Department of Health and Human Services and the State Department announced Thursday that the United States has completed its withdrawal from the World Health Organization over its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

President Donald Trump signed the executive order that began the process of withdrawing from the global organization last year, on the first day of his second term.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also cited issues with the organization’s failure to adopt urgent reforms, and its inability to demonstrate independence from the political influence of WHO member states.

“Today, the United States withdrew from the World Health Organization, freeing itself from its constraints, as President Trump promised on his first day in office,” the secretaries said in a joint statement. “This action responds to the WHO’s failures during the COVID-19 pandemic and seeks to rectify the harm from those failures inflicted on the American people.”

The departments claimed the WHO delayed declaring a global public health emergency and pandemic during the early stages of COVID-19 and failed to adopt meaningful reforms to address political influence and poor coordination in the aftermath of the global crisis.

The secretaries added that the United States will still interact with the organization to effectuate its withdrawal, but that all funding for, and staffing of, WHO initiatives have ceased.