CDR SALAMANDER: Gaza COA Decision Brief.

“Like I said … [Israel’s promise that ‘Gaza will never return to what it was’] had me ditch two of the my three COA [Course of Action] from this weekend. If you wanted to know how it shifted, my most dovish COA is gone, and my most harsh COA is now the center of my Overton Window. A planner must try to align with CI and D&G as it is understood – not how he wishes it to be.”

Here they are:

COA-A: Germany 1945

• The Gaza Strip will be segmented and block by block, field by field, be demilitarized. Person by person will be identified biometrically with the primary goal to “de-Hamas” the entire population. Responsible leaders will be found to administer civil requirements. Zero tolerance for breaking the peace. Peaceful civilians can stay. Violence will result in non-subsidized exile or imprisonment followed by exile. (NB: the voluntary or involuntary exile of Gazans is a problem in all COA. If you look from London, to Sydney, to NYC, the West does not need to import any more of those who want to bring their sectarianism to the West. Any of these highlighted nations will suffice.) After appropriate security environment is achieved, transition to home rule for all but military or diplomatic areas can continue.

COA-B: Danzig 1945

• As with COA-A, the Gaza Strip will be segmented, etc. The exception here is the humane (as opposed to the rather brutal 45-47 depopulation of Danzig (now Gdansk)) depopulation of the Gaza Strip. As German Danzig is now Polish Gdansk – and Danzig will never be the same as it was – so too could Gaza no longer be non-Israeli. As German excesses (understatement) in WWII opened the window for otherwise unacceptable exile of an entire population, Hamas Gaza’s beheading of infants and Einsatzgruppen LARPing through neighboring kibbutzim has opened that window for Gaza. Israel suffered for decades terror from Gaza and in 2005 gave them a chance to be self-governing. Instead, they became a nest of death squads. An Israeli-annexed Gaza would not have that problem. COA-B is the entry level response if you want to make a statement to enemies that will last generations, while still maintaining humanity – especially if exile is subsidized. Per capita income in Gaza is $2,764. Upon exile with no right for return, each will receive $3,000 in three installments over three years; $9,000 total. Cost: ~$6 billion a year for three years, $18 billion total.

COA-C: Carthage

• Segmentation and subsidized exile as per COA-B, but no immediate Israeli settlement for 50-years. Inventory World Heritage Sites, religious sites that existed prior to 1950, and cemeteries. Protect and preserve. Level every other building in the Gaza Strip except for needed infrastructure and national security related locations. Allow the strip to rewild and turned to a nature preserve. Allow for a reevaluation of Gaza’s status in 2073. Want the lesson to be remembered? Want to make sure the threat does not return? Want to make Gaza unlike it was? That will do it, yet allow the nation of Israel to maintain its humanity.

If A) seemed too harsh for most people’s tastes on Sunday and C) seemed impossible, just remember that once an Overton Window begins to shift, it can move far, rapidly.