“We never saw this coming.”

Oftentimes when we hear news of a shooting, it’s accompanied by reflections of those who believed the shooter never showed any signs of violence.

And while there certainly are some cases in which this holds true, in many — many — instances, the signs were there all along.

As the firearms debate continues to rage, with anti-gun politicians working to increase gun restrictions while pro-Second Amendment advocates labor to preserve constitutional rights, looking beyond soundbites to the facts is critical.

And the fact is that when it comes to gun violence, data show us that we actually largely know who kills and assaults with firearms.

The Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy provided a staggering snapshot: Even though only 15 percent of Americans over 15 years old have arrest records, approximately 90 percent of those who kill as adults have adult arrest records, “with an average adult criminal career [involving crimes committed as an adult rather than a child] of six or more years, including four major adult felony arrests.

In other words, murder is rarely — rarely — a first criminal offense. And nearly all perpetrators are already having significant interactions with the criminal justice system before they kill.

Put more pointedly, we have our hands on those who kill on average four or more times for a major felony of some sort before they murder.

Here’s something else we know from the same Harvard journal piece: “Insofar as studies focus on perpetrators, they show that neither a majority, nor many, nor virtually any murderers are ordinary ‘law abiding citizens.’”

And yet, in the name of reducing gun violence, anti-gun pundits and politicians often advocate for regulations targeting law abiding citizens. And then when these don’t work, they advocate for more restrictions targeting law abiding citizens.

Here’s something even more that we know—this from an article in the University of Chicago Journal of Law and Economics: “Shooters … tend to demonstrate ‘poor aggression control, impulsiveness, alcoholism, willingness to take risks, and sensation seeking.” Further, “Shooters tend to be between the ages of 15–24 and from low-income families.”

And in many cases, shooters have past experiences being placed outside the home in child welfare settings.

Now let me be clear, this is not to impugn low-income families or our child welfare system or the children impacted by it. To the contrary, these are our fellow Americans who are facing or have faced trials and suffering that we as a society should want to alleviate and work to alleviate.

Instead, what this information does — if we will pay attention — is offer a roadmap for addressing gun violence before it happens.

Here’s what actually works:

First, we must be willing to identify factors exhibited by individuals that suggest they might commit gun violence. These include individuals with multiple prior felony arrests or individuals demonstrating poor aggression control and with a history of police interactions.

And second, we must properly resource the intervention modalities that help our fellow Americans who are suffering and display predictive behaviors before they commit gun crimes.

Contrary to ineffective efforts to make illegal that which already is illegal, policymakers must focus on what actually works.

This would not only protect the constitutional rights of law-abiding citizens, but it would also redirect those who may choose violent crime toward a better path and deliver effective solutions that ultimately protect lives.

Jonathan Goldstein is a founding partner of Goldstein Law Partners and also owns a number of small manufacturing companies across Pennsylvania. He is a Board Member of the National Rifle Association but wrote this piece in his individual capacity.