Marco Rubio’s testimony on the Maduro op before the Senate indicates that the Trump administration very carefully awaited the right operational conditions before risking it, a process that Rubio called a “trigger operation”.
This attitude is likely to govern any action against Iran. Despite the media’s characterization of Trump as stupid and impulsive, the record reveals a decisive but exquisitely thorough command system. Given this, what might the US feasibly attempt in Iran with a reasonable prospect of success? Four types of actions are likely.
Operations to:
1. Further degrade Iran’s nuclear and missile programs through limited strikes or sanctions.
2. Disrupt IRGC command, control, and communications (C3) via cyber or targeted strikes.
3. Conduct decapitation strikes on IRGC or regime leadership.
4. Achieve full regime change or complete IRGC dissolution.
Objectives 1 and 2 have a good chance of success.
Objective 3 has a fair prospect of happening.
Objective 4 is probably out of reach in the very short run. But 1 and 2 would lay the foundation for 3 and the first triple would set up the 4th.
While there is no way to predict American action in Iran, it is likely to be cumulative and sequential with opportunistic branches.